Pimlico picks and ponderings June 5, 2021

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $915,457 Super High 5 — $1,737 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

• 1A-1-4-5
• Open claimers are on tap for the first race on Belmont Stakes day. The track will be FAST after dodging some stormy bullets. The condition of the grass is up in the air, but it will be a warm, sunny day today which should help the cause. Both halves of the Ness entry look strong. #1A Hidenseek Sally (8/5) earned a season’s best figure of 84 when going gate-to-wire against a better field last out. Her stablemate #1 Lake Chicot (8/5) also has early speed and will almost certainly improve off her last start at Penn National, where she set very fast fractions and stopped in the stretch. Interesting to see J.D. Acosta named on both horses; he usually doesn’t ride for Ness. #4 Yesterdaysplan (5/2) is the opposite kind of horse, in that she has no early speed at all. Last out, she sat well off a slow pace, and made a belated bid for third. If one of the aforementioned two end up sneaking away on the lead, she can once again rally on for a piece. 

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

2-4-7-8 (DIRT: 5-6-7-1)

 #2 Gins and Tins (8/1) made his first start in a while last out. He’s usually forwardly placed, but lost crucial early position when he was squeezed at the start. In spite of that, he made a strong closing bid to just miss second. He was claimed out of that race by Michael Gorham, who hits at 23% with that angle. Should improve second off the bench. He can rate right off the abundant early speed and pounce. #4 By the Sey Shore (3/1) races for just the second time in the past sixteen months. He’ll likely get overbet because of the Trombetta factor, but he’s been working strongly, ran figures in the 80s pretty steadily at Gulfstream Park last winter, and will get to close into a fast pace. Among the speed horses, #7 Doctor K (5/1) looks like the fastest one early on, and has run figures as high as 101 on dirt. Interested to see how he takes to the grass.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 4-1-5-2
• While the 0-for-9 record of #4 Writteninthestars (1/1) is a bit off-putting, she has easily the best figures in the field, cuts back in distance, and goes back to her preferred surface. Will likely be forwardly placed in a race without much speed. #1 Americas Woman (2/1) takes a career-low drop in class in her fourth lifetime outing. All three of her races have been visually unimpressive, but she earned a 64 two starts back, in her first race off a break. If she duplicates that effort, she’s dangerous. #5 Bobbini (9/2) cuts back from 1 1/16 miles and showed speed for the first time in her most recent race. It would serve her well to show it again. 

 ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 12-6-2-1 (DIRT: 5-9-10-11)
• #12 Cold Hearted Cat (8/1) made her first start in six months last out against better. She earned a figure of 70 while closing ground sharply in the stretch, right below her usual figure range. With some improvement second off the bench, she’ll be tough. #6 Makhato (2/1) was in position to strike in her last start when she was cut off in the stretch by the eventual winner, who was disqualified. In spite of that, she finished third, getting placed second, and was also making her first start since January. #2 Bourbon Gal (4/1) is lightly-raced and has early with an advantageous draw. She didn’t get the lead last out and ended up third, but shouldn’t have trouble getting to the front here. 

RACE 5 – CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

• 7-6-4-1
• #7 Ortinola (8/5) has been knocking on the door at this level, but hasn’t broken through recently. She showed heart in her last start at Charles Town, battling on the lead throughout and losing by a neck. She’s earned at least a 74 in her last three races. Only one horse in the field has hit that mark at any point within their last three. It’s now or never. #6 Flyin It (7/2) has moved through her conditions quickly, with wins in each of her last two races. Ran far and away a career-best mark of 71 last out when showing good tactical speed. #4 Mavilus (7/2) adds blinkers and stretches out around two turns on dirt for the first time. Ran in the low-70s several times while sprinting. If she can stretch out, she’ll be a contender.
• RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 11-9-2-1 (DIRT: 3-12-2-11)
• #11 Thruster (4/1) flew home at Aqueduct last out, missing by a nose after a seven-wide sweep. Granted, he got a fast pace to run into, but it was a strong rally, a much-improved effort from last time, and this is a softer field. #9 Hair of the Dog (6/1) ran big in his second start off the bench, setting the pace and almost wiring them. He’ll be a tough customer on the lead once again. #2 Prince Pere (3/1) just missed in two tries at this level last year, now makes his first start since January. He’ll likely challenge Hair of the Dog on the lead from the inside. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES

• 5-4-1-2
• #5 Moonsafe (3/1) broke her maiden by fifteen lengths at Laurel Park in February, with a big figure of 83. She was in a bit over her head in the Weber City Miss Stakes two back, then switched to grass last out and didn’t do so well. Finally faces a field she can beat over her preferred surface. #4 Vegas Weekend (7/2) ships up from Florida off a lifetime top figure of 86. She finished third at this level down there, in a visually unimpressive race. Two races ago, she drew off impressively to break her maiden by five lengths with a figure of 84. May enjoy the class relief here. #1 Tayler’s Chrome (5/2) was in good form prior to a disastrous last effort first off the layoff at Parx. Seeks a bounceback here for Claudio Gonzalez, who sends out Completed Pass in today’s Jackpocket Jaipur Stakes at Belmont Park.

RACE 8: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 6-7-4-2 (DIRT: 6-7-1-2)
• #6 So Dialed In (2/1) got up to clear his n/w2L condition last out, earning a lifetime top figure of 80. He’s one of two in here who has crossed the wire first on grass this year. The other is #7 Xmasinthecity (8/5), who wired the field last out but was disqualified. The draw isn’t ideal but he is the fastest one early by far. We’ll know his chances in the first five seconds. #4 Dragon Moon (7/2) runs for the first time since late November. He earned a 77 in his last grass race, just missing after a strong late surge.

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