Pimlico picks and ponderings August 13, 2021

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $1,350 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 5-3-2-6
• This field doesn’t like to win, so I’ll try the horse who, so far, dislikes winning the least. #5 Great Cause (7/5) was a strong closing second last out behind Lambeau Lady, who was the prohibitive odds-on favorite and came back to finish third against better last Saturday. This one hasn’t missed the board in her last six dirt starts, and has run brisnet figures in the 70s in her last two starts. #3 Adabel (7/2) is doomed by her lack of early speed, which has led to her 1-for-28 career record. However, she has good closing speed and matched her lifetime top of 71 last out when finishing behind Great Cause. #2 Meet Michelle (4/1) gets a rider change to John Hiraldo and ships back from Colonial Downs. Her form has been up and down as of late, but she was a decent second with a figure of 72 in her last dirt race. 

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

8-5-6-7

Jerry Robb will saddle two in here, and he’s put his top-call jockey, Xavier Perez, on #8 California Bella (2/1). She was a strong-closing second against straight maidens at Delaware Park last out. She earned an 80 in that race, twelve points better than anyone else in the field has run on dirt. #6 Runup (9/2) got action on debut at Colonial last out, and was third, albeit beaten ten lengths. The winner, Cavalier Cupid, won the Keswick Stakes in her next start. This one’s workouts have been very sharp. Horacio Karamanos rode both Runup and #5 I’m Gittin There (6/1) in their debuts, but stays with Runup. That’s a good sign. The other one debuted on grass at Colonial last out, and made a four-wide rally to get fourth. I’d like to see her try a bit longer, but she’s still worth watching here. 

RACE 3: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 1-5-4-3
• #1 Frankee Merch (2/1) has run at least a 75 in each of his last two races. He almost wired a similar field last out, but was overtaken in the last few strides. He looks like the fastest one early on here, and he’s got every chance to complete the wire job this time. #5 Keepyourguardup (9/5) ships from Delaware Park, where he’s won his last start. In fact, he’s crossed the wire first in three of his last five starts, but was disqualified from a win at Laurel Park back in March. He has good tactical speed and should sit a great trip. #4 Golazo (7/2) goes out for the Jamie Ness/Jaime Rodriguez combo, and you should get a square price if you enjoy betting on them. He fell a bit further off the pace than usual last time, and it may have cost him. He’ll look to stay close to the front this time. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 1-6-8-7
• Your eyes are not deceiving you: that’s a graded stakes-placed filly breaking from the inside post in this race. #1 Frosteria (1/2) has been second in each of her four career starts, including the Santa Ynez Stakes in January at Santa Anita Park. She hasn’t raced since then, but has been working strongly at Fair Hill for new trainer Mike Stidham. If she runs her race, she’s going to be very tough to beat. #6 Brandyurafinegirl (12/1) had a tough trip on debut at Charles Town, but bounced back and got second. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some improvement on the big track. #8 Belle of the North (15/1) improved dramatically second time out and cuts back around one turn for the first time. 
• RACE 5 – CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 9-4-3-5
• #9 Smitten Enough (8/1) was pressed all the way last out, but held on to break his maiden. He’s improved dramatically in all three of his grass starts, and is one of two in here who has never lost against winners. He has a big upset chance. #4 Belmullet (9/2) has been well-backed at this level, but hasn’t quite been able to break through. In both of his recent tries, he broke from the far outside post. The better draw here should help. #3 Noble Callisto (12/1) cuts back in distance and has blazing early speed for Ness and Rodriguez. 
• RACE 6- CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

• 5-3-2-1
• Charles Town’s top jockey, Arnaldo Bocachica, is in for the mount on #5 Solomonic (5/2) for Anthony Farrior. He won against similar horses at Charles Town two back, then shipped here t race against better and faded. This’ll be his third start in the mid-Atlantic area, since Farrior claimed him from Mike Maker. #3 Diamond Setter (7/2) races first off the claim for Jamie Ness, and has made strong rallies off slow paces in his last few. Looks to put it all together for the new barn here. #2 Snoop (4/1) was also claimed out of his last start, with Hugh McMahon taking over training. He raced wide throughout but closed for second, beaten just a neck. Takes a step up from the conditioned $4,000 level at Penn National but has the figures to win this. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 9-3-6-2
• #9 Mr J McKay (9/2) the brother of Maryland-bred stakes winner Miss J McKay, makes his second start off the layoff and third overall here. He improved in his first start off a brief break, running a 73 while also stretching out for the first time. Drops back in for a tag and looks to fire another big one. #3 Rip It (3/1) went off as the slight favorite last out, and got second after racing wide. He hasn’t run a bad race at the meet, but can he put it all together here? You’ll get low odds on that proposition. #6 Left Blank (5/1) has no early speed to speak of, but he’s flown in each of his last two to earn a respectable placing. I’m interested to see how he does stretching out from a mile to 1 1/16 miles. 
• RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
• 3-4-2-5
• #3 Thundershook (1/1) has won three in a row between Parx and Delaware. He has towering figures and it would be a surprise if anyone even threatened him at the end. #4 Tybalt (9/2) was wide throughout in his last race, a tough field which included stablemate Harpers First Ride. He’s had some time off since that June 27 race, and has great late pace figures. #2 Tappin Cat (7/2) has also been a chronic runner-up at the level, and was second in each of his last two tries after being on the pace. 
• RACE 9 – STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

2-1-3-7

• #2 Beckon (5/2) went gate-to-wire in an easy win last out. Two starts prior, she was third after setting the pace behind Out of Sorts, who was recently seen in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational. This one should take them gate-to-wire. #1 Sweet Talking Girl (10/1) got up to win after stalking the pace last out, despite not being able to change leads. Closed well two starts back despite falling behind a very slow pace. #3 A Girl Named Jac (3/1) stretches back out after a game try at five furlongs last out. She has improving figures, but her two-turn ability remains ambiguous. 

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