Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 15, 2020

Anna’s Bandit. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $3,161 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 7-1-3-2
• #7 Created Special (2/1): The only one in the field to have never lost against winners, he’s coming off a sharp, perfect trip win in his last race. He’s the only speed horse in the field, ad should be able to take them gate-to-wire without much hassle.
• #1 Gottaway (9/2): Matched his lifetime top figure in his first race against winners, when he got stuck in a brutal pace scenario. He fell far behind off dawdling fractions, and had no chance to catch the leader. The way this race looks on paper, he might get stuck in a similar spot, but he should at least rally for a piece of the exotics.
• #3 Runner Runner Indy (4/1): Another closer at the mercy of the early tempo, he chased that same same slow pace last out, but ran on well and edged out Gottaway for second. Outside of an unexplainably bad effort at Delaware two back, he’s run solid figures in his last few, and is making just his third start against winners.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 5-1-7-8
• #5 Prince Khozan (3/1): Delaware Park shipper enters this race with three consecutive brisnet figures in the 80s. Got outkicked at this condition last out, now faces an easier field and stretches out to a mile, a distance he enjoyed over the summer. 
• #1 Lectric Choke (5/2): Shipped to Delaware in his last race, and closed sharply in the stretch to miss by a neck. Tends to make big rallies and flatten out; his only recent win came against much weaker company. Looks like a better candidate for underneath.
• #7 Its Yes (3/1): Recent midwest shipper checked on the turn in the midst of his rally last out, but still ran on well with a sharp figure. He’s got strong late pace figures, and should take advantage of the long Laurel stretch in his first try over this surface.

RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 13-6-11-10
• #13 Midnight Act: Ran a gutsy race at Delaware last out, surging late to miss against the uber-classy VIP Code. He’s run a brisnet figure of at least 86 i four of his last six starts, which is a number most of these have trouble hitting once. Should get a good trip stalking the pace, and kick on in the stretch.
• #6 Smart Step: Another one who likes to battle, he just missed in each of his last two starts after looming in the stretch. He’s been steadily improving since returning off a long layoff, nearly hitting his career-top in his last several races.
• #11 Bobby G: He’s been bouncing back in his last few after a string of dull races over the summer. Got a great stalking trip last out against better, and used it to full advantage, pulling away strongly in the stretch. Finished a clear-cut second two races back, losing only to hard-knocking Final Prospect.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

• 5-6-3-7
• #5 Ray’swarrior (2/1): A winner of three in a row, he’s shown both pace-setting and tactical speed. In his last two, he’s managed to sit just off the pace and pounce to victory. There’s a lot of speed in here, so look for a similar outcome here. 
• #6 Factor This In (5/1): Sat off a very fast pace at Parx last out, and battled on for the win against a tough starter allowance field. He’s run figures as high as 97 earlier in the year, now keeps to keep moving forward fourth off the layoff. Just like Ray’swarrior, he should get an idyllic trip stalking the leaders. Jamie Ness and Trevor McCarthy help the cause.
• #3 Girls Love Me (15/1): Usually a stalker, he showed a new dimension in his last race. He battled for the lead and drew off to a strong win, running a career-top figure. It’s a big jump in class, but he’s lightly raced, on the improve, and has the ability to show speed or rate. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him get a piece at big odds.

RACE 5 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 7 FURLONGS

• 9-11-5-1
• #9 Out of Sorts (4/1): Got action in a tough maiden field on debut, and recovered nicely after a slow break to finish a strong fourth. Goes second out for Brittany Russell, who is always dangerous when Sheldon picks up the mount, as he does here. 
• #11 Carbis Bay (6/1): Godolphin-owned filly has been working strongly at Monmouth Park. With that meet wrapping up, she’ll ship down here for her debut. She looks bred to go longer, and the post isn’t ideal, but she has the looks of a horse who could mean business first out. The board will tell the story.
• #5 Be Sneaky (6/1): Delacour firster has been working holes in the wind at Fair Hill, with four bullets in her last six appearances on the worktab. Might be better second out, but should still run a big one first time around.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 2-5-7-3
• #2 Plot the Dots (3/1): His poor grass form somewhat obscures what’s been a very solid career on dirt. He won twice over this track earlier in the year, the finished a solid second at Saratoga in his last dirt race. In that race, he was pace-compromised, yet still showed some punch in the stretch. Getting back to the dirt should wake him up.
• #5 Oxide (5/1): Closed to win going away at Churchill Downs in his last race, which isn’t always an easy thing to do. Goes first off the claim for Lacey Gaudet, who hits at 29% with such horses. 
• #7 Miami Mumbles (7/2): Couldn’t quite match his giant maiden win in his first start against winners, but battled well in the stretch and lost to the very tough Galerio. Both his races going long have been excellent, no reason he can’t run another big one. Look for him to stalk and pounce.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 1-3-13-9
• #1 Fifteen Royals: Seeks a rebound after a disastrous effort against stakes company at Delaware. In the two races prior, she showed blazing speed against similar while going shorter, and ran her two best figures. Looks dangerous on the lead from the inside post. Victory Carrasco, who couldn’t ride her in that last race, gets back aboard. The last time he was aboard, he put her on the lead, and she won going away.
• #3 Queen of Tomorrow: Gets a much-needed cutback in distance, after seeing a regression in her figures going long. The last time show went sprinting, she broke her maiden by ten lengths, with a career-top of 89. Claudio Gonzalez and Angel Cruz are always a tough trainer/jockey combo, winning at 29% in recent times.
• #13 Spun Glass: Stalked the pace and drew off to break her maiden last out at Presque Isle Downs. Tries winners for the first time, in just her fourth start. Mike Trombetta and Julien Pimentel are 26% when teaming up. 

RACE 8: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDTIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

• 9-3-6-1
• #9 Time Flies By (6/1): Drew away impressively to beat similar i his last race. The wide trip didn’t hamper him last time, and shouldn’t bother him here, either.
• #3 Tricky Lion (7/2): A tricky sort, indeed. He’s gotten the trip in his last few races, and ran some big figures, but hasn’t been able to close the deal. Didn’t run up to his usual figures in his last race, but he had an excuse: he was stuck behind a loose leader off a slow pace, and made up ground best he could. Will it all come together here?
• #6 Daystrike (7/2): A lot of things look to be coming together for him. He cuts back in distance, drops in class, and has dangerous early speed. He had a tough time the last time he was at this level, but it was his first start several months. Horses like this, whose form has been obscured by bad circumstances, can sometimes sneak through the cracks in the wagering.

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