Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 24, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,736; Super High 5 — None; Late Pick 5 — $8,759

Notable: With a Pick 5 carryover, it’s worth a look at that wager, and you’ll want to spread out in the last couple, both of which are pretty contentious affairs.

ANALYSIS

RACE 1

• 7-5-4-2
• All of the horses that have run before in this maiden special weight event have holes in them; even-money favorite #4 Wonder City (1-1), for example, has lost versus similar four times. (Have her on the ticket, though; she ran a big one last time out)… That points us to the first-time starter, #7 Tonal Verse (5-2); the daughter of Tonalist cost $150,000 at auction, and trainer Graham Motion and rider Trevor McCarthy have an 11-for-36 ledger when hooking up on first-timers in maiden special weight company… We also think #5 Kate Carmack (10-1) can take a step forward in her second career start; she’ll get Lasix for the first time today…

RACE 2 

• 1-4-6-3
• Big effort last time by #2 Ain’t Wasting Time (2-1), who prevailed in a three-way speed duel but could not hold off the late close of a rival at Parx in an allowance contest; he has the look of a youngster moving in the right direction and will try to take ’em all the way from his inside post, today with Alex Cintron up… He may have company early though, as one of his speed rivals from that race, #6 Hopeful Treasure (7-5), who finished third as the 4-5 choice, is here; that runner may benefit from the outside draw today, and will have blinkers on, as well… With those two, plus another speed runner or two, a late runner like #4 Confusion Baby Boy (15-1) may have a chance to run into the money; his last was poor, but a bounceback effort could put him in the mix…

RACE 3

• 7-4-1-6
• That last effort was better than it looks for #7 Sir Brahms (3-1); facing better than these, he went almost to his nose at the start, recovered to settle along the inside, eased out entering the lane but was in tight virtually every step of the way until the matter was decided; a cleaner trip could get him the money today… The question for #4 Free to Trump (7-2) is whether rider Victor Roseales can get him to settle a bit more today than in his last, when he ran off to a long early lead while setting sharp fractions but could not hold off a couple of others late; he’ll also have to contend with the stretching-out sprinter #6 Harlan’s Hunch (6-1), who’s shown plenty of early foot as well…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

• 6-1-5-10
• Nothing wrong with that last effort by #6 Hoss Kitten (7-2); the Claudio Gonzalez trainee was hung out wide on the turn but ran on willingly for third in a heat that’s produced two next-out winners from four to run back… The speedy #1 Make It a Double (3-1) debuted — ambitiously — in the Maryland Million Lassie and didn’t run a bad race at all before fading late; in her follow-up, she flashed speed but faded and today drops another step; also of note is that rider Xavier Perez picks this runner over trainer Jerry Robb’s other entrant, #7 Bigdaddysglory (6-1)… Let’s give another crack to #5 Discreet Rush (15-1), who flashed speed before stopping against better and was eased for the last quarter-mile; she’ll get blinkers on today…

RACE 5 

• 3-5-4-6
• The likely favorite in this starter allowance is #5 Lonely Drifter (5-2), who has proven herself to be ultra-competitive in these starters, and she’s one you’ll want on the ticket… #3 Firth (5-1) is an interesting runner; she’s kept mostly better company than these, and while her dirt form isn’t the best, she projects to be the main speed today; she’s making her first start in about three months and first for new trainer Kieron Magee… 

RACE 6

• 4-1-5-6
• You could have thrown a blanket over three of these in their last start: #1 Lady by Choice (7-5), #5 She’s Quiet (7-2), and #6 Conjecture (2-1) all finished within a length of each other when coming in third, second, and fourth, respectively, behind late-running winner Phantom Shot three weeks back. Of the trio, Lady by Choice was perhaps the most impressive, as she was unprepared at the start, rushed up while wide, and stuck with it to the end… But with those three appearing to have pretty equal credentials, let’s see if we can upset the apple cart with #4 Nightlife (8-1). The Ed Coletti trainee hasn’t run since June when up the track in a turf stake at Monmouth; Coletti has had some success bringing runners off long layoffs — 13-for-63 with breaks of 61-180 days — and this one flashed some talent before her vacation; she finished just a length behind Past Perfect, who subsequently was stakes-placed a couple of times, in a main-track allowance, and then defeated subsequent stakes winner Introduced in a turf sprint…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

• 2-5-4-1
• Though there are just five in here after a scratch, it’s a pretty wide-open heat… #2 Flip (7-2) broke his maiden last time out at the $40,000 level, and trainer Cal Lynch grabbed him out of that heat; two of six to run back graduated in their follow-ups, and Lynch will leg up his go-to rider, Trevor McCarthy, today; as the most lightly-raced runner of the group, this one offers the most upside… #5 Vincent Van Gogo (8-1) makes his second start after a three-month break and has shown talent on both turf and dirt; the two-turn trip should be to his liking… #4 Exchequer (7-2) bested Flip two back, though that was just the latter’s second start and the former’s ninth; this one was an even sixth last out at this level in a race from which four of six to run back have finished in the triple…

RACE 8 

• 2-3-7-4
• Favorite #3 Top Hat Treason (2-1) was an even third last out at this level and picks up rider J. D. Acosta, who got off to a rough start here this meet but two wins and a second from his last three Laurel starts… Interesting to see Trevor McCarthy get aboard top choice #2 Spooky Island (5-1) for trainer Mary Eppler, particularly since he also rode one in here for Hugh McMahon last out… #7 Sojourner (3-1) rallied a little bit late in his last against better and drops a level today, as does #4 Walk Away Joe (4-1)…

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