Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 1, 2021

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $3,856 Super High 5 — $227 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 5-4-10-8
• We’ll have beautiful weather for today’s 9-race card as we kick off the month of October. #5 Strolled on By (4/1) ran a very respectable figure of 84 in his last start. It wasn’t a visually impressive race, as he got stuck behind a slow pace and didn’t have a chance to show much as a result. He drops in class and tries this level for the first time. #4 Grecian Pharoah (7/2) broke his maiden in an off-the-grass race two starts back, then was a hard-charging second in his first start at the level last out. He’s really moved forward in his last few grass races, with some great late pace figures. #10 Samui Sunset (6/1) races third off the layoff and was a sharp third in his second race off the break. Feargal Lynch gets the mount for the first time; he’s off to a great start at the meet. 

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

2-4-3-5

 #2 Miss Tap Dance (9/5) races for the dominant Jamie Ness/Jaime Rodriguez trainer/jockey combo. She tends to show speed and back up in the stretch, but she’s getting a much-needed cutback in distance after some two-turn tries. She’s won around two turns before, but as she’s honed her speed, she looks better suited to one-turn races. #4 Behind the Couch (2/1) has good tactical speed and just missed at this level last out at Timonium. She should chase Miss Tap Dance around the track and round out the exacta. #3 Factorintheheat (12/1) goes second off the layoff. Last out, she made her first start in more than seven months, and was third after a wide trip. Won against gems of a slightly lesser water two races back with a strong figure of 80. Can hit the board at a decent price, making her a good horse to use in exactas and trifectas. 

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 7-5-3-4
• It’s hard to find a more impressive worktab than the one sported by #7 Dathoss (5/2). Owned and bred by Mattress Mack, every single one of his workouts has been a bullet drill. If he’s as good at racing as he is at working out, he’s going to look like a rocket ship out there. #5 Von Hoff (2/1) goes second time out for Brittany Russell, after a traffic-filled fourth-place finish on debut. Might need to improve a few points to win this one, but if he does, he’ll be very tough. #3 Line Change (9/2) is a Godolphin firster for Mike Stidham, who has also been working like a monster at Fair Hill. Interested to see what kind of money he gets.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 6-9-10-12
• There were a few chances to pay off the jackpot pick 6 yesterday, but none of those horses won. As such, we’ll have a carryover of over $2,000 tomorrow. #6 Shelly Island (4/1) has finished second in each of his two starts at this condition. He closed into a fairly mild pace last out, and will look for a slightly faster tempo here. If he gets it, his closing kick will be even more powerful. #9 Justwaveandsmile (7/2) made a bold move last out in spite of some traffic trouble, and ended up third. Should get the trip and will be a factor with clearer sailing. #10 Hushed Hijinks (4/1) cleared his n/w2L condition last out in an impressive performance. Most of his n/w2L tries came against better horses than the horses at that condition around these parts, so I wouldn’t hold his losses at that level against him. He’s one of two in here who has never lost at this level. 

RACE 5- CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 3-2-7-4
• #3 Tremendous (5/2) cruised on the lead to break his maiden at third asking last out. Shouldn’t have much trouble getting to the front end here, and from there he should leave the others reeling. #2 Don’t Dare Me (10/1) has gone off at 6/5 or lower in six straight races, a streak that will be snapped here. He’s come in second five times in nine career starts, including his last start, when he sat the trip and looked clear in the stretch only to wilt. Will rate off Tremendous and could hang around for a piece at a price. #7 Replicant (9/2) goes first off the claim for Ferris Allen and just missed in his first try against winners last out after stalking the pace.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 16-1-13-11
• #16 Zola B (4/1) is one of the few in the field with established grass form. She ran figures in the upper 70s consistently earlier in her career, and has been rounding into form since returning from a seven-month layoff two races back. She broke awkwardly both times; will have a big chance if she gets away cleanly. #1 El Bochinche (7/2) was fourth in her lone start to date, a maiden claiming race at Timonium where she moved up after a slow start and raced evenly. Gets a surface switch and adds lasix. #13 Mosler’s Touch (9/2) is the fastest horse in the race early on and may prove tough to catch on the pace. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 5-6-1-2
• #5 Cry No More (8/5) ran a huge race at this level two starts back, setting the early pace, including a brutal second quarter, and fighting on until late. Will once again try to steal away on the front end. #6 Ziggy Mon (9/5) has a very similar running style as Cry No More. He won at this level at Monmouth Park in late May, stalking the early pace, pouring on the pressure, and drawing off to victory. He’ll try to employ a similar strategy here. #1 Stone Courageous (8/1) has the best closing kick in the race but hasn’t raced since February 25. He’ll take full advantage if the aforementioned two burn each other out. 
• RACE 8:MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 3-8-7-9
• #3 Trust Daddy (4/1) was rushed up after a bad break on debut, but battled gamely in the stretch and only yielded late. Tries grass for the first time for trainer Jerry O’Dwyer, who is 14% first time on the lawn. #8 Radical Right (7/2) was the slight favorite in his grass debut, and made a mild bid while not changing leads late. Ran a very respectable figure of 76 in that spot. #7 Zatzip (6/1) goes first out for Graham Motion, who puts Feargal Lynch up. Motion isn’t great with first-timers, but he’s caught a fairly soft field on debut and should take some play. 
• RACE 9: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

• 2-8-5-6
• #2 Solomonic (12/1) doesn’t have much grass experience, but he has early speed in a field largely devoid of pace. Kevin Gomez must be aggressive with him early, but if he can get away early, he could prove tough to catch at a price. #8 Lucky Ramsey (5/1) was in the midst of what might have been a winning move last out against similar when he was forced to check and lost precious ground. Otherwise, he has a strong closing rally that has gotten him plenty of checks as of late. #5 Mohkeef (5/2) takes a big drop in class from the n/w2x level. While he also has a powerful closing kick, he has even less early speed, and finds himself in a paceless race. If anyone can close off of it, though, it’s him.

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