Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 15, 2019

ANALYSIS

RACE 1 

In her debut, #6 Russian Melody (7-2) was asleep at the switch, spotting the field a huge gap before rushing up to reach contention and then tiring against better than these. She can make amends against this modest group with a reasonably alert break.. Favored #3 Simmard Shenanigan (2-1) can certainly win here, but we’ll pass on short odds on a runner who’s 0-for-16 with several defeats versus similar…

RACE 2 

Amateur rider race on tap here and a wide-open group… #5 Charismatic Blue (5-1) has recent competitive efforts against better, makes first start for Zoe Valvo… Must contend with, among others, #8 Tir Na Nog (9-2), who had a useful return to action last out after a year away in a race that’s produced a next-out winner…

RACE 3 

Rather abrupt drop of #2 Gallanor (3-1) from allowance to $16,000 claiming level poses a bit of concern but recent tries against better fit snugly with this group, and last-out allowance has produced two next-out winners… #6 Awesome Park (12-1) broke her maiden two back in first try on the lawn, lands in right spot today and gets Carrasco in the irons… Look for #7 Payntdembluesaway (5-2) to grab the early advantage, try to take ’em all the way…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4 

In her debut #1 Creative Alibi (7-2) saw a more rugged group than this one, tackling special weight rivals at Ellis Park in a race that’s produced two next-out winners with winner Lemon Scat returning to be fourth in a $500k stake at Kentucky Downs… 

RACE 5 

Frequent bridesmaid #2 Big Boots (9-5) is the deserving favorite and most likely winner in this spot but was the beaten favorite at this level two back and has been second four times in 10 starts… Let’s see if we can get an upset with #11 Belmullet (8-1), who gets blinkers on in his first try in the red-hot Mark Reid barn (see above), which has sent out five horses first off the claim in the last 90 days, all of which have finished in the money…

RACE 6 

Solid group in this allowance contest with a 7-2 favorite in #5 Bustoff, who’s won four straight for three different trainers and figures to be sitting third or so in the early running here… Top choice #4 Christopher (6-1) broke his maiden nicely at first asking (beating a 1-5 favorite) and didn’t run a bad one last out when third in first try against winners behind 20-time winner Guns of Steel and eight-time winner Wild Scat Blue; the former is 3-1 second choice on the morning line for minor stake at Monmouth this afternoon…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

It’ll be first off the claim and first time out since April for #7 Tiz a Sharpie (4-1), who’ll also get blinks on for trainer Lacey Gaudet; this one failed as favorite last time out but has been training forwardly and catches a manageable group today…

RACE 8 

None of the horses who’ve run before in this two-year-old maiden claimer have shown much, but we’ll nevertheless give #7 Yess Pec (3-1) another crack today; trainer Anthony Pecoraro is 12-for-23 with maiden claimers making their second career starts while getting Lasix for the first time… Don’t forget to include first-timers #6 Newly Acquired (6-1) and #9 Fifty Seven Chevy (8-1) on the ticket…

RACE 9 

Class-dropping #8 Seville Barber (2-1) can be tough in this starter/optional claimer, and though he’s wheeling back on short rest, having started September 7, trainer Tim Woolley is 2-for-7 running horses back on less than 10 days rest; also note that rider Jevian Toledo rode both Woolley horses — this one and #9 Mr. d’Angelo (6-1) — last time out and lands here… Wondering if #7 Itgot Grandma (15-1) can spice things up a bit in here; he won his only turf try against $25,000 maidens, and though the fig came back light, three of six to run back on turf finished in the triple next out…

RACE 10

Perhaps tilting at windmills, but… what about #10 Top Hat Treason (8-1) in the finale? He hasn’t shown a ton in two dirt tries and will have to navigate a trip from the far outside, but he gets blinks on and is bred top and bottom to like the lawn; dam High Cry was a 10-time winner on the turf…