Timonium picks and ponderings August 27, 2021

Horses approach the gate at Timonium. Photo: The Racing Biz

In which we pick the races from Timonium each day…

Post time: 3:00 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $4,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 4 FURLONGS

• 2-1-6-4
• After a one-year hiatus, the Big T is back! They’re kicking things off with a great 9-race card. Note the twilight post time of 3:00 today; that’s a one-off event. First post the rest of the way will be 12:40 p.m. #2 Zig (6/5) has gone gate-to-wire in two of her last three starts, and now gets to race on this speed haven. Enough said. #1 Family Fortune (3/1) has had some bad post luck lately, but now draws to the inside and may be sent for the lead by Grant Whitacre. She’s won two of her last five against similar. Even if she can’t outrun Zig early, she can rate second and round out the exacta. #6 Shak’s Hidden Gem (5/2) cuts back from 1 1/16 miles, where she showed little, and will press the pace from the outside.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

1-4-6-3

 There aren’t many Cal-breds who make their debut at Timonium, but that’s the case with #1 Bluegrass on Tap (5/2), a firster for Jamie Ness. She was stabled at Timonium over the summer, and gained some experience over this track with some sharp workouts, including a bullet drill a few weeks back. #4 Still Doing Time (1/1) has already started four times, with two runner-up finishes in her lines. She gets Xavier Perez back in the saddle, and has shown speed in the past, always a plus over this track. #6 Miz the Best (7/2) also has a bullet drill at Timonium under her belt for trainer Jerry O’Dwyer. Not sure about a $15,000 purchase debuting for a tag, but it’s possible he just wanted to get her raced here in a soft spot.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 4 FURLONGS

• 1-2-7-6
• We’ve got more 2-year-old fillies here, not in for a tag but going a bit shorter. #1 She’s a Fast One (5/2) was well-backed on debut at Keeneland, but had a terrible break and lost all chance. Next out, she was well-bet again at Belmont Park, and showed speed before fading. She’s had some time off since that May 20 performance, and races for Cal Lynch for the first time. If she breaks cleanly, the rest are in trouble. #2 Suzanne’s Singer (9/2) goes first out for Claudio Gonzalez, who hits at 26% with debuters. J.D. Acosta, off a great Pimlico meet, is named to ride. #7 Preparefortakeoff (8/1) had a tough trip on debut at Pimlico, and looks for improvement with a race under her belt. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

• 5-1-2-3
• Remember: the 1 1/16-mile races here have three turns. #5 Quest of Glory (10/1) has shown some early speed in the past, pressing the pace and fading in some of his last few. There’s not much speed in here, and if he gets to the front, he could pull off the upset. The 1-for-31 mark is alarming, but he’d be worth a few bucks if he goes off above his morning line. #1 Rockin Ron (2/1) also has speed from the inside, but he’s shown several times that he hasn’t been able to get the distance. He’ll need to work out a dream trip to win this one. However, don’t discount him for a spot in the exotics. #2 Muchacho Macho (9/5) has lost against winners *only* three times, from eight career starts, and has shown a decent closing kick. 

RACE 5 – CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 4 FURLONGS

• 5-3-2-4
• Anthony Farrior will send out two in here, and both look very live. #5 Raised Wrong (9/2) broke her maiden in sharp style over the Charles Town bullring on debut two races back, now finds herself on another small track. She had a terrible break last out and lost all chance. With a clean beginning, she’s going to be tough. Her stablemate, #3 Make It a Double (6/5) has finished second three times in a row, which is not easy to do. She actually drew clear in the stretch two races back, but got caught in the last few strides. She’s got the speed to be a contender, but I don’t know if I can bet a horse like her to win at likely low odds. #2 Netti Girl (3/1) has battled on the lead in her last few and faded. The shorter distance might help this speedster out. 

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

• 4-1-3-6
• #4 Ziggy Mon (5/2) has abundant early speed, but lost his chance to win a stakes at Mountaineer last out when he broke slowly. In the start before that, at this level at Pimlico, he battled on the lead, drew clear in the stretch, but got caught by Air Token. Transitioning to this speed-favoring track should help. Last year’s Maryland Million Sprint champion, #1 Karan’s Notion (3/1) makes his first start since March 13. He was a pure front-runner last year, but didn’t show quite as much early speed in his races earlier this year. We’ll see if the time off did him some good. #3 Youngest of Five (4/1) has been getting checks at this level, and closed strongly to lose by just half a length two races back. Can pick up some pieces and round out the exotics at a decent number.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7, ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 2-1A-4-9
• #2 Benandjoe (4/1) is the dominant speed from the inside. He got engaged in a very destructive speed duel at Delaware Park last out, and while he lost by 8 1/4 lengths, he did better than his dueling partner, who lost by 23 1/2 lengths. If he can get clear here, he’s gone. #1A Brutus (5/1) has consistently earned figures in the 80s and should rate just off the pace on the outside. The only downside is his draw: with the nine post and a short run into the first turn, Jevian Toledo will have to be aggressive. #4 Miami Mumbles (3/1) crushed the field at this level at Pimlico last out, and gets to stay here thanks to the optional claiming tag. He benefited from being closer to the pace than usual last out, and it would be wise of Yomar Ortiz to employ the same strategy here. 
• RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

• 4-3-2-1
• #4 Maestria (7/5) cruised to victory last out at Delaware Park, stalking the pace and storming home by 4 1/2 lengths. A repeat of that wins here, and sets her up for a potential stakes appearance next out. #3 Buff My Boots (3/1) also broke her maiden impressively, albeit against softer at Pimlico. Looks for a rebound off a dull showing at Colonial Downs last out. #2 Toy Tiger (6/1) went gate-to-wire at first asking at Charles Town last out, and now stretches out from 4 1/2 furlongs. I have to imagine speed will be the name of her game. 
• RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

• 4-7-2-3
• #4 Expect the Sunrise (4/1) goes third off the layoff and has early speed, which should be a winning combination in this group. #7 Notion Interruptus (5/1) showed speed in her dirt sprint debut, but was wide and faded after pressing the pace. Will look to work out a better trip here and will benefit from the weight break. #2 Hashtag Lucky (6/5) takes a big drop from the $40,000 level and hasn’t run worse than a 71 in her last three starts. 

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