Laurel Park picks and ponderings December 6, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $9,125; Super High 5 — None; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable: First-time starter Table Max (race 8) is a half-brother to Digger, a foal of 2004 who won five stakes in his career and was second in the 2010 edition of the then-Grade 2 General George.

ANALYSIS

RACE 1

• 5-2-6-1
• Even-money favorite #2 Fourteen Carrot (1-1) has the best figs and ought to be on the ticket, but it’s challenging to get excited about short odds on a horse stretching out to a mile for the first time… We’ll try to beat him with one who gave an improved account of himself last out when third against similar going a mile, #5 Awesome At Riedes (7-2); that last was his first with blinkers on, and two of three to run back have finished in the exacta next time, including a winner… Let’s give another crack to #6 Bubba Seventy Six (8-1), who rank OK two back and gets blinks on today…

RACE 2 

• 6-4-1-7
• We’ll see if we can get an upset here with #6 Liquid Hero (8-1), who’s been making short work of his conditions thus far with three wins in six starts; the speedster pretty much lost all chance when bobbling at the start last time and can improve if he gets away from the gate in good order… #4 Here’s a Jetpack (3-1) was fractious before his last race — his first start in four months — and then ran like it, looming a threat before emptying out; he ended up sixth but was actually in a four-horse photo for third and can improve today… Trainer Jose Corrales has an entry in here, with our preference to the consistent #1A He’s Not Curly (5-2), who keeps churning out pretty good races when properly spotted… 

RACE 3

• 1-5-4-6
• We’d like to try to beat #1 Olive’s Bumpa (7-5) in this starter/optional claimer, but it might be a race to eat the chalk; she’s kept pretty good company in her career — her first two starts saw her tangling with arguably the two best local juvenile fillies, and the winner of her last, Punk Rock Princess, returned to be third in allowance company — and should appreciate an easier spot today… #5 Super Donna G (5-1) sat a good trip last race and parlayed that into an easy win; one of two to run back graduated next time out… Claudio Gonzalez sends out our top choice here and also #4 Steady Love (7-2), who finished a near-miss third against lesser last out; the trainer has a 30% strike rate with a positive ROI when jumping a horse up first off the claim…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

• 4-2-1-3
• Top choice #4 Turkmenistan (3-1) ran a good one last out to be second to the suddenly-very-good Vault, who returned to win the Thirty Eight Go Go at Laurel; the show horse that day had won at the two-other-than level multiple times at PEN… #2 So Innocent (8-1) has her moments and has been competitive against similar… Favored #1 Highland Lass (2-1) rises off two consecutive wins versus lesser and makes her first start in the Farrior barn..

RACE 5

• 2-6-3-7
• Another chance for a lucrative upset in this Maryland-bred allowance; #2 Align the Numbers (10-1) makes her second start off a four-month break, and two-back was very competitive when third against a plus group that included 2-for-2 Bull Shark and subsequent stake winner Taco Supream; breaking from the inside, look for him to be on the engine under Rosales today… #6 Popizar (8-5) has certainly run some big figs and has four wins at the trip but figures to have work to do late… 

RACE 6

• 4-1-6-3
• Strange race on tap here: four of the six, all with odds of 6-1 or less, enter off disappointing efforts… We’ll give the nod to #4 Guilty (3-1), who was just OK last out in an allowance at CT (at 1.90-1 odds) but who should appreciate getting back to Laurel and to the kind of company where, three back, he delivered his best effort… Favored #1 Imagine Winning (2-1) is another who performed mysteriously poorly last time, finishing sixth as the 8-5 favorite against better… Given the inconsistency here, it’s probably advisable to have the more consistent #6 Forfiftyfiverocket (6-1) on the ticket; he’s no world-beater but has several efforts that compete at this level…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

• 4-3-6-1
• Looking for an improved effort from #4 Mandette (7-2) in this allowance contest; the sophomore finished behind #3 Janelle Dreams (7-2) last out but, while the latter has made 33 starts without knocking down this condition, the former’s made just six and has shown generally better early speed… PEN jockey Andrew Wolfsont makes the trip down I-83 for just one mount here, that on #6 Big Bad Red (8-1), who graduated in her only prior try over the strip…

RACE 8 

• 7-9-5-8
• We’ll give the nod to #7 Taskinas (7-2) in this maiden claimer; he’s making his third start after a two-month break and dropping off reasonably competitive efforts… The chalk here, #5 Gone Home (3-1), likewise is dropping and has competed against better, and he should appreciate returning to a sprint distance here… #8 Table Max (8-1) is a half-brother to the $500,000 earner Digger (though that runner was a long time ago), and we’ll give a bit of a look to #9 Created Special (15-1), who makes his first start after being claimed by Mike Geralis and was eased last time out…

RACE 9

• 4-10-5-8
• Favorite #4 Cast the Lot (3-5) looks to be tough to beat in here, with a couple of pretty good dirt tries on his resume, and we’ll use him on top… Granted, #10 Play Boy Skoal (20-1) didn’t show a lot in his debut, but we’re not sure how much worse that was than many of his rivals in here, and he tries the dirt for the first time today — the surface on which his half-siblings have posted all of their wins… #5 Perfect Heir (8-1) has a couple of OK dirt efforts and should appreciate returning to a sprint distance in here…

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