Pimlico picks and ponderings May 14, 2021

by | May 14, 2021 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Analysis

  • CARRYOVERS: Rainbow Pick 6 —  $11,948 Late Pick 5 — $0 Super Hi-5 — $1,652

First Race Post Time 11:30 am EDT

Race 1: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

  1. 6-11-2-1
  2. Happy Black-Eyed Susan day 2021! Lots of full fields and competitive betting races on today’s card. #6 Projected (7/2) comes in here off a win at this level at Gulfstream Park where he rated the trip and kicked away late. He’s run a brisnet figure of 82 in five of his last six starts. A repeat of any of those efforts gets him the win here, in all likelihood. #11 Apreciado (8/1) is another Gulfstream shipper. He goes first out for Jmmy Toner after a race against better where he sat the trip and didn’t have anything. He’s also put together a string of solid figures in the 80s. His lone recent win came when he was in close attendance to the pace. Gets a weight break due to being in for a lower price tag. #2 Golden Spear (8/1) makes his first start since November for Steve Kelsaris. Almost won against similar here last September, but stopped when he hit the front. Should sit the trip, but Carol Cedeno will have to time the move well.

Race 2: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

  1. 7-8-6-10
  2. Omati and Romp were early scratches at the time of writing. The latter was one of the morning line favorites. Every year, there’s late-blooming 3-year-olds who get the attention of wiseguys. #7 Dr Jack (5/2) might be one of those this year. He broke his maiden professionally at first asking last out at Gulfstream Park. He earned a strong speed and late pace figure, suggesting that he shouldn’t have much trouble handling the stretch-out. Of course, Todd Pletcher horses are always dangerous in races like this. #8 Royal Number (3/1) ran a good race in the Federico Tesio Stakes, finishing third despite getting stuck behind a slow pace. Owns an impressive two-turn win, which came at Laurel Park in January. In that race, he stalked a fast pace and drew away. Since then, he’s gotten behind, at best, moderate tempos. #6 American Fleet (12/1) is a perfect 3-for-3 for Jamie Ness, with his last win coming via disqualification. Ness and Jamie Rodriguez teamed up for a 7/1 winner yesterday. This one will be a factor on the early pace.

Race 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

  1. 7-8-5-12
  2. None of the fourteen horses in here have any grass experience. Make of that what you will. #7 Response Time (6/1) was impressive on debut last out, closing for second despite some traffic trouble. Her workout since that start, a four-furlong drill in 49 seconds, was sharp. Hamilton Smith is a respectable 16% with horses second time out. #8 Miranda’s Diamond (7/2) will get action because Florent Geroux picked up the mount, and because trainer Ben Perkins is a strong 27% with first-time starters. Workouts have been strong. #5 Who Knows What (15/1) is the most experienced member of the field; this is her sixth career start. Her last start, which was her first race of the year, was her best. She fought hard on the lead and missed by just a neck. Luis Garcia keeps the mount.

 Race 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

  1. 3-4-1-5
  2. #3 Dinosaur Ben (3/1) has won three of his last four starts, and gets his stiffest class test here. He’s run figures in the 90s in back-to-back starts. In his lone start around two turns on a full-sized track, at Laurel Park in January, he was clear in the stretch but lugged in and crossed the wire second. It looks like he’s matured since then, based on his improving figures. #4 Point Driven (5/1) stretches out around two turns after a narrow miss at this level going seven furlongs last out. David Cohen picks up the mount. He will come from far out of it. #1 Ratify (8/1) looks for his third win in a row for the Russell tandem, after starting his career a chronic 0-for-11 maiden. He’s run lifetime top figures in back-to-back races. Both times, he closed off slow paces. 

Race 5: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

  1. 8-15-1-4
  2. Sublimity was an early scratch. It’s not an easy proposition taking low odds on a horse who hasn’t raced in almost a year, but #8 Beantown Baby (6/5) will be very dangerous if she runs back to her top form first off the long layoff. She’s run no worse than an 83 in her five grass starts, and absolutely crushed a starter optional claiming field in her last start, on July 3 at Laurel Park. Arnaud Delacour is 23% coming off a 90+ day layoff. Joel Rosario picks up the mount. #15 American Goddess (2/1) draws in off the also-eligible list with the early scratch. She finally broke her maiden in her eighth career start last out at Keeneland, with a big figure of 89. That was her first start off a six-month layoff. A good bet for believers in the lightbulb angle. #1 Pretty Lori (6/1) has speed from the inside, and looks well-bred for the grass. 

Race 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

  1. 1-2-7-5
  2. Air Token is an early scratch. #1 Jeopardy James (8/1) earned a career-best figure of 97 last out, in a gutsy effort while winning a first-level allowance at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s had a spotty career; this is just his fifth start in 23 months. Still, he’s improved every time out and has good tactical speed. He’ll make a good value play if he stays near his morning line. #2 Belle Tapisserie (7/2) and #7 Wondrwherecraigis (9/2) represent a powerful tandem for Brittany Russell. The former has won four in a two recently, and goes first off the claim for Kieron Magee. He will be tough on the lead. Carol Cedeno, who had been riding him regularly, keeps the mount. The latter was a hard-fought third in the Gold Fever Stakes at Belmont Park last July, but has not been seen since finishing fourth in what proved to be a very tough Amsterdam Stakes at Saratoga. This is a tough spot to make a comeback, but he’s shown a lot of talent and a lot of heart. 

Race 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

  1. 12-1-5-11
  2. McElmore Avenue and Hanalei’s Houdini are early scratches. #12 Street Copper (8/1) just missed in each of his last two at Gulfstream Park after getting good trips rating off the leaders. Finds a spot where a lot of them are coming off long layoffs, whereas he’s already raced four times this year. Jose Ortiz rode him twice in Florida and keeps the mount here. #1 Lucky Ramsey (6/1) is a perfect 1-for-1 on the Pimlico grass, having just missed his career-best grass mark on this surface last September. He’s gotten some time off since a dull try at Aqueduct in January. Gets back to his preferred surface here. #5 Gunnison (15/1) raced wide throughout at Fair Grounds last out, but still rallied to get third with a strong figure of 86. Kelly Rubley sent out one with a similar profile who almost wired them at 18/1 yesterday. 

Race 8: ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF MATCH SERIES STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES

  1.  5-2-4-6
  2. The stakes action begins here. The Jersey-bred #5 Horologist (3/1) has won three of her last five, including her first start off the layoff last time in the Top Flight Invitational Stakes at Aqueduct. She beat Mrs. Danvers and Lucky Stride in her that race, both of whom she’ll see here. Looks to add another stakes win to her resume here. Brad Cox has a pair in here, in the #2 Dreamalildreamofu (10/1) and the #4 Getridofwhatailesu (7/2). The latter will likely get more money, off a big class drop from the Apple Blossom Handicap and a win in the Pippin Stakes earlier in the year. The former is intriguing at a likely better price, as Florent Geroux, who is Cox’s go-to rider, gets the mount, and she’s been moving forward in her last few. She’s coming off a sharp stalking win in the Latonia Stakes last out.

Race 9: THE VERY ONE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

  1. 3-11-2-5
  2. Note that the late pick 5 begins here. #3 Caravel (7/2) ran big in her first start of the year, the License Fee Stakes at Belmont Park. She set a contested pace, but held on well to secure third. She just missed her career-top figure, earning a 90 in that spot. Florent Geroux gets the mount here. #11 Dixieincandyland (3/1) sat the trip and got up to win a tough allowance at Keeneland last out. Should enjoy another good setup here, rating on the outside. #2 Gogo Shoes (12/1) went gate-to-wire in her season debut at Aqueduct last out, cruising under the wire with a sharp figure of 87. She looks at home sprinting on the grass. 


Race 10: MISS PREAKNESS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

  1. 2-8-5-9
  2. #2 Red Ghost (5/1) is a perfect 2-for-2 on dirt, including a sharp win last out at Keeneland, where she closed into a strong pace and drew away. She earned a figure of 91 in that race, in her first start of the year. #8 Euphoric (6/1) was impressive in her maiden win three back at Fair Grounds, then was equally sharp in a first-level allowance optional claiming race next out. She seeks a rebound from a dull effort in the Eight Belles Stakes, where she showed speed, set a fast pace, and backed up. #5 Street Lute (9/2) is already a six-time stakes winner in Maryland. Last out, she tried to stretch out in the Beyond the Wire Stakes at a mile, but faded after contesting the pace. She cuts back to a sprint, which she prefers, but also takes a big jump in class. 

Race 11: HILLTOP STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

  1.  2-5-6-12
  2. #2 Seasons (8/1) has gotten stuck behind a slow pace in each of her two starts, but both times closed to finish credibly. Last out, she was third in the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine, improving her figure thirteen points from her debut. Gets lasix for the first time in her 3-year-old debut. #5 Bubbles On Ice (7/2) just got up after a wide trip to win the Memories of Silver Stakes at Aqueduct last out in her stateside debut. Also adds lasix for the first time. Showed a lot of heart to get up there despite a slow pace in front of her. #6 Mia Martina (6/1) gets a much-needed return to the grass off a dismal effort on dirt in the Gazelle Stakes last out. Started her career a perfect 2-for-2 on the lawn. She’s another late runner.

Race 12: PIMLICO SPECIAL STAKES MATCH SERIES STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 3/16 MILES

  1.  2-11-7-1
  2. A field of ten squares off in this historic classic. Alwaysmining will not get a chance at Preakness weekend redemption, as he was an early scratch. #2 Fearless (9/5) won the Gulfstream Park Mile two back in a come-from-behind effort, then closed for second in the Oaklawn Handicap. Not bad for his first two starts off an eight-month layoff. Looks to rate right off the pace from the inside. #11 Last Judgment (4/1) has plenty of early speed, and while it’s not an ideal draw, it’s a long run to the first turn. Should have ample time to clear. #7 Harpers First Ride (10/1) comes home for the first time since entering the Robertino Diodoro barn. He won this race in a hard-fought battle last year over Owendale. It’s known that he likes racing in Maryland; coming back here could wake him up after some disappointing tries at Oaklawn Park. 

Race 13: GEORGE E. MITCHELL BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/8 MILES

  1.  6-10-3-9
  2. #6 Iced Latte (8/1) comes in off a sharp second-place try against allowance company at Belmont Park and will look to show speed once again here. #10 Beautiful Gift (9/5) battled in both the Santa Ysabel Stakes and the Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita Park, winning the former but losing the latter. Will look to avoid getting stuck behind a slow pace. #3 Spritz (20/1) almost wired them in the Bourbonette Oaks after setting a fast pace, but got caught late. Looks interesting at big odds.

Race 14: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

  1.  10-3-8-1
  2. #10 Fool Yourself (3/1) races for trainer Niall Saville and jockey Feargal Lynch, who were a dangerous combination last year. This filly drops in for a tag for the first time and has run some great late pace figures against better in New York. #3 Celestial Diva (15/1) goes third time out for Hamilton Smith, and drops back in for a tag. Showed little after bearing out last out, but closed well for fifth with a decent figure of 69 on debut. #8 Jungle Bride (12/1) goes first on grass for Mike Trombetta, who is 20% with that angle. He’s also 25% with first-time lasix.