Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 20, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 1:10 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $2,770; Super High 5 — $2,283; Late Pick 5 — $20,292

Notable: 

ANALYSIS

RACE 1 — OFF THE TURF

Off the turf in the lid-lifter (and all day), but everyone except the 5-horse remains in… This race should run directly through #8 Prevail Upon (5-2). The Graham Motion trainee was a rallying third on debut at this level and is bred to love the added ground he’ll get here… Blinks on for #6 Distilled Spirit (6-1), who came in fourth after stalking the pace in his debut. Winner Laddie Liam returned to be third in the Maryland Million Nursery yesterday, and the Cal Lynch barn does as well as any local operation with juveniles… Trainer Tres Abbott is 4-for-12 with horses making their debut in maiden claiming company, as is the case with #12 More Than Miles (10-1), who’s been training forwardly…

Selections: 8-6-12-4

RACE 2 

We’ll take a swing here with #7 Bovary (5-1). The First Samurai filly showed absolutely nothing in her debut, but that was in maiden special weight company at Saratoga; she’s dropping from probably the toughest maiden company in the nation to bottom-level maiden claimers at Laurel, and you have to think that if she has any of what her prior connections imagined she had when putting her against those tigers (a group that included Sharing, who won the Selima Stakes next out), she’ll have too much for these. Mark Reid, who is 4-for-8 with horses making their first start for him while in maiden claiming company, takes over training duties from Bill Mott… Look for an improved effort from #1 What a Tart (5-1), who stumbled leaving the gate and broke outward while dropping well off the pace before finishing strongly last time…

Selections: 7-1-2-9

RACE 3 — OFF THE TURF

This race seems likely to come down to #8 Incorporate (9-2) and #11 Blame the Kids (12-1) for top honors, and we give the nod to the former. The former has been running steadily and generally has shown good early zip. The latter has been off since May 31 and will look to close in a race that doesn’t seem to have a ton of early lick…

Selections: 8-11-9-12

ANALYSIS

RACE 4 

Top selection #3 Aveenu Malcainu (4-1) ran a good one last out when rallying to the lead before having to settle for second behind the very good Top Line Growth. A repeat of that migth be enough in here… #5 Pulsate (9-2) should be fine getting back on the main track after three straight stakes tries on the lawn; in his last main-track try, in April at AQU, he won a race that’s produced three runners who ran first or second in stakes company… Jorge Navarro sends out the likely favorite in #1 Articulator (7-2), who certainly fits here, but it’s worth noting that, while Navarro wins at a 30% clip overall, his strike rate at Laurel is about half that…

Selections: 3-5-1-10

RACE 5 — OFF THE TURF

Gee, #6 Runforthemunnings (9-2) has run some good races on the main track, including a runner-up effort last time out behind the formful Onemoregreattime, and catching an off-the-turf crew today ought to be enough to make him a winner… The speed fig wasn’t much, but #4 Ziggy Mon (15-1) broke his maiden the way a good horse should, running them off their feet to win by open lengths while geared down. He can step forward and retains rider J. D. Acosta…

Selections: 6-4-3-8

RACE 6 — OFF THE TURF

You’ll probably get paid if top selection #5 Silent Fluidity (8-1) wins. The Cal Lynch-trained daughter of Animal Kingdom makes her second start of ’19, her last having been a decent try sprinting on the lawn. Her breeding says she’ll approve of the added ground, and her career debut, when rallying into eighth on the main track at KEE, was better than it looks; winner Fancy Dress Party won the first four starts of her career, including a Grade 3 score, and is 5-for-6 overall… If #10 Quickpay (6-1) can transfer her turf form to the dirt, she can be tough in here… 

Selections: 5-6-10-11

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 

Last time out in her first try with blinkers, #2 Sweet Home Dixie (3-1) skipped a condition to win pretty easily at this level and now gets to wheel right back against the same quality field. She’s been in the money in five of six on the main track, and the runner-up from her last returned to win next out… We’ll give #6 Two Step Sis (12-1) a chance to bounce back after a poor outing last time behind our top choice… #7 Fiduciary Values (6-1) ran decently last out in an allowance at Charles Town and makes her third start off a three-month break here…

 Selections: 2-6-4-7

RACE 8 — OFF THE TURF

Top choice #10 Umightbeanempress (5-1) has run credibly a couple of times against better and rates a big shot in this lifetime claiming event… The Claudio Gonzalez-trained #4 Passion’s Image (5-2) didn’t run badly in her last main-track try when second in a $25,000 maiden claimer…

Selections: 10-4-14-11

RACE 9

Bombs away to finish things off with #1 West Coast Sky (15-1). The Jerry O’Dwyer trainee had a poor start, made a big run, and then flattened out late last time and has the right to improve today in her second race with Lasix. Sheldon Russell, winner of two stakes yesterday, remains in the irons… #2 Emo (9-5) figures to be a solid favorite in this race, but we’re inclined to try to beat her at short odds; she’s failed twice as the favorite, and the only race she didn’t lose ground in the lane was going four furlongs… 

Selections: 1-8-7-2

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