In Focus: Wagering Charles Town Oaks Day stakes

by | Sep 22, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Top Stories

Rose Brier

Covey Trace won the 2016 Charles Town Oaks. Photo by Coady Photography.

Our In Focus Guide offers the most in-depth analysis and commentary on the seven stakes on Saturday’s Charles Town Oaks day stakes at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races.

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

RACE 4: IT’S ONLY MONEY STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Post time 6:22 p.m., $50,000 purse, 4 1/2 furlongs, WV-bred 3yo and up

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. George Town Cat (15-1): Eight-time local winner has never shown this type of quality; would be a big surprise here
  2. Last Plunge (15-1): A $6,250 claim back in April, this Rideoutt trainee won five times in ’16 but is winless in 10 this season
  3. Greenway Court (5-2): Let’s not worry too much about that last; this guy never was too partial to 7f, and the effort probably gave him a big fitness bump for his second start of the year as he cuts back to preferred distance; will look for stalk-and-pounce trip
  4. Chasin Rush (3-1): Speedster owns eight wins at the trip and figures to be winging from in front; trainer Patterson batting an even .500 this year; one of five from last-out win scored on return
  5. Nay’s Back (6-1): Hard-hitting mare exits a plus heat which produced three next-out winners but hasn’t raced in four months and takes on the boys here; have to wonder if this might be more of a work to sharpen her for another run at the Cavada next month
  6. Cat Come Home (10-1): Will need a more alert break than he got last out, when running on from last, but he rallied willingly for the place; can improve in third off freshening
  7. Eutaw Street (4-1): Speedy sort’s never been worse third at the distance and had a useful ’17 bow last out when second in allowance company after leading most of the way; defending champ rates a major shot to repeat
  8. New Windsor (9-2): Four-year-old Windsor Castle gelding never seems to run a bad race but makes his first start since March after two two-turn wins in a row; he’s never been out of the money at the trip, but you have to wonder if the 7f Onion Juice is his WVBC goal, making this a good spot to prep

THE PICKS

  1. #7 Eutaw Street– Can defend ’16 title in second off layoff after sharp seasonal bow
  2. #6 Cat Come Home — Stuck with it despite tough trip, makes third start off freshening
  3. #3 Greenway Court — Veteran gained fitness in 7-furlong try
  4. #4 Chasin Rush — Trainer Patterson batting .500 on the season; ignore him at your peril

Queen Caroline

Hip Hop. Photo by The Racing Biz.

Race 7 — RACHEL’S TURN STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Post time 7:48 p.m., $50,000 purse, 4 1/2 furlongs, WV-bred 2yo fillies

FIELD IN FULL

  1. Wolfblade (6-1): This Midshipman filly from the Jeff Runco barn was tons the best on debut, winning off by four wrapped up late after a slow-ish start and wide journey, shows four works in two months since
  2. Ghost Fever (15-1): Let’s not judge her debut too harshly; this miss was on hold for quite a ways awaiting running room, then a little green and tired when finally finding some; she’s bred to be a star: sibs include $300k earner Hidden Canyon, 8-for-8 Bullets Fever
  3. Silken Belle (20-1): Fiber Sonde filly’s still a maiden after four tries — hard to see that changing here
  4. Nellysford (10-1): Pretty easy maiden-breaker last out after breaking a step slow, but none of seven to run back has won next out; shows four interim works for a high-percentage barn
  5. Bound to Windsor (7-2): Super-impressive debut for this Windsor Castle filly who overcame troubled trip to win easily; normal second race improvement plus a smoother trip makes her a player in here
  6. Noblame (9-5): How this Joe Sharp-trained Blame filly will react to the bullring or the 4 1/2 furlong distance remain to be seen, but she’s done enough right — including being the only one here with two wins — to warrant a long look; longtime local pilot JD Acosta takes the mount
  7. I Am Furh Real (15-1): Has lost ground in the stretch in all three starts and faces rivals that have bested her
  8. Hip Hop (4-1): Throttled TIM maidens last out and one of three to run back has won; solid 2yo barn, but this one’s not likely to have it her own way on the distance cutback; talented local Gerald Almodovar keeps the mount
  9. Corky Punch (12-1): Up late to score last out in second career start over I Am Furh Real and will need to step it up here

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #8 Hip Hop — Bullring victory gives her the nod over favorite in here
  2. #6 Noblame – Can’t fault anything she’s done to date; Acosta in the irons a plus
  3. #5 Bound to Windsor – Tons the best on debut despite troubled trip
  4. #2 Ghost Fever – Tough trip in last, plus bred to be a star — worth a flyer at likely long odds

Lovable Lady

Wonder How. Photo by The Racing Biz.

Race 8 — HENRY MERCER MEMORIAL STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Post time 8:17 p.m., $50,000 purse, 4 ½ furlongs, WV-bred 2yo

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Mr. Jacoby (15-1): Front-running score last out to break maiden in second career try but note that none of six to run back won on return; hasn’t run in two months but note ultra-sharp breeze on 9/16; regular pilot Peltroche jumps ship to other McKee runner here
  2. Binn Goode (15-1): Tough draw for this Windsor Castle gelding who has to face three who’ve beaten him; showed improved zip last time
  3. Wonder How (4-1): Almodovar in the irons won’t hurt this Jersey Town colt, and cutback in distance also a positive, but others likely to entice more
  4. William and Mary (5-2): Nice effort racing out of the outside stall to overtake foes for debut score, and one from there has won on return; interesting to see him gelded off last; sharp work 9/16
  5. Owen’s Mo (10-1): WV-bred Uncle Mo offspring not plentiful, and this one’s going to have to step it up to live up to dad’s stud fee; improved effort in last as odds-on chalk and first with new trainer Corrales, but he’ll need a big step forward here
  6. Grand Fiber (8-1): Third time was the charm for this Fiber Sonde gelding who got away with a slightly easier pace in last and kicked on home nicely; Peltroche picks this runner over Mr. Jacoby, but he’ll have to overhaul two that have beaten him
  7. Owen’s Way (10-1): First dirt got it done for this Scat Daddy colt, as he romped to a 10-length score at MNR; couldn’t have done that one any easier, but other speed types likely to complicate repeat bid
  8. Punch Your Brother (12-1): Improved try in last at MC 25k level and distance cutback a positive; trainer-jockey combo have been clicking
  9. Dionysus’ Chalice (9-2): Figgins trainee romped on debut, defeating two who are here; barn just 2-for-23 with last out maiden-breaking 2yo; gelded since last
  10. True Heir (6-1): Likely to find the waters a little more to his liking back among WV-breds; working solidly towards this one
  11. (AE) Sterling Caesar (30-1): Adds blinkers – and is gelded – since disastrous debut

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #4 William and Mary – Graduated (see what we did there?!?) nicely after wide journey; gelded since
  2. #9 Dionysus’ Chalice – Easiest of debut winners
  3. #6 Grand Fiber – Peltroche picks this McKee trainee who won last out over another with similar resume; has finished behind top two selections here
  4. #10 True Heir – May enjoy the comforts of home after rough trip to Delaware

Lovable Lady

Moonlit Song. Photo by Coady Photography.

Race 9 — SADIE HAWKINS STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Post time 8:46 p.m., $50,000 purse, 7 furlongs, WV-bred fillies/mares 3yo and up

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Romantic Cork (4-1): Hard-hitter’s been in the triple 13 straight, including the Original Gold in April when bested by two of these; needs help from the pace
  2. Quality Moves (20-1): Jean Rofe trainee looks to be in deep here
  3. T Rex Express (8-1): Apparent experiment in taking her off the pace didn’t pan out two back, so back to front-running ways – and winning – in last; figures to be involved from the first jump, but note winless ledger in three stakes tries, all runner-up efforts
  4. Boppin Rocket (12-1): Speedy Contreras trainee was sixth in here a year ago, defeated boys last out in prep for this one; can move forward here, and jock-trainer combo solid
  5. Blisstikus (15-1): Hard to escape the impression that this 7yo’s best efforts are behind her, as she enters on a 14-race losing streak; will look to close from off the pace
  6. Candy Man’s Girl (6-1): Last year’s Cavada winner prepped in this event then, too, finishing second; nothing wrong with last when late momentum stopped by drifting winner, and regular Casey rider Antonio Lopez will be up
  7. Spa Creek (9-2): Closing sort likely prepping here for 9-furlong WVBC Distaff, which she’s won the last two years; leading trainer Runco will leg up go-to rider Bocachica on a runner who’s won just two of 13 at the trip
  8. Lies and Scandals (6-1): Sophomore hasn’t done much wrong except run into Moonlit Song, who’s beaten her five of seven contests; tactical sort should be in striking distance of the lead early and might just offer a square price
  9. Jacky’s Notion (12-1): Gave ’em the slip two back to post a 10-1 upset but that was a 6-horse field — not likely to have it work that way here, and she’s generally been a cut below the best in here
  10. Moonlit Song (3-1): Talented Grams trainee already has three stakes wins, and two-back third came after a terrible start; that let her show a new tactical dimension though, and breaking from the outside gives regular pilot Hiraldo the chance to lead or stalk as circumstances warrant
  11. (ae) Tricky Windsor (12-1): Deep closer was beaten by Moonlit Song, Lies and Scandals in the Bishop last out, and a similar fate may await her here
  12. (ae) Kluvyabye (15-1): Even if she draws in, this 7yo, front-running mare’s likely role is blowing up the pace, not winning the race

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #10 Moonlit Song – Sophomore has the look of a star, goes for fourth stakes win here
  2. #3 T Rex Express – Toss the mess two back when taken off the pace, and she clearly fits here; arrives off romp at MNR
  3. #6 Candy Man’s Girl – ’16 Cavada winner may not be all the way cranked here but still good enough to make some noise
  4. #1 Romantic Cork – Will be rolling late, enters with two straight wins

Lovable Lady

Charitable Annuity. Photo by Coady Photography.

Race 10 — FRANK GALL MEMORIAL STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Post time 9:15 p.m., $50,000 purse, 7 furlongs, WV-bred 3yo and up

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Big Bad Dude (15-1): Lido Palace gelding has run decently since the Rideoutt claim but looks to be a cut below the best in here
  2. Creative Mist (20-1): This Freddie Johnson trainee would be a major surprise in here
  3. Gold Sovereign (20-1): Stephen Got Even gelding has a single win from 13 starts at the trip and would need a major form reversal here
  4. Charitable Annuity (5-2): 2015 WV Breeders Classic winner (and ’16 runner-up) has had only a middling season with a win from five starts but two back effort was solid; seems not to be quite the horse he was last year, but still a solid presence here, especially if a lively pace develops
  5. Castle Bound (12-1): Thrashed by a couple of these last out in ALW test but owns right to move forward here, and note bullet work in interim; the price should be square on a runner who has four wins at the trip
  6. Start Line (3-1): Seven-time winner at the trip has tactical ability and enters with two-race win streak, last achieved under a confident ride as he was wide on both turns
  7. Follow the Notion (10-1): Talented runner shifts into the barn of a 2-for-103 trainer over the last five years and has been away since April; runner has fired fresh before, but you’ll want a price on him here
  8. Unrideabull (5-1): Lightly raced sophomore absolutely laid waste to the Leavitt field in second two-turn try, and two of five to run back have won; doesn’t need the lead but has the wheels to get it and can contend here
  9. Prince of Windsor (6-1): Five-time winner at the trip ran a big one last out when nearly holding on after being hounded by multiple rivals throughout; may have a chance to work out a better trip from outside post
  10. Scythe (8-1): Career-best effort last out when winning in front-running style, but this Leslie Condon trainee will have to do it with other early types; drawn outside a plus, as is Almodovar in the irons
  11. (ae) Perfect Cross (12-1): Three of this veteran’s four career wins, including best-ever win in 2014 WVBC Onion Juice, came at this trip; has made only six starts, with no wins, since end of ’15

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #6 Start Line – Has shown he belongs, won last under very confident ride
  2. #9 Prince of Windsor – Dead game try in last
  3. #4 Charitable Annuity – Class of the field has done best work beyond a mile but has run well at shorter distances, too
  4. #8 Unrideabull – Won for fun in last, steps up to face elders here; a good effort opens some doors

Lovable Lady

Line of Best Fit. Photo by The Racing Biz.

Race 11 — PINK RIBBON STAKES

RACE PARTICULARS: Post time 9:45 p.m., $50,000 purse, 7 furlongs, Fillies and mares 3yo and up

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Super Sharp (15-1): Had a bit of traffic trouble last out but will have to turn tables on two who bested her; will need career-best effort here; top jock Alex Cintron in for the mount
  2. Line of Best Fit (9-2): Brave effort in last when, after being on hold a long way, she darted through a narrow opening to get up late in the Shine Again; recent work suggests a route of ground might be more in her wheel house, but two-turn 7f trip here could work too, and she has a win doing it
  3. Lake Ponchatrain (15-1): Game try to be third in the Shine Again at 37-1; seven-time winner over the strip and never out of the money at the distance, this Ernest Haynes trainee has a chance to outrun those odds
  4. Rose Tree (5-1): Talented Jonathan Sheppard trainee tries her elders for the first time here after back-to-back stakes placings against PA-breds; like to see regular pilot Wolfsont in for the ride, but she’s going to need a big one here
  5. Renaissance Rosie (10-1): Owner Bob Cole’s enjoyed good success with claims, including recent stake winner Blu Moon Ace, and will need this one to run huge to get the money here; shows a bullet work since last, and trainer Albright is 15% off the claim in the last five years
  6. Riveter Gloria (12-1): Kevin Patterson-trained horses pretty much always show speed, and this one got cooked up front in her last, fading to fourth in a race from which the only runner to run back, Line of Best Fit, won next out; added ground probably isn’t a plus, but she might find the going up front a bit easier here
  7. Sweet On Smokey (4-1): All this Claudio Gonzalez trainee does is run good races, including a just-miss runner-up effort in this event last year; projects to be mid-pack or farther back early, running on late; winless skein at the trip a concern
  8. It’s the Truth (10-1): Third-place finish in last may look better than it was; none of five to run back has been better than fifth in their follow-up… Bit of a ‘tweener distance-wise, might find two-turn 7f trip to her liking; jockey-trainer combo hitting at 29%
  9. Ultimate Holiday (6-1): Has had several unsuccessful stakes tries, and lone trip to CT was a 24-length beatdown when fifth in the Sugar Maple in the spring; best recent form on turf, and though trainer Nevin has a solid turf-to-dirt record, we’re inclined to take a wait-and-see approach on this one
  10. Kathballu (7-2): Ken McPeek trainee has kept the right sort of company and should appreciate a bit of class relief here; Javier Castellano in the irons a good sign, and though she’s never raced here, this Bluegrass Cat mare does own a stakes win at the distance over a similar bullring at DeD
  11. (ae) She’s Going Strong (20-1): Local runner looks to be up against it in here
  12. (ae) Sweet Legacy (10-1): Talented runner, but this would be an odd spot to make her first start in a year
  13. (ae) Hone In (12-1): Her only win in her last 19 was in an off-the-turf allowance

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #10 Kathballu – Too much class for these, plus owns bullring stakes win at DeD
  2. #3 Lake Ponchatrain – Toss the turf try and you see a stalwart local who keeps outrunning her odds
  3. #2 Line of Best Fit – At some point the busy schedule catches up to her, but she’s in terrific form right now
  4. #4 Rose Tree – Not an easy spot to tackle her elders for the first time, but this miss has talent and brings regular pilot with her

Lovable Lady

Shimmering Aspen. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

Race 12 — GRADE 3 CHARLES TOWN OAKS

RACE PARTICULARS: Post time 10:18 p.m., $300,000 purse, 7 furlongs, 3yo fillies

THE FIELD IN FULL

  1. Berned (8-1): Toss the turf try last out and this one looks fine in here; couldn’t go with Abel Tasman or next-out G1 Alabama winner Elate two back, but those sorts aren’t here. This miss may appreciate cutback to 7f, and trainer Moton and rider Lynch have had success together
  2. Astrollinthepark (15-1): Larry Jones trainee figures to need a major form reversal here after dismal showing in the Alma North, back in June; three rivals that day won next out. She’s been away three months but training forwardly towards this.
  3. Overture (5-1): Nothing wrong with this one’s last couple, including a win and third in G3 events; stuck with it a long way before tiring last out effort at MTH in race that’s produced two next-out winners; has been sent to early leads in her route races, but win at the trip came in stalking fashion
  4. Stay Fond (12-1): High-end connections and inability to defeat N1X horses at three different tracks make this one tough to endorse on top while also likely to be overbet
  5. Tequilita (7-2): Matz trainee has kept the right sort of company and outside of seventh-place showing in the KY Oaks when 40-1 has shown up every time; fifth-place finisher from last won G2 Prioress in her follow-up, and this one rallied late to just miss the place. Has a graded win at the distance.
  6. Chanel’s Legacy (12-1): Wide journey didn’t help matters in last when 37-1 and finishing well behind Tequilita and others in the Test. She’s showing two works since, owns four stakes wins, and gets local pilot Jose Montano in the irons.
  7. R Angel Katelyn (12-1): Dead game effort in last when hounded throughout and nearly pulled off the win; has been away for two months but has record of firing fresh. Only off-the-board finish came in G3 Miss Preakness and owns a couple of 7 furlong stakes wins, but presence of other speed complicates matters.
  8. Munny Spunt (4-1): Talk about a successful claim — $25,000 claim for trainer Doug O’Neill won G3 Torrey Pines via DQ two races later, rallying late with positive pace scenario after wide journey. Race shape may portend a repeat
  9. Sine Wave (8-1): Career-best effort to be runner-up in last when buried inside throughout; can find good stalking spot from outside with regular pilot Albin Jimenez up; cross-entered in the G1 Cotillion at Parx
  10. Downtown Mama (6-1): Linda Rice trainee saw career-starting, three-race win streak snapped last out in the G2 Prioress on a muddy SAR surface; has talent to make amends here, but other speed types may complicate matters, and note regular pilot Jose Ortiz opts to go to PRX today. Will need another step forward here.
  11. (ae) Yorkiepoo Princess (15-1): Kantharos filly’s 2yo promise hasn’t really panned out, and she’s working on a five-race losing streak — most not close — coming here. This $8000 auction purchase has more than earned her way to date but likely needs easier company than this.
  12.  (ae) Who’s the Lady (12-1): Up late to run down R Angel Katelyn two back but she was out of her league in the MTH Oaks when last at 46-1. Tough call here.
  13. (ae) Shimmering Aspen (5-1): Ultra-talented Rodney Jenkins trainee rates a major shot if she draws in; owns two easy-as-can-be stakes wins at seven furlongs and has tactical ability to make a good trip; regular pilot comes in for the mount
  14. (ae) Stormy Embrace (15-1): Has a single placing in five stakes tries.

You can also click here to get a two-page PDF version of this guide.

THE PICKS

  1. #13 Shimmering Aspen – Expected to draw in off the AE, she’ll get a class test here — but she’s won her last two like she’s ready to pass with flying colors
  2. #5 Tequilita – Graded winner at the distance has kept sterling company
  3. #8 Munny Spunt – Regular pilot Van Dyke makes the cross-country journey with this claiming horse-made-good
  4. #3 Overture – Has a win at the trip and a G3 score; no need for trainer Mott to be here unless he thinks she’s ready to fire