Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 3, 2021

Dirty. Photo by Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,962 Super High 5 –$1,147 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP,  5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 8-6-2-3
• The first race on today’s card is the first of five grass races on today’s program. Speed has not been doing that well on grass lately, so keep that in mind when you handicap. #8 Smitten Enough (3/1) broke his maiden in a game effort three back at Pimlico, and has come close in two tries at the level at Delaware Park while showing good tactical speed. His  style looks perfect for a race like this. #6 Bloodprof (9/2) has gotten action against similar at tracks all over the mid-Atlantic, but has not been able to get the job done. He made only mild ground last out, but this a little bit softer field, so maybe he’ll be able to punch on a bit better. Adds blinkers as well. #2 Lifespan (6/1) woke up when switched to the grass last out and will be rolling late at a price. 

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 1-5-2-3
• #1 Love Dust (4/1) closed furiously in each of her last two starts, but was done in by a slow break both times. She might be fast enough late to win anyway, but it would be nice if she learned how to break. #5 Simple Sugar (9/2) makes her first start since late October and drops for a career-low tag. She earned a brisnet figure of 66 in her dirt debut last fall at Belmont Park, stalking the pace and fading after racing wide. Trainer James Chapman is 21% with horses coming off a 90+ day layoff. #2 Birthday Wish (4/1) closed ground sharply on debut on grass with a very respectable 66. The big question, of course, is if she can transfer that form to dirt. 

RACE 3: CLAIMING $16,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

• 9-11-1-5
• #9 Resident Liberal (5/1) has hit the board in his last start at the level, but hasn’t quite been able to put it all together and actually pass his rivals. However, his recent figures have improved dramatically. He’s now consistently running in the 70s, which he was previously unable to do. #11 Daddy’s Cozy (10/1) ran in the 80s pretty consistently last year, but has not been able to put together a consistent racing schedule this year. He tried a two-mile race at Shawan Downs last out, and couldn’t get the distance and was pulled up. Runs in a more normal race here and goes third off the layoff. #1 Prince of Caps (7/2) cleared his n/w2L condition last out with a good stalking trip, and will likely get another ideal setup just off the leaders on the rail. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

• 4-6-1-10
• This race is a matter of who doesn’t want to win the least. #4 C Two (8/1) ran a career-best figure of 61 last out, representing dramatic improvement in her first race in almost three months. Gets a jockey upgrade to Charlie Marquez. #6 Can I Ever (20/1) ran a 64 two races back in her first start off a six-month break, then was forced to check sharply last out and didn’t have much of a chance thereafter. Worth a shot in a race like this. #1 Windrush Karma (8/5) will almost certainly be an underlay, just by the nature of the race. However, she’s never run worse than a 66 in three career starts and has speed from the inside. She’s as good a horse as any to get Johan Rosado off the schneid. 

RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 4-5-2-7
• #4 Tidal Waters (3/1) ran a big race on the lead two races back at Colonial Downs, then chased the leaders and faded last out. Adds blinkers for Mike Trombetta and will be on the pace once again. #5 Island Philo (5/1) has a similar profile as Tidal Waters, having raced big at Colonial two starts back and coming in here off a dull last-out performance. She’s managed to save ground in her recent races but might get hung wide here. #2 Zola B (6/1) goes third off a long layoff and improved last out despite a tough trip.

RACE 6: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

• 2-7-9-3
• #2 Color Crush (9/2) was an impressive winner at this level last out, coming from behind to win with a four-wide sweep on the turn. She’s improved in every one of her grass starts, most recently running an 83. #7 My Candy Girl (4/1) was claimed out of her last start at Saratoga by Brittany Russell, who is 24% first off the claim. She tends to stalk and pounce on the pacesetters, a style that should play well on this track. #9 Beam of Light (6/1) ran in the upper 70s pretty steadily last year, and now makes her second start since February 18. Will contend at a price if she can find her best form. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $32,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

• 4-3-2-1
• Both the morning line favorites, #2 Buff My Boots (7/5) and #3 Sparkle Sprinkle (6/5) are pure speedsters who will almost certainly be gunning for the lead. Something’s going to have to give between those two. If they end up falling apart from battling each other, #4 Click to Confirm (6/1) broke her maiden by rating off the leaders and wearing them down in the stretch. The pace could be very fast here, and if Click to Confirm runs back to her debut, she could well spring the upset.

RACE 8: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

 13-15-10-12

• #13 Love My Cat (6/1) was no match for a runaway winner last out, but managed to outkick the others and get up for second, with a very respectable figure of 65. Has no early speed to speak of, but is worth a shot at her likely price. #15 Wildcat (10/1) also made good ground in her last start, as she reacclimates to flat racing following some steeplechase tries. She ran in the 70s in her last two races, representing dramatic improvement from her flat starts in 2019. #10 Monster Rising (6/1) was outkicked by Love My Cat last out, but still has consistent figures in the 60s and was competitive against better a few starts back.

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