Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 17, 2020

by John Piassek | Sep 17, 2020 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $16,669 Super High 5 — $5,878 Late Pick 5 — $0

Notable: Until further notice, no fans are allowed to attend the races at Laurel Park. For more info, click here.

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS (GRASS)

4-7-3-2
#4 Defy Expectations (5/2): Tries winners for the first time, after drawing off to an impressive maiden-breaking score last out. She got a fast pace to run at in that spot, and there’s two speed horses to her outside here. She can take back, let them duel, and roll by them on the turn.
#7 Midship Lady (8/5): Cuts back in distance and drops in class after a visually unimpressive race last out. She was the best horse in the race three starts back, losing a n/w1x allowance by 1 1/2 lengths after dealing with serious traffic trouble. Has good closing speed, in a race that, as noted, will have a fast pace.
#3 Melisande (15/1): Deep closer might need more ground than this, but she closed impressively to break her maiden on grass three races back, and was wide all the way last out. Could stumble into a spot underneath at a price.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

3-1-7-5
#3 Silver Sides (4/1): Ran on well late last out, taking the lead briefly in the stretch before getting caught. That was her first race at this level, after drawing off against n/w2L company two back. Races third off the layoff here, and is one of the few here who can put together a good late move.
#1 Calypso Ghost (7/2): Cuts back in distance and drops in class, both of which are probably good moves after her last race. In that start, she showed speed going a mile, then backed up. Here, she should rate off the pace on the inside and make a dangerous move.
#7 La Shirimp (3/1): Just barely held on to break her maiden two races back, opening up a long, lonely lead going a mile. There’s lots of cheap speed signed on here, but if she can hustle to the lead and open up a clear early advantage, she’ll be tough to catch.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

2-3-4-8
#2 Pilot Episode (5/2): Shug McGaughey and Forest Boyce have seen a lot of their horses get washed away at the meet, but when they do team up, they’re a dangerous pair. They’re 4-for-7 when together in the past sixty days. This filly held on to lose by less than four lengths in her lone grass race, trying to close on the speed-favoring Belmont Park grass. With the exception of the Woodbine Oaks, she’s been forwardly placed in all her starts. That trend should continue here.
#3 Golden Ibis (12/1): Her expected American grass debut got washed away at Delaware Park, She still ran, probably just to get a race into her, and lost by 22 lengths. Goes for top grass trainer Arnaud Delacour, and looks bred to run all day on this surface. If anything, a mile might be too short for her.
#4 Boom Boom Girl (6/1): Similar to Golden Ibis, she’s coming in here off a screw-tightening race on dirt. As a 2-year-old, she closed well in both her grass starts, including a third-place finish at Aqueduct in November. Goes second off a long layoff, and picks up Trevor McCarthy for the first time.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

4-6-2-3
#4 Miami Mumbles (3/1): Comes off a dominating maiden win at Delaware, where he won by 5 1/4 lengths and earned a brisnet figure of 95. Brittany Russell and Jevian Toledo are 4-for-12 when teaming up at the meet.
#6 Galerio (7/5): The fiercest opposition to Miami Mumbles, and one of the hardest-knocking horses on the grounds. He won two in a row in impressive fashion earlier in the year, then led late and battled to just miss last out. He has speed from the outside post, but so does Miami Mumbles from his inside. You can expect Angel Cruz to go after him early and try to grab command.
#2 Crouchelli (8/1): Doesn’t have the early speed needed to contend in this race, but he’s closed well off slow paces and gotten pieces. With the two aforementioned horses, the pace should be at least somewhat honest here, making it easier for him to get close.

RACE 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

14-1-10-11
#14 Souper Energizer (5/2): Drops for a career-low tag after holding his own against straight maidens at Monmouth Park and Saratoga. Ran a career-best figure going two turns over the winter at Gulfstream Park, setting the pace and battling on well.
#1 Strolled On By (6/1): He’s run figures in the 70s in each of his two starts so far, most recently earning a 75 after a wide trip last out. Workouts coming in here have been strong; he could be ready to fire a giant bullet.
#10 Ripken (6/1): Showed brief speed in his debut, on dirt, before fading. Gets lasix here, and should improve going onto the grass.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

3-7-6-5
#3 Thatwouldbegrand (3/1): Prompted the pace and drew off to win his last race handily. After a slow start to the year, it looks like he’s begun to regain his form from last year, which saw him steadily run figures in the 80s. That type of form would win this race.
#7 Willmakeyouhappy (5/2): He’s yet to find his best form from over the winter, but he’s slowly rebounded since the break. Last out, he was a clear-cut second after rating off the pace, but continued to trend in the right direction figure-wise. Trevor McCarthy gets the mount for the first time.
#6 In the Loop (7/2): The reason Trevor got the mount on Willmakeyouhappy is because Xavier Perez, his usual rider, jumped off to ride this John Robb charge. After a poor try at Delaware two back, he ran a big figure of 86 last out when finishing second against tougher. Should prompt the pace on the outside.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-3-5-2
#8 Caterina One (6/1): Takes a much-needed drop in class after showing brief foot against allowance company last out. Ran huge two back, against conditioned claimers. She looked beat in the stretch, but rerallied in the stretch and got up to win. Facing her own kind here should inspire another big effort.
#3 Market Money (8/1): Another one dropping from allowance company, she ran in the 80s twice earlier in the meet, figures that would be good enough to win this race. In her last grass start, she got shuffled back and struggled. Will look for a cleaner setup here.
#5 Princess Killmain (6/1): Closed from the clouds for an impressive win at this level two races back. Rallied similarly well against tougher last out.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)

14-2-4-10
#14 Flowmotion (9/5): Closed well in his last race to get third, against tougher allowance horses at Monmouth. He’s run an 88 in each of his last three races; only two of his rivals have done that even once in the same span. Trevor getting aboard doesn’t hurt the cause.
#2 Tom Hagen (4/1): Won a Maryland-bred allowance on this surface last summer, and closed well to hit the board at the open level twice more. Both his races this year were washed off, but he showed early speed before fading. That’s critical, as there’s no other good early speed in here. He should get the dream setup on the front end.
#4 Mr. D’Angelo (2/1): The winner of the Maryland Million Turf last year, he’s got a great closing kick, but often leaves himself with too much to do. Last out, he came from ten lengths out of it, endured traffic trouble, and lost by just 3/4 of a length.
RACE 9: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED, 6 FURLONGS
2-3-6-4
#2 Coconut Cake (9/5): Battled gamely last out to win an open n/w1x allowance race, now gets to drops to state-bred company. She’s very lightly-raced, making just her fourth career start, and has every right to improve off the 87 she earned last out. Might be using this race as a prep for the Maryland Million.
#3 Quiet Imagination (3/1): She’s hit the board in five of seven lifetime, generally making a strong middle move and boxing on late. Finished a solid second last out after a wide trip.
#6 Margie’s Heaven (4/1): Another lightly-raced sort, she finished third last out, with a dramatically improved figure of 85. She chased a loose leader all the way around in that race, but raced willingly and lost a photo for place.
RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
6-2-3-11
#6 Sister Seville (15/1): Had a bumpy trip on debut, but ran on well to earn a figure of 60. After a dull effort last out, she’s been given lasix for the first time here. Trainer James Lawrence is 35% with first-time lasix.
#2 Celebre (4/1): Got third in a funky race last out, her first for a tag and her second start off the layoff. Should enjoy the slightly longer distance and the jockey upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.
#3 Dancing Til Dusk (3/1): Finished second in her debut for a tag last out, after stalking the pace and getting overwhelmed late. It’s just her fourth career start, and she ran a career-top last time, so she could take a step forward here.