Laurel Park picks and ponderings October 28, 2021

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $3,118 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 4-10-7-6 (DIRT: 6-2-5-1)
• Note that, starting today, the first race is at 12:25 PM, fifteen minutes earlier than before. #4 Welshman (3/1) made his first start for Jack Fisher last out in his local debut. He raced well, stalking the pace and drawing clear before fading late. He consistently runs brisnet figures in the 70s; he declined a bit to a 69 last out but that should still be good enough to win. #10 Spanish Sea (15/1) raced wide on both turns last out but still closed for third while improving seven points to a 67. Steps up from the $25,000 level put still profiles as a contender. #7 Emphasize (6/1) chased the pace last out in a race where the top two spurted ten lengths clear from the others. He ran on well late to earn a 71, just missing his lifetime top. Should have plenty of late punch here. 

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

2-3-4-6

Claudio Gonzalez, who started off the meet slow (by his standards), has been heating up lately. He sends out two in here; I’ll give the edge to #2 Rookie Salsa (3/1). He was hung wide against slightly tougher last out, but held on for third. He declined just a bit in that race, but steadily runs figures in the mid-80s, which should be enough to win this one. #3 W W Springtime (4/1) battled all the way with a rival on his inside, who drew off and defeated him by 1 3/4 lengths. It was a valiant effort all the same, and now he’ll get to control the pace from the inside. #4 Stroll Smokin (3/1) chased that duel last out but couldn’t get by and was third. Kieron Magee claimed him out of that race, and will try to restore him to his form earlier in the year, when he was consistently running in the upper 80s. 

RACE 3: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 9-8-5-11 (DIRT: 9-6-7-8)
• Another recent shipper from New York for Jack Fisher, #9 Mystical Man (3/1) closed well at this level last out as the favorite. He just missed behind English Tavern, who came back to finish second in the Claiming Crown Emerald qualifier next out. This one’s got the best last-out figure in the race, with a 91, and should improve second off the layoff. #8 American d’Oro (9/2) exits the same race and finished third, improving to a 90 with a slow, methodical rally. He just missed at this level two starts back, in a race conducted over yielding grass. Should this race stay on, the course will likely have moisture in it as well. Jevian Toledo gets the mount back. #5 Fermat (12/1) closed furiously to get up against starter optional claiming types last out, and could upset the exotics at a good number.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 9-7-4-1
• This race features lots of speed-and-fade types. None of them seem to be able to last any sort of distance, even the 5 1/2 furlongs they’ll see today. As such, I’ll try one of the first-time starters, #9 Lottaclass Lilsass (12/1). She’s going first out for Anthony Aguirre Jr, and has an improving, if brief, worktab. Charlie Marquez, who won the Maryland Million Nursery, is named to ride. If she gets any action off her morning line, she’s worth a play. #7 Nobody’s Secret (3/1) set the pace in her dirt debut at Ellis Park last out. She got some time off since that race; this’ll be her first outing since August 21. Works at Delaware Park have been promising. Should set the pace, and we’ll see what happens from there. #4 I’m a Lil Bossy (5/2) ran a big race in her first start at the level last out. She got involved in a three-way tussle for the lead and outfinished her two dueling partners by 10+ lengths. Will likely encounter pace pressure again, but at least she’s shown she can hang around a little bit.

RACE 5 – STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)

• 11-8-2-3 (DIRT: 3-5-11-12)
• It took thirteen tries, but #11 The Angry Man (5/2) finally broke his maiden last out on dirt, drawing off to a 5 1/2-length win over the main track here. He hasn’t run worse than a 76 in his last five races, and that number would probably be good enough to win. Having Jamie Ness as the trainer doesn’t hurt. #8 Lightning Rod (9/2) has rated right off the pace and flattened out in his last few races, although he lost by less than a length against better two races back. He’ll be a factor on the pace here. #2 Antipoison (4/1) held off Lightning Rod in that same race, and will likely set the pace from the inside.
• RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS
• 9-8-2-3
• Although #9 Crying for More (5/1) ran a very solid 72 in a third-place finish at this level last out, it wasn’t a visually impressive race. He was going around two turns that day, and it looks as if he’s better off around one turn. That’s what he gets here. #8 Tyreek (7/2) goes second off the bench for Damon Dilodovico, who is 24% with such horses. This one stumbled and made up ground to get second last out, in his first start at the level. #2 Voltamour (5/2) has not lost against winners on dirt, one of only two horses in the field who can say that. Will likely sit the dream trip rating off the leaders on the rail.

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

• 15-7-9-3 (DIRT: 10-12-5-1)
• #15 Payntdembluesaway (5/2) went off as the favorite last out in the Lightning City Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. She dueled through brutal fractions and held on to fourth, snapping a six-race winning streak in the process. That race must have taken a lot out of her, as she hasn’t raced since then. She was scheduled to return at Delaware on October 9, but that race was washed off the grass. The draw isn’t ideal, but she’s got the speed and the class, and will be tough as long as there isn’t too much rust. #7 Whispurring Kitten (5/1) got up to win at this level two races back, and narrowly missed after a similar trip last out. She loves this grass course; she’s a neck away from three consecutive wins on this surface. #9 Ellanation (10/1) set the pace and gave way late two back, then came from just off the pace and just missed last out. Goes third off a brief layoff for Mike Trombetta, who is closing in on 2,000 career wins. 
• RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
• 7-5-2-6
• #7 Friendly Fella (3/1) never got comfortable last out and was no factor. He was very impressive prior to that, with back-to-back figures in the 90s in wins at Monmouth Park. Should get an ideal trip just off the leaders. The $2.5 million man, #5 Lidstrom (7/2), broke his maiden going away last out, with a career-best mark of 82. Everyone else in the race has lost against winners multiple times except for him. #2 Big Venezuela (7/2) has abundant early speed and an ideal post from which to use it. He’s a serious threat to take them gate-to-wire.
• RACE 9: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

• 5-4-7-6 (DIRT: 12-1-3-13)
• #5 Indian Nichols (7/2) won at the $32,000 level last out, and has run a career-best figure in two of her last three races. Angel Suarez keeps the mount after last time. #4 My Candy Girl (3/1) stumbled badly last out and didn’t factor at all. However, she ran in the 80s in her two other races this year, and goes second off the claim for Brittany Russell. #7 Color Crush (5/1) was well-backed at this level last out but was blocked in traffic and got compromised. Won against $32,000 two back with a driving rally. 

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