Laurel Park picks and ponderings November 20, 2021

Horses round the turn at Laurel Park. Photo: Allison Janezic.

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

ANALYSIS

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

• 8-5-3-10
• Nine races are on tap on what should be a picturesque Saturday for racing at Laurel. #8 Rebel Victory (6/1) improved sharply in his second career start, running a brisnet figure of 73 in a third-place finish against better. In marked contrast from his debut, he set the early pace and held on until the last eighth. He’ll try to take them gate-to-wire again. #5 Mr Mosley (8/1) adds blinkers and drops to a career-low level for Mike Trombetta. He made his first start off a long layoff last out on grass, and showed some speed before fading. Could run a big one at decent odds. #3 Tipyourhattothat (7/2) has come close several times against slightly better, with five runner-up finishes from twelve starts. He’ll also be close to the early pace. This’ll be his first start at this condition. 

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

2-5-3-7

#2 Shoulda Had It (7/2) was claimed out of his last start by Ferris Allen. He ran in the 80s pretty consistently at Delaware Park over the summer, but declined to a 72 in his final start of the meet. This stalker got a pace to run into that day, but still couldn’t do much. In contrast, he closed well into slow paces in several of his prior starts. We’ll see if he can bounce back here. #5 My Candy Biz (7/2) didn’t show any of his customary speed last out, but rallied well to get fourth with a career-best mark of 81. Stretches back out around two turns and will be a threat if he gets back to his speedy ways. #3 Excalibur (9/2) was second in his mid-Atlantic debut at Charles Town, after several even performances at this level at Gulfstream Park. This should be a bit easier than the foes he faced in Florida. 

RACE 3: CLAIMING $25,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS

• 1-5-7-6

• #1 Happybirthdaycorey (2/1) broke her maiden in very impressive fashion on debut, coming from behind to win going away with a figure of 67. She’s one of three who has never lost against winners, the other two being #5 Still Doing Time (8/1) and #7 Sweet Talia (5/1). The former adds blinkers for her first start off the claim by Bruno Tessore, who is 27% with his recent claims. She’s a threat to take them gate-to-wire. The latter has improved her figure in each of her three starts and showed tenacity in a stretch duel last out.

ANALYSIS

RACE 4: CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 3-6-5-1

• After three middling performances, #3 Crabs N Beer (2/1) broke through for an impressive maiden-breaking win last out. He took control early, opened up a long lead, and drew off to crush a maiden claiming field by almost ten lengths with a figure of 80. He may encounter some more pace pressure here, but if he can get to the top early, he’s got a chance. Two contenders in here race first off the claim. The #6 Stronger Than Dex (5/2) was taken out of his last start by Claudio Gonzalez, where he rated off the pace and won going away. With the expected speed in here, he could end up getting a great trip. #5 Heavenly Trip (9/2) was claimed out of his maiden win by Richard Sillaman. This gelding lasted through fast fractions and held on with a career-best mark of 72. He can show speed or rate just off the lead.

RACE 5 – CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 6-2-11-4
• #6 Noble Endeavor (7/2) went gate-to-wire last out at Parx after several speed-and-fade tries. Will be a major player on the front end and will try to build off his big last race. #2 Pascal Chant (3/1) goes third off a brief layoff and gets back to dirt after a disappointing grass try. He’s run at least in 77 in all but one of his last eight dirt tries. Would be well-advised to rate just off the pace, rather than try and engage the leaders. #11 Championship Alley (7/2) has improved steadily in his last few starts and will be on or near the lead. He’s won against similar in each of his last two dirt races. 

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

• 1-13-9-12

• Taking a shot against favored Mama G’s Wish, who has burned a lot of money at low odds lately. #1 Derby Julep (8/1) dropped to this level for the first time last out, and got caught up in a tough pace battle. She consistently runs in the upper 50s and low 60s, and would be better served coming from off the pace. #13 Market of Socks (3/1) debuts for Brittany Russell, which automatically makes her dangerous, but did not get an ideal draw for her first start. We’ll see how the board reacts to her. #9 Speak Your Mind (30/1) made her debut in a $16,000 maiden claiming race, and hung in gamely after a wide trip. Could shake up the exotics at, in all likelihood, long odds. 

ANALYSIS

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

• 8-9-7-5
• #8 American Rule (4/1) has won his last two starts by a combined 10 1/4 lengths, and ships down from New York for Jeremiah Englehart, who is very sharp with shippers to Maryland. He’s the only one in the field who has run at least an 87 in each of his last two dirt races. #9 The Poser (4/1) raced wide on a rail-favoring track in the Maryland Million Classic, and surged on to get third. He’s drawn to the outside again, but he likes this track and gets to race at his preferred distance. #7 Rohrbacher (6/1) makes his second recent start on dirt. He got back to this surface last out after numerous grass tries and showed speed before flattening out. He’ll try to take them gate-to-wire here.
• RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
• 3-7-15-10 (DIRT: 8-5-6-12)
• If you take out her start two back when she stumbled and lost all chance, #3 My Candy Girl (4/1) hasn’t run a bad race lately. She stalked the pace and drew off to win a starter optional claiming race going away last out, with a figure of 89. Russell and Jevian Toledo team up once again here. #7 Vibrancy (6/1) has just missed in her last two races at this level, including a big four-wide move from behind last out. She’s improved in all four of her grass starts. #15 Beckon (10/1) has early speed in a race without much high-quality pace. If she can get to the front, she can control the tempo and leave them reeling at a price. 
• RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

• 3-1-6-9
• #3 Callyourightback (7/2) was a solid-closing second on debut, but did nothing when stretching out around two turns last out. Cutting back around one turn should help. #1 Graywing (5/1) makes his first start since February 15. He opened up a long early lead on debut and faded. He’s been working well since early October and adds lasix for Lacey Gaudet. #6 Katie’s Notion (10/1) goes second off a long break, and ran a career-best mark of 63 last out after showing speed for the first time. 

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