Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 22, 2021

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $18,002 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 4-3-6-5
• It’s Maryland Million eve! We’ve got 10 races on the program. #4 Petion Lass (3/1) has raced just twice this year, but both were great performances. She ran a brisnet figure of 79 in victory in her first start of the season, which was her first race off a six-month layoff, then recovered from a very bad break and closed strongly next out. 5 1/2 furlongs might be a bit too short for her closing style, but she should at least make it interesting. #3 Lady Magica (9/5) switches back to dirt for Jamie Ness and looms as the main early speed. I don’t think her ceiling is as high on dirt as it is on grass, but she still generally runs figures in the mid-70s. #6 Parched Ghost (5/1) broke awkwardly and got stuck behind a very slow pace, but closed well and got third. The pace should be more honest here. 

RACE 2: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/2 MILES (GRASS)

3-4-5-6

 I love races like this: a grass marathon with a lot of hard knockers and a full field. #3 King of Spades (5/1) ran an impressive figure of 87 when stretching out to 1 3/8 miles at Monmouth Park last out. Kelly Breen is very sharp with his shippers to Maryland, with a 3-for-7 record at the meet. #4 Mohkeef (7/2) has similar figures at King of Spades. His only dull race as of late came when facing much better in the Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware Park. He won his last start at this level in May. The combination of class relief and the three-turn distance looks like a perfect storm. #5 King Bubble (5/2) won twice in a row at this level earlier in the year, now stretches back out to 1 1/2 miles. He won going ten furlongs and finished fourth at this distance in Europe a while ago. 

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 1-4-8-2
• #1 Canoodle (5/2) closed strongly to get third on debut in a similar field. I don’t think you’ll get 17/1 on her again, but she’s nonetheless a candidate to take a big step forward. #4 Rona (8/1) is at her best in dirt sprints, consistently running figures in the upper 60s and low 70s. The 0-for-20 record is a bit of a cause for concern, however. #8 Startwithabang (3/1) finished second behind stakes winner Out of Sorts in her debut, which was more than a year ago. Adds lasix and gets to waive the claiming price. Works for Lacey Gaudet have been steady and sharp, but taking her with a grain of salt here.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

• 3-4-5-8
• #3 Coral Summer (4/1) broke her maiden three starts back at Timonium, then raced evenly in each of her two starts at this level with figures in the 60s. She made good ground in the last eighth while racing on the rail last out. #4 Areemaa (5/2) was claimed out of her last start at Churchill Downs by Anthony Farrior, who brings her to the mid-Atlantic for the first time. She didn’t show much against better n/w2L foes last out, but ran figures in the 70s earlier in the year while going two turns. #5 Fearless Lassie (7/2) got stuck in some traffic last out but closed well when clear to lose by two lengths. She went off at 5/2 last out ran an excellent race; if you still believe, you’ll get a better price.

RACE 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 5-14-2-3
• #5 Guapa Chica (4/1) made a bold, wide move last out, but flattened out. She makes her third dirt start off the layoff here, and gets Xavier Perez aboard for the first time. #14 Hot to Party (9/2) has gone off as the favorite in her last two tries against similar, and hung on to hit the board after chasing the pace. Might get hung wide from the far outside post, but is still in top form and will be a factor in the exotics, at least. #2 Expect the Sunrise (5/2) adds blinkers and takes a career-low drop in class. She should enjoy a great trip just off the pace on the inside. 

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 1 MILE (GRASS)

• 6-3-10-4
• #6 Johnny Sack (5/1) made his grass debut against an open n/w1x field at Saratoga last out, and made mild ground to get seventh with a decent figure of 86. Jeremiah Englehart is a perfect 2-for-2 with his shippers to Laurel this meet. #3 Broker’s Reward (7/2) almost wired a field just like this one last out, and once again profiles as the main early speed. #10 Prince Pere (4/1) stretches out around two turns after some near-misses around one turn. He should rate right off the pace on the outside and pounce.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

• 5-8-7-2
• #5 Stay In (6/1) broke his maiden in impressive style at Penn National in February, with a figure of 80. He must have exited that race with some problems, as a claim on him was voided, and he did not return to the worktab until late August. This’ll be his first start against winners, and will be a serious factor if he can bounce back first off the bench. #8 Fore on Seven (5/1) also broke his maiden last out, doing so in gate-to-wire style despite consistent pace pressure. He ran a 74 in that race, six points below the last-out mark of Stay In, but is more recently raced. #7 American Piper (6/1) also has early speed and goes second off the layoff for Kieron Magee. 
• RACE 8: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS
• 5-6-7-2
• #5 Outkissed (7/5) closed strongly to get second on debut, beaten just half a length with a figure of 84. That gives him a seven-point edge over everyone else in the field. Not many others who have experience have shown much, leaving the race potentially ripe for a firster. #6 Caminero (6/1) and #7 Oskee Wow Wow (6/1) will make their debuts here for Mike Trombetta and Jerry O’Dwyer, respectively. They’ve both been working well for stables that can connect with their first-time starters. Watching the board with both. 
• RACE 9: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 1-6-10-12
• #1 Charmed (5/2) cleared his n/w1x condition at Monmouth in his most recent start, talking the pace and drawing away impressively with a career-best mark of 90. The second-place finisher in that race, High Limit Room, won next out at the Meadowlands. #6 Rohrbacher (6/1) is also coming off a career-best race, having earned a 94 at this level last out in a second-place effort. Cuts back around one turn for the first time in a while. #10 War Stroll (10/1) has run in the 80s most of the year, but declined when he stepped up in class to the Rainbow Heir Stakes last out. He’ll make his first start for Jose Corrales. 

RACE 10: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

• 7-4-5-2
• #7 Memphis Mafia (3/1) makes her first start since June 4. She crushed the field in her last start over this track, breaking her maiden by seven lengths with a career-top figure of 80. This’ll be her first start at this level. #4 Sunshineanrainbows (6/1) broke her maiden at second asking last out, with a much-improved mark of 75. She’ll rate just off the pace. #5 Mending (8/1) goes first off the claim for Anthony Farrior and consistently runs in the mid-70s. She ran a big race against n/w2L claimers last out at Churchill Downs, lasting after steady pace pressure.

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