Laurel Park picks and ponderings September 30, 2021

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $2,555 Super High 5 — $837 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 3-5-10-1 (DIRT: 8-10-4-5)
• Looking at sunny skies to begin the 9-race card and the first day of the new racing week. #3 Watch Me Disappear (6/1) ran a big race on debut last out, closing from far out of it after lagging behind in the early stages. She may need to show more early speed, but the promise is there. #5 Miss Bosconovitch (6/1) exits the same race as Watch Me Disappear. She sat the trip and raced evenly in the stretch, not losing ground but not really gaining any, either. It was her first grass start and and first race in two months, so maybe she’ll improve here. #10 Who Knows What (7/2) gets a cutback in distance after two good tries going long at Colonial Downs, including a performance last out where she led in the stretch only to flatten out late. The key here will be to time the move right. 

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

5-7-9-1

#5 Awfully Foxy (7/2) ran back-to-back brisnet figures in the 70s in her last wo starts. She’s the only horse in the field who can say that. She was claimed out of her last start by Damon Dilodovico on February 12, and promptly went to the sidelines. This’ll be her first start since then, after working steadily since August. Gets the nod in an inconsistent bunch. #7 Supreme Blessing (9/2) cleared her n/w2L condition last out in a hard-fought performance on the lead. That was the most early speed she’s shown in a while; usually she just rates and pounces. #9 Sacred Lady (5/1) has been collecting plenty of placings at this level with a recent string of figures in the upper-60s. I’m not sure if she has enough early speed to win this one, but she’s definitely a viable exotics candidate. 

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 13-7-1-8 (DRT: 8-11-13-1)
• #13 Still My Babe (5/2) will have to draw in off the also-eligible list to race here, but is a serious threat if she does so. She ran a big figure of 80 last out when finishing second in a maiden race at Saratoga. The post shouldn’t be much of a deterrent, as she was wide all the way last out but still ran on well. #7 Holy Berries (9/2) was purchased for $110,000 in June and now debuts for West Point and George Weaver. She’s been based in New York, but will ship to Maryland in search of some Maryland-bred bonus money. West Point did that last year with Jaxon Traveler, and it worked out quite well. #1 Qualy (6/1) goes first out for Justin Nixon after some good workouts, including a drill on grass. She might want to go longer but this is a good stepping stone. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 7-9-5-2
• #7 Golazo (7/2) ran a gigantic race to clear his n/w3L condition last out, making up eleven lengths with a long, steady move that was timed perfectly. Trainer Mario Serey is off to a fast start at the meet. His horses have hit the board ten times from eleven starts. #9 Threethehardway (6/1) was in good form last winter, with steady figures in the mid-70s, but hasn’t quite found that form in two starts since January 18. Last out, he had a tough trip against better over a very sloppy track and was a non-factor. He should find things more to his liking here. #5 Manicomio (9/5) profiles as the main early speed and will be dangerous if left alone on the front end. 

RACE 5 – ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 6-3-1-8 (DIRT: 10-6-3-2)
• #6 Golden Can (8/5) went gate-to-wire against an open field at this condition two weeks ago, earning a career-best mark of 92 in the process. She won twice earlier in the year at Pimlico, rating on or near the lead both times. Her speed will prove dangerous again. #3 Polished Gal (5/1) closed to get second at this level two races back, but was no match for Golden Can’s speed las tout after some traffic trouble. I don’t know if she’s fast enough to catch Golden Can, but she can at least close for the exacta. #1 Miranda’s Diamond (10/1) just held on to break her maiden last out, in her first start off a ten-week break. Races second off the layoff for Ben Perkins, who is 21% with that angle. 

RACE 6:ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 5-10-1-11 (DIRT: 3-2-6-11)
• #5 Line Dancing (3/1) was graded stakes-placed earlier in the campaign, and was most recently a solid-closing fifth in the Virginia Oaks. She’s run at least an 85 three times in her last four starts, and is the only one in the field who can consistently do that. #10 Lisheen (7/2) broke her maiden three back at Saratoga with a bold rally from well behind. With the exception of Line Dancing, this is likely an easier field than the ones she saw at this condition at Saratoga and Colonial Downs. #1 Volador (15/1) goes first off the claim for Hugh McMahon after an impressive runner-up finish at Colonial last out. This is a bit of a class shock for her, but she’s got the figures to make an impact at a price. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 4-3-2-9
• #4 Kymmies Chardonnay (5/2) got some action in her debut, going off at 9/2. She ran well, setting the pace while racing wide and not giving way until the last eighth. She turned in a sharp bullet workout since that race and should fire a big one for Brittany Russell. #3 She Is Wisky (9/2) outfinished Kymmies Chardonnay in her debut, closing from off the fast pace to get third. Has every right to move forward second time out. #2 Preparefortakeoff (8/1) is the most experience horse in the race, with this being her fourth start. She’s pressed the pace every time and hung around late for a minor share, which the likeliest story to unfold here. 
• RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
• 9-7-2-6 (DIRT: 5-1-6-9)
• #9 Robin Sparkles (6/5) ships to Maryland for the first time after an impressive run in New York. She has blazing early speed, and used it to almost wire the field twice in stakes company at Saratoga. She should run them off their feet here. #7 Can the Queen (5/1) has good tactical speed, and will likely try to sit off the leader and pounce. She won the Sensible Lady Turf Dash last out with a career-best grass mark of 88 last out, with that kind of trip. #2 Spun Glass (9/2) has been improving since returning from a brief rest in early July, and put it all together with a desperate win over n/w2x types last out. Will roll late and try to get a piece of the exotics. 
• RACE 9: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 5-6-9-2 (DIRT: 4-1-9-6)
• #5 Sally’s Mustang (5/2) made her first start against winners last out, and finished third after perhaps waiting a bit too long to get going. She broke her maiden impressively two back with a well-timed move. #6 Indian Nichols (9/2) ran figures of 75 and 80 in her last two races, and looks for a rebound after a visually dull race las tout. #9 Amplio Esquema (6/1) finally broke her maiden in her twelfth try last out. Doesn’t have much early speed to speak of but can roll late. The big question is if she’ll leave herself too much to do. 

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