At Colonial, early arrivals have the edge, plus Nick’s Picks

by Nick Hahn

Here’s a handicapping angle you can’t find in the program.  How long has a horse been on the grounds prior to the race?  In the Virginia Derby, recent history suggests early arrivals get a jump on the field.  Last year Silver Max arrived on Wednesday evening prior to the contest.  Paddy O’Prado ruled the stakes barn in his early week arrival in 2010.  In fact, both Paddy O’Prado and Battle of Hastings (2009) arrived early in the week for both sides of their sweeps of the Colonial Turf Cup and Virginia Derby.  On the contrary, in 2011, Air Support arrived, ran, won and departed in a 36-hour stopover when he nosed Banned at the wire. Banned was on the grounds for 5 days and went off the favorite, missing victory in the last stride.  Still, though it may not mean as much in the Colonial Turf Cup where only older horses are involved, for 3 year old colts, it appears to be a useful angle.

With four days of racing left, the meet standings aren’t decided and won’t likely be until the conclusion of Saturday’s 12-race card.  The “X-man” has a one win lead over “Special K” in the jockey standings — 23 to 22 — with Sheldon Russell at 16 and Richard Monterrey with 13.  Hamilton Smith gathered wins in pairs last week and has emerged with nine wins, one ahead of Reid Nagle.  Ferris Allen has steadily been finding the right spots and has 7 wins.  Robbie Bailes has 6 wins with Dane Kobiskie Lilith Boucher and Karen Dennehy Godsey tied with 5.  Nagle’s Big Lick remains the leading owner of the meet with 8 wins, while Larry Johnson has 6, including a pair last Saturday night prior to the Commonwealth Turf Festival.

Nick’s Picks