Pimlico picks and ponderings May 6, 2021

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $10,671 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-6-2-1
We’ll begin the week with a field of six going short. The track was sloppy for morning workouts yesterday; it remains to be seen what the track condition will be come post time. #4 Warm Sunny Breeze (5/2) takes a big drop in class after showing speed and fading against better last out, including the classy Belle Tapisserie. Xavier Perez gets the mount for his man Jerry Robb. Shouldn’t have much trouble getting the lead here. #6 Fugitive (1/1) will chase Warm Sunny Breeze around and hope that rival backs up. He has dominant brisnet figures, but he looked good on paper last out too, and couldn’t switch leads. #2 New York One (8/1) was second last out in his first race off a brief layoff, while closing into a fast pace. Don’t know how fast the tempo will be here, but he’s got enough of a kick to suck up for a piece.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-14-9-2 (DIRT: 14-5-4-8)
Don’t know if any of the three grass races will stay on, but the fields in each of them have plenty of dirt experience, so there’s a good chance they stay intact. All written analyses will assume they’re on grass. #8 Hair of the Dog (10/1) showed plenty of speed on the grass last year both here and at Laurel Park. His only bad race came when he tried to stretch out around two turns. You can toss his last dirt race; he stumbled badly at the start. Might need a race first off the bench. #14 Mosler Safe (7/2) made what might have been a premature move last out, but he held on for second, earned a very strong figure of 76, and cuts back from six furlongs. Mike Trombetta is 20% first time on grass. #9 First Law (7/5) gets first-time lasix and drops in for a tag for the first time. It’s also his first time around one turn. The biggest possible impediment is that it’s his first start off a long rest.

RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

4-3-1-2
#4 Forloveofcountry (4/5) crossed the wire in his mid-Atlantic debut at Parx last out, but was disqualified. Still, he earned a giant figure of 90 in that race, and has good tactical speed. Jamie Ness horses sometimes don’t race as well in Maryland as they do at Parx, but he can afford to regress a few points and still win. His stablemate is the #3 Sir Back in Black (6/1) who stretches out and made a solid move last out into a strong second quarter. Steadily ran in the mid-80s last year, and appears to be rounding back into that type of form. #1 Galatians (4/1) has dangerous early speed for the trainer/jockey combo of Damon Dilodovico and Horacio Karamanos, but makes his first start off the layoff.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

1-8-13-2 (DIRT: 5-4-7-2)
#1 Padrino’s Heart (9/2) is one of the few in here with good grass form and recent experience. He’ll make his second start off the layoff here, after breaking slowly and losing position last out. Has some of the best early pace figures in the race. #8 Tauber (9/2) won twice on the Laurel grass last year and goes first off the bench after some time off following a dull January 1 race. #13 Sky’s Not Falling (6/1) was stakes-placed four times as a 2-year-old, but was a non-threatening fifth in his lone 3-year-old start to date, which came in March at Gulfstream Park. Looks for a rebound against softer.
RACE 5 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

1-5-2-7
#1 Stir Crazy (7/2) got lots of action in her debut, going off as the 1.50-1 favorite. She ran a big race, battling on the lead throughout with the eventual winner before tiring late against a filly with experience. Now, she has speed from the inside against a field of mostly firsters. Will be tough to catch. #5 Hope Has a Name (6/1) makes her first start of her 3-year-old season, after two respectable efforts to begin her career last fall at Delaware Park. Worked a bullet last week, going four furlongs in 47 1/5 seconds, the fastest of fourteen works at the distance. Also gets lasix for the first time. #2 Arrest Warrant (7/2) goes first out for Mike Stidham. She was purchased for $85,000 at the OBS sale last March, and has some solid workouts.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

2-1-5-4
#2 Parched Ghost (7/2) ran a big figure of 75 last out despite getting hung wide the entire way around. In a paceless race, she has decent early pace figures, so she could find herself on the lead by default. #1 Olive’s Bumpa (9/2), by contrast, has a slow, grinding style that earned her a victory last out. Should take full advantage of the long Pimlico stretch. #5 Postino’s Secret (7/2) tends to get caught behind slow paces, and might get stuck behind another one here, but does have good closing speed regardless.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

7-1-3-6 (DIRT: 10-4-8-1)
#7 Mucha Mezquina (4/1) makes her first start of the year for trainer Mark Salvaggio, who is 16% with horses coming off a long layoff. Won against slightly weaker last summer at Laurel despite a rough break. Will be forwardly placed under Jevian Toledo, who is off to a strong start this meet. #1 Virginia Beach (7/2) makes her seasonal debut after missing the board in two stakes at Gulfstream Park late last year. Went gate-to-wire to beat Virginia-breds at Laurel last fall. Trombetta should have her sharp. #3 Ellanation (6/1) showed brief speed in her first start off a year-plus layoff last out before fading. Has strong figures in the mid-80s back in her lines.

RACE 8: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

3-2-1-6
#3 Souper Boom (7/5) drops for a tag for the first time, adds blinkers, and picks up the hot-riding Carol Cedeno. Looms large at likely low odds. #2 Lifespan (9/2) has been knocking on the door and has improving figures, but the 0-for-16 record is a bit alarming. #1 Dashing Circles (4/1) goes first out for Ollie Figgins, who is 16% with first-time starters. Ships from Charles Town for his debut.