Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 16, 2020

Dirty. Photo by Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $4,124 Super High 5 –$0 Late Pick 5 — $0

RACE 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

6-1-8-9
#6 Pilot Episode: Showed speed and faded going shorter on dirt several times to begin her career. Faces a weak field in this off-the-grass contest, and could be able to wire them. Gets blinkers on, and comes in off a bullet work.
#1 Cloud Ten: Runs for the first time since her debut, last December at Fair Grounds. She closed well in that race, finishing fourth while taking advantage of the long stretch there. She’s got another long stretch to close into here, and has been working well while preparing for her return.
#8 Slime Queen: Her form on dirt has been up-and-down. Sometimes, she’ll make a strong rally and finish well, other times, she’ll be a complete non-factor. It’s not a strong field here, so she may not need her best effort. Her race three back, where she battled in the stretch and lost by a head, probably wins this.

RACE 2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS

4-1-5-7
#4 Lugamo (7/2): It’s basically a coin flip between him and Speightster Red, drawn a few spots to his inside. They’re coming off their debut race, where they both got crushed by Jaxon Traveler. Lugamo edged his rival by a head, after getting a good trip rating off the pace. He beat some promising horses in that race, too, but Jaxon Traveler was just much to good for them. I’ll give this one the edge, as I think he’ll be a slightly higher price, and therefore the better value.
#1 Speightster Red (5/2): He got more wagering action in that race than Lugamo, and has a workout since that race. Encountered some traffic trouble in that race, but rerallied and battled well.
#5 Scottsdale (9/2): Recent $120,000 purchase has been working strongly, with two recent bullet drills over this track. Notably, one of them was over a sloppy track, a condition he’ll likely encounter here.

RACE 3: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-3-5-7
#4 Russeldoingthings (6/1): Broke his maiden impressively in June, then dueled on a fast pace going a mile and backed up badly. Makes his first start since that July 17 effort, and cuts back to his preferred six-furlong distance.
#3 Holly Blame (2/1): A 5-year-old facing six sophomores, he’s the only one in the race to run a brisnet figure of at least 85 in each of his last three dirt races. Goes first off the claim for Jose Corrales, who claimed him out of a race at Churchill Downs where he managed to gain ground in the stretch against open claimers.
#5 Carey Times (3/1): It’s true that he got a dream trip in his last race, but he also took full advantage. He drew off handily from a field of Maryland-breds, with a career-best figure of 93. Looks to finally break through at this level, after a string of near-misses over the winter.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

6-1-2-13
#6 Peachy Keen: Tries a tag for the first time, after two unsuccessful efforts against straight maidens. While neither race was visually impressive, he earned big figures in both spots, including an impressive 83 last out. Looks to be very tough as long as he keeps his form at all.
#1 Summer Somewhere: Ran a gutsy race in his last try at the level, opening up late and losing in the shadow of the wire. That race came last November, but he’s been working strongly for his return.
#2 Lasting Image: Another one running at a career-low level, he was overmatched against $40,000 horses earlier in the meet, but still ran figures in the mid-70s, very contentious for this level. Although Julian Pimentel frequently rides for Kelly Rubley, he hasn’t teamed up for a winner with her in a while. This one has a good chance to change that.

RACE 5 – CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

2-4-5-7
#1 Thedevilmademedoit (7/2): Comes off a n/w2L win at Delaware Park, where she blew the doors off the field after setting an uncontested pace. After sprinting for most of her career, it looks as if going long has finally woken her up. Should be tough to catch on the pace.
#4 Ragtime Suzy (7/2): Raced wide most of the way in her last race, but held on well and secured second. Won a n/w2L race two back, with a similar trip that Thedevilmademedoit got in that one’s big win. Looks to stalk the pace and get the jump on the rest.
#5 Simmard Shenanigan (8/1): Closed from last to finish third last out, over a track that had been playing towards speed. She’s hit the board in 13 of 21 that Laurel; the long stretch does her long, lumbering style favors.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

9-8-2-1
#9 Sailingintothewind: Her lone career win came in an impressive effort on dirt, going gate-to-wire to win in easy style. She hasn’t been able to last on the lead on grass, but now gets back to dirt and should find the pace scenario advantageous.
#8 One Last Trial: Wasn’t visually impressive in her most recent dirt race, but it was her first start in a while, and she raced wide throughout. Her figure of 76 in that race makes her a contender here. This’ll be her first race since August 21, but he recent workouts have been strong.
#2 Steady Love: Closed well against Maryland-bred allowance horses to lose by a length last out. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles; her career-top figure came at a one-turn mile.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

5-4-6-7
#5 Severn the Rocks (9/2): Jumped to the n/w1x level last out, and faded after racing wide. Returns to his favorite track and level; he crossed the wire first twice under similar circumstances during the summer meet. Could sneak through the cracks at a bettable price.
#4 Noble Way (9/5): He was very impressive in his last start, stalking the pace and driving away from the field to post a giant figure of 97. That big race came in January, and he hasn’t been seen since. He could absolutely run a big one first off the bench, but in this race, I don’t know if I’d want to take such a low price on him.
#6 Forfortyfiverocket (8/1): The only bad race he’s run in his last few came when he checked not long after the start and lost tactical position. Last out, he battled gamely throughout after setting a fast tempo. He’ll be tough on the lead.

RACE 8: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

7-3-2-8
#7 Po Dunk (3/1): Gets lasix for the first time, in her first start for Claudio Gonzalez. Her debut, which came on grass at Arlington Park was a clunker; hopes to wake up on dirt.
#3 Not My Money (6/1): Almost wired the field going 1 1/16 miles last out, but flattened out in the last eighth. Taking 0-for-20 horses is always risky, but the pace scenario could work out for her here.
#2 Spanish Red (15/1): Got action in her debut for $25,000, then faded after racing wide. Drops in class and stretches out for Hamilton Smith, who is a respectable 15% with horses going long for the first time.