Charles Town picks and analysis: June 13

Photo by Allison Janezic.

RACE 1

4-2-3-5

Good effort last time by the chalk in here, #4 Meltech (6-5)… We wouldn’t criticize you if you wanted to take a stand against him, though, and one to watch is #2 Mayhem Like Me (3-1); he ran poorly last time — well behind Meltech — but is lightly raced and has some talent… Four out of five from the last race for #3 Dubai Was Lit (10-1) — she finished third — finished in the triple next time out…

RACE 2

3-1-7-8

This maiden event looks like it comes to to one of the two second-time starters, and we’ll give the nod to the chalk, #3 Lucky Penguin (7-5), who made a middle move — really, was forced to make a middle move — to the lead on debut before settling for second, almost a length ahead of the Ronney Brown-trained #7 Shameless Risk (5-2); Lucky Penguin’s trainer, Jeff Runco, wins 36% of the time with second starters who finished in the money on debut…

RACE 3

4-3-1-6

There looks to be a bit of speed in this state-bred allowance, and perhaps that’ll be good news for #4 Affix (3-1), who ran a good one last out to be beaten a length-and-change against similar; he makes his second start off a two-month break and second for trainer Tim Collins… The favorite, #3 Golden Appeal (6-5), jumped up to win a lifetime claiming event last time at 7-1, but we’re inclined to try to beat him on the class jump…

3-5-1-2

The class-dropping #3 Ravin’ Maven (3-1) debuted in special weight company for trainer Runco, keeps go-to rider Bocachica… If #5 Crysptosande (8-5) runs back to his last, he’ll win here – but will he? The odds figure to be short…

RACE 5

1-7-6-5

The chalk here, #7 Witchy Windsor (6-5), is winless in six tries at this level and just ran second versus similar, and that’s enough to look elsewhere… We’ll take a shot with #1 Uncanny (9-2); the Stacey Viands trainee didn’t show much in her first eight tries but then jumped up to win easily in bottom maiden company last out; maybe the light bulb is on?

RACE 6

3-4-1-6

Ugh – more chalk! #3 Bobby Axelrod (7-5) has plenty of strikes against him in this maiden event – 11 tries without a win, including the last couple in claiming company; but his figs tower over his rivals here, and, in his first try for new trainer Jeff Runco, all he needs to do is run back to just about any of his recent races to become a graduate…

RACE 7

4-3-8-2

Favored #3 Fanniebellefleming (9-5) may prove best but looks like one to try to beat here; the five-year-old hasn’t raced since March, which may make this two-turn trip a bit tricky, and makes her first start in the barn of Jody Caison, who claimed her from one of Maryland’s leading trainers, Dale Capuano… Let’s hope a solid pace materializes – and it could – because that might elevate the chances of our top choice #4 Lady’s Cork (10-1), who rallied smartly into second last time at long odds, makes her second start off a break, and is pretty formful now…

RACE 8

7-11-1-8

Top choice #7 Love That Jazz (7-2) never caught a break last time, slugging it out first with early leader Camgo and later with winner Hobe Sound; he’ll be fitter today and perhaps catch an easier trip… #11 Camgo (6-1) draws in with scratches and will need to commit early from the outside… #1 Moti (3-1) enters off a win and makes his first start in Joan Reynolds’ barn…

RACE 9

8-11-4-3

#8 Party Rock (2-1) ran OK las time when fourth behind Tel Aviv, who simply ran ‘em all off their feet; this one makes the cutoff date in this beaten claimer by exactly two days… With a scratch, #11 Bird Traffic (7-5) draws in while making a long drop from allowance company to the bottom level; we’re taking a bit of a wait-and-see on the Kieron Magee trainee…

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