Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 21, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,127; Super High 5 — $1,974; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable: Trainer Mike Trombetta is 10-for-91 with horses making their second career starts while facing maiden claimers but is 4-for-11 when those runners go off at 2-1 or less.

ANALYSIS

RACE 1

• 5-6-7-2
• Favored #5 Aikenetta (6-5) looks likely to be tough on the drop in class; she was a good third last out on the turf at the $16,000 level and has been facing much better than these. Trainer Jamie Ness wins at a 28% clip on the big drop, and go-to rider Trevor McCarthy remains aboard… #6 Case Dismissed (8-1) has kept her form in recent months after being claimed, enters this one off a win versus lesser, and makes her first start in the Michael Sandoval barn… #7 Music Maker (9-2) hasn’t run on the main track since her debut, but that career bow wasn’t bad and didn’t look materially worse than her subsequent turf tries, which generally contend with these…

RACE 2 

• 8-5-6-7
• Two races after a near-miss versus much better, #8 Irishtown (8-5) finds his way to the bottom in search of a bounceback effort… #5 Brady’s Palace (12-1) makes his first start in Wayne Potts’s Laurel barn. Last time out he was third against similar after tackling the winner midway through the race…

RACE 3

• 7-3-4-8
• Let’s see if we can snap the chalk streak with #7 Shatter Me (9-2). The Anthony Pecoraro trainee makes her third start after a two-month break in this one; last-out winner Still Alive returned to be third in the Smart Halo here, and while she didn’t run well that day, her two-back runner-up effort in the Small Wonder at Delaware was good, as winner Pink Caddy looks to be a runner; the speedster may appreciate getting back on a fast track, too… Favored #3 Halfinthewrapper (2-1) was a decent fourth in the Maryland Million Nursery last out, and while none of seven to run back from that has won, five have finished in the triple…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

• 7-10-4-6
• She’ll need a pace to materialize in front of her, and she’ll need to step forward in this spot, but #7 Words of a Feather (5-1) will have the benefit of not seeing anyone like Corn Off the Cob in today’s contest; that runner, who won this one’s last start, at Monmouth Park, is a six-time winner who’s earned three straight triumphs, while this never-won-two contest presents a much more modest group… The Claudio Gonzalez-trained #10 Smokin Princess (7-2) has better efforts to run back to and here drops to easier company… The most lightly raced runner in the group is #2 Sybil’s Prophecy (10-1), who won at first asking before a poor outing and gets blinks on, while #4 Charming Emmy (20-1) moves up a level in her first start after being claimed by Jonathan Maldonado…

RACE 5 

• 7-1-5-3
• The cutback in distance from a mile to seven furlongs might be just what the doctor ordered for the speedy #7 Going to the Lead (9-2); the Charlie Frock trainee has led for a long way before settling for second in two recent one-mile starts and should be able to enjoy a similar speed/press trip again in this event… #1 Moti (5-2) closed well before emptying out late against better last time at AQU… #3 Mission Oberon (10-1) gives the Parx-based John Bisono his only mount of the day…

RACE 6

• 7-3-8-10
• Favored #7 Cast the Lot (8-5) drops to the bottom for the first time in this spot after a poor outing on the grass, but his better efforts — including his debut on dirt — are good enough to win here… The Mary Eppler-trained #3 Junior Jumper (5-1) makes his first start in almost six months today; last time out, he made a bit of a middle move before tiring late…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

• 2-7-8-5
• Trainer Jerry Robb paid a nickel for #2 Lady Kim (9-5) and then tried her against $10,000 rivals, a race in which she ran an even fourth; dropped back to a nickel today, she figures to be a major player today… #7 Midnight Crossing (7-2) makes her second start after a two-month break and second for trainer Damon Dilovodivico while entering off a win… 

RACE 8 

• 7-9-2-5
• Speaking of Damon Dilodovico, he sends out top choice #7 Bullets Lady (5-1) in this maiden claimer; this runner didn’t run terribly in a plus heat on the turf in her debut; the second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers all returned to win their follow-ups; now she tries the dirt, a surface on which her siblings have won five times… Here’s an interesting stat: trainer Mike Trombetta is 10-for-91 with horses making their second career starts while facing maiden claimers — as is the case with #9 Don’tbaggagecheck (7-2) — but is 4-for-11 with those runners when they go off at 2-1 or less… #2 Abilify (4-1) makes her debut for trainer Arnaud Delacour (8-for-44 with runners debuting in maiden claiming company) and has a couple of bullet works on her tab…

RACE 9

• 2-6-7-3
• Favored #6 Swirrlie Shirlie (7-5) beat similar two back with a big effort before running third last out versus better and will try to sneak away from these, though there is some other speed in here, which may complicate matters… If it does, the most likely beneficiary is #2 Towson (6-1), who was the only runner in her last start to be running late when rallying into third and should appreciate a fast track today… The top pair in her last, #3 Fancy Outflanker (6-1) abd #7 My T Talk (9-5), both were involved in the early running that day but will have to contend with the favorite today…

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