Pimlico picks and ponderings August 14, 2021

Horses round the first turn at Pimlico. Photo: Dottie Miller

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $2,328 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 5-4-1-9 (DIRT: 1-6-9-5)
• One, two, three, four, five days to go at Pimlico. #5 Borgobythesea (5/1) made his first start in ten months at Colonial Downs last out, and it wound up a career-best race. He set the pace before fading in the last eighth. The grass at Pimlico can carry horses all the way around, and if no one presses him, he might be gone. #4 Malibu Heaven (7/2) chased a loose leader at Colonial last out, and while he overtook that rival, he was engulfed by a rival last out and was no better than second. It represented improvement over his first try going long on grass, when he made a premature move and stopped. Patience will be the key here. #1 Jarlian (5/1) ships up from Florida and has been hung wide in his last two starts. He’s been improving since returning off a brief layoff in the spring. 

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

6-1-2-3

Most of this field doesn’t like to win. The favorite, #6 Replicant (4/5), is the only one in the field who has not lost at least twice against winners. He broke his maiden back in May, recovering after a slow start to prevail in a stretch battle. He’s run at least a 75 in each of his three starts this year; no one else in the race has run that fast within their last three. Unless he takes a big step back in his first start off the layoff, he’ll be tough. #1 Tiny Tin (9/2) has no early speed, but has put in steady, grinding rallies to get a piece in his last few starts. Along with Replicant, they’re the only two horses in the race with fewer than 10 starts to their name. #2 Stand My Ground (12/1) has held his own at this level and can round out the exotics at a big price. 

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 4-2-5-1
• #4 Baltimore Bullet (5/2) has worked strongly at Monmouth Park for Claudio Gonzalez, who ships him down here and puts Angel Cruz aboard. I’m thinking that the #5 Twist n’ Twirl (8/5) will be overbet thanks to the Motion connection, which should help the odds on Baltimore Bullet. #2 Cynergy’s Star (6/1) earned a respectable 66 on the grass in his debut at Colonial Downs. He now gets a little bit of class relief and adds Sheldon Russell. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 1-3-2-4
• #1 Littlebitalilly (7/5) has blazing speed and the inside draw. She went gate-to-wire in her last two starts at Penn National, and the others will be hard-pressed to catch her here. #3 Scarlet Tanager (9/2) also enters on a winning streak, having won her last three starts. If Littlebitalilly falters on the front end, this one will be right there to take advantage. #2 Joyful Noise (4/1) has a similar style as Scarlet Tanager and will try to rebound off a flat effort against similar last out. 
• RACE 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 10-3-7-5 (DIRT: 5-10-6-3)
• #10 Capstone Girl (3/1) faced much better maiden claimers in her grass debut at Belmont Park last out. Making her first start in more than nine months, she rated off the pace and fell flat. If she moves forward off that race, she’ll be very tough to beat. #3 Looks Don’t Lie (6/1) has flown from behind in her two recent grass starts, but might not have enough early speed to make it work in these kinds of races. Profiles as a better exotics candidate. #7 Ordinary Girl (5/2) set the pace and fade din her grass debut two back, then got into some trouble last out and didn’t have much of a chance. With a forward placing and a clean trip, he’s got a big shot. 
• RACE 6- ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 6 FURLONGS

• 1-7-2-3
• #1 Going to the Lead (5/2) was a bit further off the pace than he likes to be in his last start, but he came on with a rush to get second. He’s wired the field in two of his last four, and will likely try to do the same thing here. #7 Heir Port (4/1) won impressively at this level at Pimlico in April, earning a career-best figure of 91. He now returns to the dirt for the Dale Bennett barn, which is a very sharp 5-for-11 at the meet so far. #2 Shackled Love (10/1) won the Private Terms Stakes in a big upset back in March, but hasn’t found a spot that has quite suited him since then. He might want a bit more distance, but this is a more idyllic spot than he’s seen on dirt in a while. Worth a look if he stays near his morning line. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7 – ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

• 5-8-4-10 (DIRT: 4-9-10-3)
• #5 Sound the Charge (6/1) was outkicked in his grass debut at Parx, but held off the others and finished second after rating off the pace. Michael Pino is 21% second off the claim. #8 Take Profit (5/1) fell behind a very slow pace in the Bald Eagle Derby, and as such didn’t have much of a chance to catch up. He cuts back in distance here, and will have a big chance with an honest pace. Jerry O’Dwyer is 29% when racing third off the layoff. #4 Call Me Plucky (5/1) goes second off a very long layoff and adds blinkers for Brittany Russell. He’s shown great closing speed and will be rolling late. 
• RACE 8: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
• 8-1A-6-3
• #8 Eastern Bay (9/5) won the Polynesian Stakes last September at Laurel Park, and won against better earlier in the meet. However, he’s been tailing off a bit lately, and now gets some class relief. He should still have enough left in the tank to win against these. #1A Seanow (3/1) looks like the stronger half of the Jamie Ness entry, off four wins in his last five starts. He matched his lifetime top of 93 last out with a great stalking trip. #6 Stroll Smokin (12/1) won a n/w2x allowance optional claiming race two back, and was taken out of his last start by Dale Bennett. He disappointed in his last start, but he’s had a sharp workout since then and looks live at potentially overlaid odds. 
• RACE 9 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

4-9-1-3 (DIRT: 2-3-8-9)

• #4 War Light (9/2) made up almost fifteen lengths after a wide trip and got up to finish second in his grass debut last out. It was his first start off a long layoff; could run even better second off the layoff. #9 Gandolfo (5/1) ships in for Jane Cibelli off a strong-closing second last out at Delaware Park. He’s run between a 65 and a 67 in each of his four starts. If he improves a few more points, he’ll be right in the range needed to win this race. #1 One Most Wanted (7/2) made a big move that flattened out in the stretch last out, earning a lifetime-top figure of 77. Will be dangerous if he can duplicate it. 

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