Laurel Park picks and ponderings December 21, 2019

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — None; Super High 5 — $2,253; Late Pick 5 — None

Notable: Trainer Graham Motion (Security Breach, race 9) wins 22% of the time with horses making their second career starts in maiden special weight company at Laurel.

ANALYSIS

RACE 1

• 1-5-3-6
• Morning line favorite #1 Lawn Boy (4-5) ought to be a handful on the three-level drop to the bottom here in a race that seems to be his for the taking; three of four to run back from his last – when he didn’t run badly to be fourth – won their follow-ups… First start in 20ish months for #5 Me Darlin Chessie (7-2), who has a couple of not-too-bad tries in his background; also marks the first local start in nearly three months for jockey Katie Davis, who’s made one start since the end of September, a second-place finish yesterday at the Big A…

RACE 2 

• 7-8-5-3
• Top choice #7 Shak’s Hidden Gem (3-1) lands in the right spot two starts after a good try versus better and makes third outing in Potts barn… #8 Gallanor (5-2) was a decent second last time out but none of three to run back has finished in the money…

RACE 3 

• 6-8-7-4
• Good try last time out by #6 Talented Dr. B (7-2), who won the speed duel but could not contain the late run of Mike the Tiger while remaining well clear of the rest… Look for an improved effort from #8 Spiritus (15-1), who ran on willingly in the lane while under a hand ride; the added ground won’t hurt, either… Favored #7 Coffee Please (2-1) certainly fits here but has failed two straight at this level as the chalk, including last time at 3-5…

ANALYSIS

RACE 4

• 5-3-7-6
• Contessa shippers don’t have a ton of success at Laurel (11% strike rate in the last five years) and usually are overbet ($0.78 ROI), but we’re thinking #5 Invest (6-1) has a chance to score and offer some value; the NY-bred son of Super Saver cost a ton of money at auction – $240k – and now can be yours for the low price of $16,000; his last two aren’t great, but he has better efforts to run back to and makes his third start off a four-month break today; he gets blinkers on and will be relieved not to see any runners like last-out winner El Hermano, who won again in his follow-up while recording a 97 Beyer fig… #3 Junior Senator (5-1) graduated last time out and lands in the right spot for his follow-up one claiming level down; runner-up Galerio came back to be runner-up against better yesterday…

RACE 5

• 3-1-6-8
• Last time out #3 Last Chukker (5-1) ran a pretty OK race at this $10,000 level; the added furlong he’ll get here works to his advantage, and note that trainer Sanchez-Salomon will leg up Pimentel today; those two are 6-for-12 together in the last couple years… #1 Nick Papagiorgio (3-1) chased a loose leader last time to no avail and fits here… #6 Charging Lion (15-1) and #8 Sapphire Shilling (5-2) both have won more than the two prior wins permitted horses in this race (they slip in as 3-year-olds), and the former should appreciate the class relief he’ll get today after butting heads against much better…

RACE 6 

• 6-9-8-10
• Her last was poor, but it was also on the lawn, so we’ll forgive #6 Khalos Vision (7-2) for that one; like to see new trainer Capuano keep her at this level even though she’s out of jail, and he 6-for-23 with maidens first time off the claim… The O’Dwyer-trained favorite #9 Rockin Anna Rollin (5-2) is likely to have something to say about the outcome today and showed much-improved early zip last time in her second career start… Inclined to give #10 Always a Queen (10-1) one more crack; her debut wasn’t bad at all, but in her next two she was pulled up and eased; in a new barn with six weeks between races, maybe she can get back to her debut form…

ANALYSIS

RACE 7

• 7-8-6-4
• Here’s a stat: trainer Anthony Farrior wins 26% of the time with horses making their second starts after he claimed them, and he’s 3-for-6 when he stretches those horses out from sprints to routes, all of which augurs well for #7 Earned It (4-1), who rallied a little bit into third last time out at a similar level… The Lacey Gaudet-trained #8 Whole Lotta Luck (9-2) beat similar two back, when Gaudet claimed him, gets blinks on, and finds a softer spot here than in his last… Gonna give one more crack to #6 Super Buddy (15-1), who improved a bit last time sprinting, makes his third start off a break, and has some prior tries good enough to win here…

RACE 8 

• 8-2-7-4
• The talented #8 My Star Potential (5-2) romped in a-other-than company last out and catches a manageable group for her first foray into second-level allowance company and first try beyond six furlongs (this one is seven); it’s the latter fact that worries us just a touch, but she looks likely to be speed of the speed here and finished up nicely last time… #2 Caramel Cream (4-1) won nicely last time out at Parx and can move forward in her third start after a six-month layoff… #7 Turkmenistan (8-1) arrives in pretty good form with second- and third-place finishes at this level in her last two, and note that two-back winner Vault came back to win the Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes at Laurel…

RACE 9

• 2-6-4-3
• Decent debut for #2 Security Breach (2-1), who ran fourth, beaten a couple by impressive debut winner Mine Not Mine, who subsequently ran a rallying fourth in the Maryland Juvenile Futurity and then was sold for $210,000 at auction; expected second-race improvemen should suffice here… Trying to spice things up a bit with second-timer #6 Dreams of Yvonne (12-1), who was involved early in his debut at Churchill before fading from the scene…

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