Pimlico picks and ponderings July 23, 2021

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 -$16,420 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

• 8-7-1-10
• This race starts one of the better cards of the Laurel-at-Pimlico meet. #8 Dancingwithpaynter (3/1) has been impressive in her two starts at this level this year. Last out, she got up in the last few jumps to win, beating  a few of the rivals she’ll see here. Her stalking running style is perfect for these kind of races. #7 Fed Up Fired Up (5/2) continues to drop down the class ladder; she started her year against stakes company. Last out, against better at Monmouth Park, she was hung wide the entire way and dropped back. However, she earned back-to-back brisnet figures in the mid-80s in her first two starts of the year. #1 Jumpstartmyheart (5/1) closed from far behind to lose to Dancingwithpaynter by 1 3/4 lengths in her season debut. She won the Maryland Million Distaff Turf Starter Handicap with a similarly bold move. If she wins this one, it will likely be in desperate fashion. 
• RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
• 1-4-6-2

• #1 Moonzano (8/5) earned a figure of 71 when finishing second at this level last out, the best last-out mark in the group by eleven points. The 0-for-10 record is not ideal, but given the quality of the rest of these, or lack thereof, it’s possible he’s finally found a field that he can beat. #4 Don’t Dare Me (2/1) ships from Charles Town, where he’s shown blazing speed in all of his recent starts. Unfortunately for him, he tends to cough up those leads late. In his last three races, he lost at odds-on. This is the lowest claiming level he’s been at, but this is probably not that big a class drop compared to the maiden special weights at Charles Town. #6 Pet’s Night (5/1) improved a bit second time out in his most recent race, running a 60 while finishing third. He exits the same race as Moonzano, and while he was not able to gain any ground on that rival, he could take another step forward third time out.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 5-11-10-7
• We’ve got a 12-horse field in here, but only three look like serious contenders. #5 Bourbon Wildcat (7/2) races for the first time on grass here. She’s going second off the layoff, first off the claim for Charles Frock, and has blazing early speed. She’ll try to run this field off their feet. #11 Philly Creed (5/2) went off as the favorite on debut at Delaware Park last out, and closed well to second, with a giant figure of 84. She’s also making her first start on the lawn. If she replicates her debut, she’ll be tough. #10 Who Knows What (7/2) drops from the $40,000 level, where she’s closed sharply in back-to-back tries. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 6-5-13-11
• #6 Jenna’s the Boss (4/1) ran a career-best figure of 73 in her first start at this level, when she was a solid second behind runaway early leader Zig. She’ll rate right off the pace and try to hang in there late. #5 Great Cause (4/1) ran a gutsy race in her last dirt start, battling on the lead and drawing off to break her maiden emphatically. Goes second off a brief freshening and will likely be sent. #13 Sprit or Sprite (10/1) earned a 73 in an impressive maiden win three races back, but has been only fair in her two starts against winners. Keeps dropping down the class ladder and finds a spot that should fit her. 
• RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)
• 9-6-4-11
• #9 One Most Wanted (5/2) took a bit of a step back in the speed figure department last out, regressing to a 69 from the 72 he earned two starts back. However, he had some traffic trouble in that race, so with a cleaner trip, he should improve. Damon Dilodovico takes over the training from Kent Sweezey. #6 Favorite Image (4/1) ran huge in his grass debut last out at Penn National. He went winging out on the early lead, but almost held on despite blazing fractions, losing by a head. The horse who beat him, Lupi, sat a perfect trip, and came back to win an allowance race next out at Presque Isle Downs. #4 Storm Tower (4/1) gets back to the grass and consistently runs figures in the mid-60s, which make him very competitive here. 
• RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

• 7-3-8-4
• #7 Sam and Sy (3/1) was impressive in his first two starts of the year, including a strong come-from-behind win two races ago. However, he regressed badly last out, and will need to rebound to contend here. #3 Frankee Merch (5/1) made his local debut last out, and closed strongly for second despite a wide trip. Denis Araujo, one of Charles Town’s top jockeys, comes back for this mount. He’s got three mounts today, and this one looks like the most live of them all. #8 Amen Corner (8/1) ran figures in the 70s pretty consistently earlier in the meet, and looks for a rebound after a brief freshening. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

• 7-3-8-9
• #7 Judi Blue Eyes (9/5) is a perfect 2-for-2 on the Pimlico grass this season, slowly advancing her way up the class ladder. She won a n/w1x allowance on Preakness day, defeating Out of Sorts, who came back to win her next two races. #3 I’m Listening (3/1) ran four straight figures in the 80s on grass this winter at Gulfstream Park, and gets back to her preferred surface after a dull try on dirt at Monmouth Park. Last out on grass, she led briefly in the stretch but got caught. Can she pull away this time? #8 Quiet Company (4/1) stretches back out from five furlongs and has dangerous early speed. She just missed wiring the field in the Jameela Stakes last out.
• RACE 8: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

• 3-6-5-4
• #3 Everett’s Song (3/5) just missed in a big debut effort at Delaware. He was the 8/5 second choice, and came hard up the inside and lost by just 3/4 of a length, with a huge figure of 86. If he replicates that performance, he’ll be almost impossible to beat. #6 Pederson’s Courage (5/2) closed  well to get second at second asking, and may well have won if he had changed leads. Even though it’s a class hike on paper, it’s a similar field to what he saw in that prior race. #5 Rippolino (10/1) rallied wide to just miss second in his first start off the layoff last out. Has every chance to close for a piece of the exotics here as well. 

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