Pimlico picks and ponderings July 25, 2021

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 -$0 Super High 5 — $636 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

• 3-6-5-2
• #3 Pat’s Factor (5/2) gets back to dirt and drops in class, after a disastrous effort while wide in his first start against winners. He showed guts in a maiden-breaking score two races back, albeit against a soft field. #6 Clever and Great (8/5) also drops in class and makes his second start against winners. He was impressive in victory two starts back at 18/1, but then backed up in his first try against better. Should enjoy the class relief. #5 Gallinipper (7/2) goes third off the layoff for trainer Hugh McMahon, and ran figures in the 70s on a fairly consistent basis towards the end of last year. 
• RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
• 1-4-5-2

• #1 Irishman (7/2) faced better in his two grass tries over the winter at Gulfstream Park, and while he wasn’t visually impressive, the figures he earned make him very competitive with these. He hasn’t shown much life in dirt lately, but those races have kept him in shape, and he has some good recent workouts. #4 Rip It (7/2) checked when in the midst of a move last out, but still matched his career-best figure of 72. He’s shown hints of a closing punch in some of his grass starts; he’s a serious threat if he can put it all together. #5 Antipoison (3/1) ran big last out, earning a lifetime-top mark of 76 while stalking the pace, briefly leading in the stretch, and flattening out. He didn’t change leads in the stretch that day, but if he does so here, he’ll be tough.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

• 3-4-6-1
• The rainbow pick 6 went down for $31,000 yesterday, so we’re starting from scratch today. It’s the first time one solo ticket hit it in about three months. #3 Tauber (5/2) earned two strong figures in a row when going shorter on dirt both here and at Monmouth Park. He rated well behind in both of those races, then closed strongly late. Stretching out to six furlongs should help. #4 Kwist (3/1) has gone gate-to-wire in his two wins, including a sharp effort against n/w2L foes last out. He’ll have to deal with some pace pressure from his outside, but he looks fast enough to get the lead and the rail. #6 Alpha Chi Ro (7/2) makes his first start for the Kieron Magee barn, and races for the first time since January 27, when he gamely held on after setting the pace at Charles Town. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 1-2-10-11
• All three of my top picks exit the same race on July 4. #1 Smitten Enough (7/2) almost blew up the board in his last start, flying late to lose by less than a length at more than 50/1. You won’t get those odds here, but it seems like he enjoys sprinting, and he gets to stay at this class level. #2 Gleaming Sword (9/5) outfinished Smitten Enough in that race, but he got a few lengths’ jump start. He gets a positive jockey switch to Jorge Ruiz, who hopefully will save more ground than his previous rider did last out, when he got fanned five-wide entering the stretch. #10 Lost Uncle (12/1) made his second career start in that race, and improved sharply when flying in the last eighth. Leading jockey Charlie Marquez gets the mount.
• RACE 5: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
• 7-5-6-4
• #7 Frankee Merch (5/1) was scratched on Friday to race here. Even though he’s racing for a higher claiming price here, on paper, they’re similar spots. He made his first local start in a while last out, and he ran on well for second despite a wide trip. He got a worse draw than he would’ve had on Friday, so regular jockey Denis Araujo will have to avoid another wide trip. #5 Doobiedoobiedoobie (7/5) has the best figures on paper and drops in class, but he probably should’ve won his last two races, and he couldn’t get the job done either time. It’s possible that this spot is easy enough that he can win in spite his inability to close, but at low odds, he’s a bit of a gamble. #6 Fast Cash (3/1) was claimed for $16,000 out of his last race by Hugh McMahon, who immediately drops him in class. He bore out in his last start and was pulled up, but was in excellent form prior to that. It’s hard to get a read on him, but he can be used with the knowledge that if he finds his form from earlier this year, which saw him consistently run figures in the 80s, he’ll be tough. 
• RACE 6: CLAIMING $12,500, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 4-8-11-9
• #4 Lady Magica (5/2) goes out for the Jamie Ness/Ruben Silvera trainer/jockey combo, which is money at Parx and has also enjoyed success here. This mare went gate-to-wire over this track two starts back, then chased next-out winner Olive Kat at Monmouth and wound up second. She’s going to be a serious factor on the early pace. #8 Buff’s In Love (3/1) has held her own against better at a wide variety of east coast tracks. She’s remarkably consistent, having earned a 79 in three of her last five starts. She won on this course earlier in the meet, and the drop in class should help in this spot. #11 Caterina One (10/1) drops from the n/w1x level for John Salzman Jr, who is 29% with horses off a 46-90 day break. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

• 5-7-2-3
• #5 Tusk (8/5) has won twice in a row at this level, most recently earning a figure of 100 in a gutsy effort. His stablemate, #7 My  Good Man (6/1) won his last start by fourteen lengths, and although it’s unrealistic to expect he’ll win by that much again, he’s in improving form and has good tactical speed. #2 Weather Wiz (7/2) is another Ness/Silvera runner who gets back to his preferred surface and should be rolling late. 
• RACE 8: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 2-4-3-6
• #2 Field Truffle (9/2) was sharp in her first start in eighteen months last out, chasing to finish second against better at Delaware. Trainer Justin Nixon is 20% with horses second off the layoff. #4 Dew Dat (3/5) was relatively impressive last fall at Laurel Park, but she hasn’t raced since mid-November, and Hamilton Smith is not great first off a long layoff. She commands respect, but at low odds, she’s worth a shot against. #3 Broadway Trouper (12/1) adds blinkers and has good late pace figures. She could round out the exotics at a good price. 

LATEST IN HANDICAPPING