Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 11, 2020

by John Piassek | Sep 11, 2020 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $10,012 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

Notable: Until further notice, no fans are allowed to attend the races at Laurel Park. For more info, click here.

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

4-5-6-2
#4 Mouse Cat (7/5): Ran a big race in her first start around two turns, setting the pace and holding on in the stretch before losing by a head. On the brisnet scale, she’s a “triple fig”, meaning that the worst of her last three figures is better than anyone else’s best in that span.
#5 Why Not You (2/1): She’s run on well in her last two races, coming from way out of it to hit the board. I don’t think she can beat Mouse Cat, but a cold exacta combining the two would be a sound play.
#6 Royalglitz (7/2): Set the pace early on in her last race, and was looking like a strong win contender before blowing the turn. She’s going to be on the pace once again, and will hopefully avoid any antics.

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

9-10-11-6
#9 Wind Ridge: Goes out for Kelly Rubley for the first time, after an impressive maiden-breaking win at Gulfstream Park in May. He’s taken big steps forward in all three of his races, and has been working well at Fair Hill.
#10 Holy Saint: Chased a loose leader in his last race. In the stretch, he re-rallied after falling behind, and lost by just two lengths. Went gate-to-wire in the race before that, his first off a long break. He’s got the pace figures to wrestle the lead away from his rivals, from there, he can dictate his own terms.
#11 Toe Curlin’ Kiss: Comes in with an unsightly 1-for-20 career record. Most of that can be attributed to the fact that he has no early speed whatsoever. However, he might’ve been the best horse in the race last time. He was defeated by a neck after encountering some traffic trouble. Vulnerable to get more of that here, but should be respected for underneath spots in the exotics.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

7-6-3-1
#7 Elusive Motion (5/2): Led most of the way around two races ago, before hitting the wall late and finishing third. Once again, he looks like the dominant speed. He’s got some distance questions, but he’ll get a great setup, if nothing else.
#6 Feature Act (3/1): A runner-up in his last three starts, he’s beginning to have some “sucker horse” tendencies to him. He went off at 3/1 or less in all three of those races to boot. He’ll be well behind early and try to make a strong rally from downtown. In fact, in his last race, he managed to overtake Elusive Motion to beat him by half a length. Worth using underneath.
#3 Overdriven (9/2): Comes out of the same race as Feature Act and Elusive Motion, and has a very similar running style as the former. He’s improved steadily in his last three races, and should be able to get the same ground-saving trip he had last time.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

9-6-7-13
#9 Mucha Mezquina: Showed speed several times over the winter at Oaklawn Park, but was pressed on fast paces and backed up every time. When allowed to set an uncontested lead last November at Churchill Downs, she cruised to victory. If she wrangles an easy lead here, and she looks fast enough to do so, she’ll be gone.
#6 Quiet Company: The horse who could give Mucha Mezquina some trouble on the lead. She won two in a row while on the front end on grass recently, after showing speed and fading on dirt. It remains a question if she can extend her speed this far on dirt.
#7 Vigilante Way: Broke her maiden impressively at Tampa Bay Downs second time out, then hit the gate against stakes company in her last dirt race. Works coming in here have been very strong, for her first try at this condition.

RACE 5 – STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

1-7-5-4
#1 Glory Song (9/2): Ness and Marquez teamed up for a winner yesterday; they’re back at it here. He showed a lot of guts when winning on the front end last out at Delaware. He’ll need to show some heart again here, as there’s a lot of speed signed on. Still, he’s got the advantageous inside post and improving form.
#7 Bad Little Beast (6/1): He’ll get ignored a bit in the wagering because of his dismal last race. However, in the start before that, he rated off the pace, swooped by, and won going away. Brittany Russell is 24% with horses off a layoff, and her and Jevian Toledo are 4-for-10 when they team up.
#5 Empire Line (2/1): New York invader showed speed and faded in the last eighth in his last race. On one hand, he’s got great recent figures, he’s dropping in class, and Trevor gets aboard. On the other hand, that feels like a race that he should’ve won, considering he was the 1/1 favorite and he got a good setup. He has to be used in multi-race bets, but I’d be a bit wary of a win bet.

RACE 6: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

13-5-7-4
#13 Air on Fire: Handily won a n/w1x allowance last out, and could’ve won it a lot more impressively if not for drifting out. This might be a slight jump in class, but he looks fast enough that it shouldn’t be a problem.
#5 Armament: He’s yet to show his best since going to the Claudio Gonzalez barn, running evenly twice at Parx. That can sometimes be a funky track, though, and not every horse likes racing on that surface. Earlier in the year, he was impressive against open claiming company at Aqueduct. Can he recover that form here?
#7 Hill Shadow: Finished a solid second against slightly better last out. Won against tougher starter optional claiming foes four back. Will do his best running late.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

1-12-9-2
#1 Buckey’s Charm (3/1): Got action on debut, in a maiden special weight. She stalked the pace and battled well, losing by just 1 1/4 lengths. Among those who have raced, she’s the best last-out figure by ten points.
#12 Juror Number Four (10/1): Brittany and Toledo team up with another one here. She was a solid third on debut at Delaware, missing second by just half a length. Now drops for a tag for the first time.
#9 Champagne Toast (6/1): Another tough trainer/jockey team sends one out here: Kelly Rubley and Julian Pimentel. This filly has been working strongly at Fair Hill, and should take a good amount of action.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

4-12-13-7
#4 Karan’s Notion: Drew off to break his maiden three back, stopped after setting the pace two back, showed lots of heart to win last out. He looks like a steadily improving 3-year-old, and I’m excited to see how he does while taking another crack against open company. This race may serve as a prep for a try in a Maryland Million race.
#12 Dirtyfoot: He smoked a conditioned claiming field last out, going gate-to-wire with a lifetime top figure of 94. You have to figure Luis Garcia will be sending once again.
#13 Xmasinthecity: Fell flat last out, in his first start in more than nine months. Last fall, he showed speed and held well on both dirt and grass. Trusting in Trombetta to have him ready second off the bench.
RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
1-4-3-2
#1 Sevilla Sangria: The thought of “this is finally a field she can beat” can be a trap, but it applies here. She chased the leaders in her last two and ended up second, with sharp figures both times. There’s not much speed in here, so if Kevin Gomez wants, he could put her on the lead and try to wire them.
#4 Patriotic Punch: Goes first off the claim for Anthony Farrior, who is 22% with such horses. Finished a clear-cut second behind Breviary last out, who came back to win next out. Should be on or near the pace.
#3 Sea Story: Finished a strong-closing fourth in her last dirt race, which was at Aqueduct last fall. Her two races this year, both on grass, have been decent, if visually unimpressive. Moving back to dirt could wake her up.