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Derby Bill podcast: Handicapping the Penn Mile Pick 4
Photo by Laurie Asseo.
Derby Bill Watson, the former on-air handicapper for Colonial Downs, turns his attention to Saturday’s Grade 3 Penn Mile and its supporting events. The card kicks off with four consecutive stakes, capped by the Penn Mile.
Also on tap on this card are, in race number order:
- $200,000 Penn Oaks (3yo fillies, 1 mile turf) — Can Virginia-bred SweetVictory deny the favorite, G3 winner Pricedtoperfection (9-5), in an intriguing test;
- $150,000 Pennsylvania Governors Cup (3yo and up, 5 furlongs turf) — Can the great Ben’s Cat win his third straight race — at age 10! — and 33rd overall in a race he’s won just once in four tries?
- $200,000 Mountainview Handicap (3yo and up, 1 1/8 miles) — Can favored Red Rifle (8-5) post his first win on conventional dirt since 2014?
- $500,000 Grade 3 Penn Mile (3yo, 1 mile turf) — Can filly Catch a Glimpse run the boys off their feet?
Check out Derby Bill’s affordable $12 Pick 4, which still gives you a chance to hit it rich!
MUSIC:
“First Call” and “Guts and Bourbon”
Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
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Very good analysis of the Penn pic-4 and certainly agree the wet weather will likely influence race strategy. However, I was surprised that Sweet Victory (#5 – 1st race) didn’t get much love in the discussion. She is by Blame, a rising turf sire whose off-spring are excellent turfers and proven on soft turf. She is improving with every start and the Pletcher/Castellano angle has an impressive 26% success rate. Sweet Victory winning the 1st race will be “sweet” for my pic-4.
Thanks, Jerry T! Re: Sweet Victory – She’s a nice horse – you’re right – and has a big shot in that race. I think she got lost in the shuffle!
Jerry “T”
Going against a rising star in Todd Pletcher barn was not and never overlooked ..
Just Class level competition similar to trying a undeafeated longshot at 8-1 in a priceless race 1
Sweet Victory numbers are not as good a history as others in race but agree 9-2 is juicy improving Virginia bred
has more pick 4 value for sure and wish you luck.
With heavy storms seen all spring in east and shorter then expected fields dissapointing
Just using the $12 ticket that has and maybe will see the 1ST RACE mirrow busterticket grave
Potentual leaving out Pletcher Virginia bred other then in Triple Crown Pletcher races has in past had my Sunday morning confessiIon BOOTH only exceptable to ONE man in mirrow…..and that`s not a exagoration like NEXT Sundays Upset bid too.
Nice call on Virginia bred mild upset avoiding a wild race for biggest career win
Thanks DBW. Check out the Pace difference between Sweet Victory’s last two Gulfstream races before Saturday’s Penn Oaks. Rarely do you see that much improvement from one race to the next. Keep an eye on this girl ….. her best days are ahead.