Gabby Gaudet’s longshots and exotic plays for November 8

In the latest edition of our weekly feature with Maryland racing analyst Gabby Gaudet, we discuss the sixth at Laurel Park, a maiden special weight race.

RACE 6

The skinny: Maiden special weight for three-year-olds and up going 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track.

Notably: The relatively compact seven-horse field includes three first starters and a filly as favorite; all seven runners are three.

Gabby’s bottom line: “An interesting race with a favorite who might be vulnerable.”

[boxify cols_use =”3″ cols =”6″ position =”right” box_spacing =”5″ padding =”3″ background_color =”gray” background_opacity =”10″ border_width =”1″ border_color =”blue” border_style =”solid” height =”575″ ]GABBY’S PEDIGREE SPOTLIGHT

• #1 AMIGO
• Florida-bred son of Hard Spun has finished second four times from seven starts.  Assuming a fast track, this will be his first time sprinting on a fast main track.
• Sire: Hard Spun is best remembered for his four Grade 1 placings, including seconds in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic — but his lone Grade 1 win came in the seven furlong King’s Bishop at Saratoga.  He finished four-for-four at distances less than one mile.
• Dam: Dat You Miz Blue, by Cure the Blues, won 13 times sprinting on the main track, including the Grade 3 Vagrancy, and earned over $735,000.
• Siblings: Three sibs to race include four-time winner Native Miz, by Chief Seattle, and two-time winner Grand Miz Blue, by Grand Slam, who won twice sprinting on the main track.
• Race record: Amigo has four seconds and a third from seven starts.  But… six of those tries were at a mile or longer, two on dirt, three on synthetic, and one on turf; his lone try sprinting, a neck defeat last out, came on a sloppy main track at Delaware Park. [/boxify]

 

Race analysis:

> #7 Wherethere’sfire is the favorite in here, and I think she’s a must-use based on her performance to date.  She was second in her last race, beaten a neck, and that was coming off a long layoff.  That was a very, very good performance, all things considered, and she does get blinkers on here, which should help.  She seems like a horse who’s starting to develop in her three-year-old season.  There are a couple of “buts,” however: for one thing, she’s had four tries — all sprinting on the dirt — without winning.  For another, she’s a filly taking on the boys, so this may be a tougher group than some she’s faced.

> #1 Amigo (discussed above) should appreciate the chance to sprint on the main track for trainer Jamie Ness.  He’s been second in four of his last five starts.  So even though he’s a seven-race maiden, and he’s had  his chances – he hasn’t done this yet.  Plus, I thought that was a pretty good race last time.

> #3 So Long Armstrong might be one to use. Victor Carrasco gets on him, which is usually a positive.  He’s been training up at Fair Hill, which is usually trainer Mike Trombetta’s first string horses. The mare, So Long Sonoma, by American Chance, was a Grade 3-placed sprinter, and this horse is by Malibu Moon, who stands for $95,000.   So there’s some interesting breeding there. Often Mike Trombetta doesn’t really look for them to fire first time out, so that may be a way to use him underneath rather than as a win wager.

[boxify cols_use =”3″ cols =”6″ position =”right” box_spacing =”5″ padding =”3″ background_color =”gray” background_opacity =”10″ border_width =”1″ border_color =”blue” border_style =”solid” height =”420″ ]GABBY’S LOCAL LOOK

• #1 ANY COURT INASTORM
• Maryland-bred son of Successful Appeal is out of the winning Valley Crossing mare Wings of the Storm.
• He was bred and is owned by Joan Everett.
• Sibs include six-time winner Geno Green (by Lion Heart).
• Local fans might know of another half-sib, also by Lion Heart: Love Heart.
• Love Heart has won nine of 26 starts locally and earned over $165,000.
• Love Heart, running for trainer John Hartsell, most recently won at Timonium in August and also won the Kattegat’s Pride Starter Handicap at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan day.[/boxify]

> #4 Any Court Inastorm is another making his debut, for trainer Jason Egan.  Even though his statistics with first-time starters might not be very high, when he has a talented horse, he does do well with them earlier in their careers.  And this horse seems like he might have some talent.  Lately some of the works have been on the slower side, but this horse has shown he is capable of some quick bullet works, so maybe these were just more for maintenance.

> #6 Kicker Bond debuts for trainer Jeff Runco.  This horse has obviously been posting some bullet works and could be fast.  The mare, Honour Colony, by Honour and Glory, was a stakes winner going long on the turf, and overall this pedigree makes you think this horse will want a route of ground, so you have to question whether today’s 5 1/2 furlong debut is really where they want this horse to be.  On the other hand, this is a $220,000 purchase, and since Jeff Runco is based at Charles Town, he could easily debut at there against what would probably be an easier field.  But his deciding to run for the $40,000 pot here against maiden special weight company is a very interesting angle.

WAGERING: I’d probably use the seven, Wherethere’sfire, in here, but I do think she’s vulnerable.  The horses I really want to pay attention to if you’re looking for prices would be the #1 Amigo, #4 Any Court Inastorm, and #6 Kicker Bond  in here.  I think the 6 is very interesting but I’d also go with Amigo given the breeding and the fact that he finally gets to a fast track.

PICK 5 SELECTIONS ($12,857 carryover)

• Race 5 – 7, 9, 10
• Race 6 – 1, 6, 7
• Race 7 – 5, 9, 11
• Race 8 – 1, 6, 9
• Race 9 – 4, 7, 8

“Good luck!”

(Featured image, of Ben’s Cat, by Laurie Asseo.)