Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 13, 2019

ANALYSIS

RACE 1 

Lot of turf on the card today, kicking off with a grassy, one-mile maiden event, and we’ll take #8 New York Rock Star (4-1) on top. The Jamie Ness trainee gave a good account of herself on debut last out at Colonial, closing nicely from the rear for second, and the daughter of Macho Uno out of a Rock Hard Ten mare may appreciate the added ground on offer here. One runner worth a look at a price is #7 Gypsy Girl (12-1) for trainer Anthony Pecoraro; she didn’t show a lot on debut against maiden special weight rivals, but Pecoraro’s numbers with maidens making their second starts, horses receiving Lasix for the first time, and with rider Jeremy Rose all are impressive, including positive ROIs.

RACE 2 

In her last two, the Jerry Robb-trained #4 Music Maker (7-2) has outrun her odds. She’s gone off at 15-1 or higher in both, both against allowance foes, and finished third and fourth. Dropped into an easier spot, she can move forward today. She’ll likely be trying to run down the speedy #8 Feelin Foxie (2-1), who led throughout to win at a similar level last out while going six furlongs. That runner figures to control the early pace; whether she’ll stay on to the end is the question. Also, don’t sleep on #11 Secret Or Not (6-1), who draws in off the also-eligible list, defeated similar two back, and makes her third start of the season here.

RACE 3 

The favorite in this two-year-old maiden turf sprint is #11 Dreaming of Love (9-5), who’s been second or third in all four of his tries, three of them as the favorite and twice at odds-on. He’s certainly a player here if he can transfer his dirt form to the grass, and interesting note about him is that, while in his first three starts, he made the lead and then failed late, last time he was able to re-rally in the lane. It makes you wonder if he’ll profit from having a target to run at. Still, we’ll try to beat him with #4 The Poser (6-1), who closed nicely to be third on debut on the grass. If he can break more alertly, that should allow him to showcase his late run to best advantage.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4 

Big effort last time out for #6 Creative Artist (5-2), who won the speed duel early and then had enough to hold off favored #11 McPherson (3-1) late after that rival had sat a good trip off the duel. A repeat of that last should be enough for Creative Artist, who’s already a three-time winner (and the only one in the field). Another who could have something to say about the outcome is the class-dropping #8 Time Flies By (5-1), who was beaten just two lengths last time out against better after a wide journey.

RACE 5 

The major players in this contest, #5 Lady by Choice (9-5) and #3 Discreet Deceit (2-1), both are veterans of some two dozen-plus races and both are dropping from recent tries against better. Either could win, but we have a preference in an allowance/optional claimer like this one for horses moving through their conditions, which points us to #2 Zorally (5-2). The Dale Capuano trainee made her first start of 2019 a winning one back in June when besting introductory allowance rivals and owns two wins in four tries at the trip. 

RACE 6 

It’ll be first time on the turf for the speedy filly #10 Maybe an Omen (2-1), who has been third and second in two prior tries, both on the main track, and retains the services of jockey Trevor McCarthy. If she can transfer her dirt form to the grass — her siblings are a combned 0-for-3 on the lawn — she’ll be tough in here. One runner worth a look is the Ham Smith trainee #7 Bethabara (6-1); the trainer had entered two in here but leaves only this first-timer to face the starter. Also: #9 Lookin Dynamic (4-1) doesn’t have much turf in his immediate background (siblings are 1-for-32 on the lawn), but the Mike Trombetta trainee is a half-sister to Dynamic Strike (over $400,000 in earnings) and Another Broad (more than $250,000 in earnings).

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

The formful #2 Pantyhose (4-1) is our choice in this one for a mild upset. The Kenny Decker trainee has won two straight, been in the triple four straight, and makes her second start off a two-month break today. She should sit in mid-pack and have a good chance to run on late for the money. We give her the nod over the favorite, #7 Warm (3-1), who two back crushed never-won-two rivals at Saratoga and today switches back to the main track in her second start for trainer Brittany Russell.

RACE 8 

Veteran #3 Tricky Lion (5-1) finds his lowest level in this spot and with any luck has a chance to move forward. His last four starts have come on the main track — two of those were originally scheduled for the turf — and his two turf tries prior to that were against much better than these. The first of those, back in May, was a good fourth in which he led a long way before losing by just a length. In the second, he was fractious in the post parade, hopped and stumbled inward at the break, and spotted the field an immediate six to eight lengths before running evenly the rest of the way. A clean trip would go a long way to enhancing his chances today, though he’ll have to contend with, among others, #4 War Stroll (6-1), who’s likely to appreciate firmer turf after his last half-dozen grass sprint races have come on good or yielding ground.

RACE 9 

The day closes with a never-won-two starter/optional claimer, and we’ll include in our mix a pair of horses with earlier starts against $25,000 sorts who graduated against maiden special weight foes last out. That includes our top pick, the Kelly Rubley-trained #7 Shake D Moon (9-2), who last out stepped up to beat Delaware maidens and retains the services of Julian Pimentel today; and third choice #10 Tilaka (6-1), who’s been one-two three of five on the turf.