Laurel Park picks and ponderings December 14, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $14,598; Super High 5 — $2,142; Late Pick 5 — $4,301

Notable: Trainer Horacio DePaz is 7-for-30 with a $2.54 ROI with juveniles making their debut in maiden special weight company.

RACE 1

1-4-6-2
Tricky little heat to kick off the afternoon on what figures to be a wet track. All six of these have one win, have recorded similar Beyer speed figures, and earned their only victory by leading throughout. That leads to a question: who can pass horses? The only runner to have done that is #1 Once in a Lifetime (9-2), who hit the board four straight to start his career by rallying into the pace; breaking from the one-hole (and with Xavier Perez up), he may be on the engine today, but he has previously rallied even after breaking from the inside, so we’ll give him another crack to do that again today… #4 Distilled Spirit (5-2) makes his first start in the Claudio Gonzalez barn after being claimed – normally a positive – but it’s worth having in mind that Gonzalez has won with just one of his last 16 starters, which for him counts as an epic losing streak… #2 Munsoor (3-1) won easily at first asking and earned a 52 fig – the highest last-out number in the field – but we’re not at all sold on what he beat facing maiden claiming PA-breds…

RACE 2

6-5-1-8
Trainer Graham Motion sent out a first-out winner yesterday at Laurel in maiden special weight company, and today Horacio DePaz will try to do the same thing with top choice #6 Fed Funds (6-1); the son of Lemon Drop Kid is out of a Forest Wildcat mare who won twice as a two-year-old, this one has been working smartly at Pimlico, and DePaz is 7-for-30 with a positive ROI with juveniles making their debut in maiden special weight company… We’ll give another crack here to #5 Tapping the Glass (5-1), who ran poorly last time out; that was his first start in almost three months, though, and his debut was a good one in a race that produced three next-out winners, including winner Golden Candy, who won a Del-certified stake next time out and has been stakes-placed two additional times… Linda Rice sends down #1 Montauk Traffic (3-1) from her NY base to make his debut; she’s 5-for-18 with first-timers here, and this one is by last year’s hot young sire Cross Traffic and out of a G3 winner… Wondering if #8 Paradise Pride (7-2) can take a step forward after being gelded…

RACE 3

2-5-4-1
Curious to see how this race plays out; #2 Nine Martinis (3-1) makes her first start after being claimed by Jamie Ness at Churchill Downs and has some pretty OK efforts in her background; she was up on the pace last time out and ran OK, but has shown the ability to stalk and pounce, which seems more likely to be a winning strategy in a race with other speed signed on… One of those speedy sorts is #5 Call Me Jelly Roll (9-5), who’s run a couple of good ones and makes his first start for Gonzalez; last time out she dueled throughout and prevailed in the speed duel only to get pipped late by a closing sort… #4 Atlantic Avenue (8-1) gets blinkers on and has a couple of decent tries at this level…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

5-1-6-3
The speedy #5 Dr. Ann (5-2) gets our top pick in this first-level allowance; she’s making her first start in the Trombetta barn and has won her last two starts on the dirt, each of which produced three next-out winners… #1 Rockstar Girl (9-2) didn’t show much last time but prior to that had been a good third against similar… Favored #6 Well Hello (2-1) ran evenly against similar last time in a race that’s produced three next-out winners; making her second start off a three-month break, she can move forward today…

RACE 5

5-3-4-10
We’ll gladly take these odds on #5 Awesome D J (6-1), who just won at this level and distance last time out and may get a good trip either leading or stalking the pace… His last speed fig isn’t all that impressive, but #4 Caladan (5-1) did finish third at this level, and of the top seven horses from that heat to run back, all have finished in the money… The wild card in this spot is #10 Rohrbacher (5-2), perhaps named for the Russia-loving Congressman; this one won a two-other-than two back and didn’t run terribly last out in the City of Laurel Stakes; so why’s he in here for the tag rather than, say, trying a three-other-than? If you can find an answer that satisfies you, then he’s your likely winner; if not, he’s one to beat…

RACE 6

6-10-3-9
That was a dead game effort last time out by #6 Allthewrongreasons (7-2), who led, then fell behind the odds-on favorite, and finally re-rallied to win; it was also his first start in 14 months, and here today, he can improve off that in a spot where any improvement at all makes him a winner… #10 Dapper Mun (6-1), who broke his maiden easily rallying at the $10,000 level, lands in the right spot today after five tries against better… #3 Bucked Tooth (5-2) has been making his way rather quickly down the ladder and lands at the bottom today after a couple of OK tries versus better… #9 Baravelli (12-1) ran terribly last out but has competed at this level and is showing a bullet half-mile move since his last start…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

4-3-1-2
Several speedy sorts in this contest might set it up for #4 Lunar Rille (8-1) to come rallying late to get the money; we’ll draw a line through her last over a Parx surface she may not have liked and look three back, where she rallied to the lead at this level before tiring late to second… #3 Esterina (7-2) and #1 Bunting (7-2) both have won the allowance against open company, making them prime candidates to score in this Maryland-bred contest… #2 Artful Splatter (4-1) seems to relish the slop, which could move her up today…

RACE 8

3-5-6-4
We’re thinking that the formful #3 Aveenu Malcainu (5-2) is in the process of becoming a better runner than his rivals in this three-other-than, and his last two outings – a dominant win at the two-other-than level and a good second behind the talented Top Line Growth – suggest that may be the case; five of nine to run back from the former have run one-two next out… With a wet track in the offing, don’t sleep on #5 Eastern Bay (6-1), who’s never won on a fast main track but has five wins in seven starts on off tracks… Early zip here should come from #6 Showalter (3-1) and #1 Old Time Revival (5-1), with the former more likely to be around at the end…

RACE 9

3-6-4-10
Top choice #3 Shadow Boxer (6-1) is moving in the right direction and looks to be the main speed in this crowded field; we’re thinking three straight wins is in the cards… #6 Baytown Glory (5-2) makes his first start for trainer Kieron Magee and first start in some two months and first with Lasix; of the top four to run back from his last, three won next time out… Speaking of productive races, all four to run back from that last one for #4 Determined Vision (9-2), who ran second that day, have finished in the triple next out…