Pimlico picks and ponderings July 18, 2021

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 -$13,742 Super High 5 — $700 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 2-5-4-6
• Yesterday’s card was cut short due to lightning, the second time the card has been cancelled this meet due to weather. Hopefully we’ll get through this one without any trouble. #2 Miss Bosconovitch (4/5) was the favorite against better last out, after running back-to-back brisnet figures in the mid-70s. However, she got hung wide and showed little. Now, she drops to towards the inside against a softer field. As a result, she’ll be very tough. #5 Mexicali Rose (5/2) surged and just missed in her debut against a similar field as today’s. She didn’t show any early speed in that race, but if she’s a bit more forwardly placed this time, she’ll have a big chance. #4 Hashtag Lucky (9/2) ships up from Florida after three straight in-the-money finishes. She has the best last out figure in the race, having earned an 80 while rallying for second last out. She’s intriguing if she stays near her morning line.
• RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
• 4-7-6-3

• #4 Manicomio (5/2) got hung wide on the lead last out, and faded in the stretch. Here, it looks he’ll be able to control the tempo from the inside. #7 Lost My Vowcher (6/1) goes first off the claim for Ferris Allen, adds blinkers, and will try to press Manicomio on the lead from the outside post. He went gate-to-wire in a gutsy effort two back. #6 Blue Sky Painter (7/2) goes out for the dangerous Jerry Robb/Xavier Perez combination. This one was the favorite at this level last out, and made a strong, wide bid to get fourth, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths. Should be a dangerous closing threat, especially if the pace is fast. 

RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,0000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 5-4-3-6 (DIRT: 7-4-5-6)
• #5 Olive Kat (2/1) sat the trip and powered away to win her first start of the year last out. She just missed her career-top, earning a figure of 87. Looks to sit another great trip here. #4 Fast Lani (5/1) sprinted away from weaker and won handily in her last race. She’ll likely try to win this one gate-to-wire. If she fades, Olive Kat will be there to pick up the pieces. #3 Foggy Dreams (5/1) set the pace in her last grass start, at Penn National, and almost finished the wire job before getting caught late. Her dirt form has declined lately; looks to wake up on the grass. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

• 1-2-3-7
• #1 Bahama Channel (9/2) gets a much-needed drop in class and has a favorable draw. He lasted to win on the lead a few starts back, but hasn’t been able to hold it together on the front end recently. He’ll have every chance to change that here. #2 Brutus (9/5) also drops in class and hasn’t missed the board in his last six races. He hasn’t been able to capitalize on stalking trips in his last few, so ideally he’ll try to press Bahama Channel and try to melt that rival down. #3 Glengar (5/1) stretches back out from six furlongs, and held on to beat a similar field as this one three races back. However, his form has been going the wrong way for his last two starts. 
• RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
• 5-6-9-1 (DIRT: 2-1-8-6)
• #5 Pau Hana (2/1) races third off the layoff. In her first start of the year, she tried to wire them in a 1 3/8 mile contest, but faded late. In her last start, she rated off the lead and finished a mild third. Her figures are consistently in the upper echelon of what’s needed to win this one. #6 Love My Cat (6/1) rallied frantically late and missed by just 3/4 of a length, in what was by far her best race. Looks to keep moving forward. #9 Monster Rising (6/1) was a sharp third in her grass debut two races back, then stopped badly in her last race. She’s making just her fourth career start here, and has every chance to rebound. She must if she wants to win this one. 
• RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

• 2-5-6-1
• We’ve got a competitive field for today’s feature. #2 Eastern Bay (2/1) just missed in the DeFrancis Dash last year over this track, finishing second by a nose to Laki. Last out, this one broke slow, got settled in his usual spot, but didn’t fire with a subpar figure of 89. Returns here from Delaware Park and should improve as a result. #5 Wondrwherecraigis (5/2) has shown very up-and-down form, but when he’s on his game, he’s very tough. He blew away a n/w2x field on this track two races ago. #6 Arthur’s Hope (9/2) has steady figures in the 90s and great middle pace figures, but struggles to make winning moves. He’s best used underneath.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 7-1-4-5
• #7 Joyful Noise (7/2) has won three of her last five, rating off the pace and grinding by each time. This isn’t a big jump in class for her, but she’ll still need to sit the trip on the outside. #1 Calypso Ghost (6/1) had a brutal trip while hung wide last time. She races much better when allowed to do her thing on the lead. She’ll have every chance to do that here. #4 Awesome Pal (10/1) is also coming off a wide trip in her last start. Goes second off the layoff and gets some class relief. If you toss out that last line, her figures fit right in with these. 

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