LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: AUGUst 5, 2022

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $21,934 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

2-4-5-3

Nine races on today’s card, nine days left in the 2022 Laurel summer season. #2 Grand Manner (9-2) was no match for odds-on Brittany Russell trainee Frightland in his last start, but he nonetheless held on well for second after setting the early pace. There’s some speed to his inside in Take Charge Too, but if he gets to the front he’ll have enough left late to hold off that rival. #4 General Strike (9-5) will also be a pace factor. In his last three starts at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park, he dueled through fast fractions but held on to finish in the top four each time. Last out, he outfinished his dueling partner by 2 1/4 lengths. The horse he dueled with three starts back, Mean Jakey, won at Oaklawn that day and recently won a first-level allowance race at Ellis Park. Anthony Farrior races General Strike first off the claim. #5 One America (3-1) gets back to dirt for Claudio Gonzalez, in his second start off the claim. He has tactical speed and is lightly-raced.

RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

4-5-9-3

This is a tough race to figure. #4 Dundalk (2-1) is the morning line favorite, and if you didn’t see the dates in his running lines, you’d think that was a gift. He’s taking a big drop in class from first-level allowance races at Gulfstream Park, and is a proven front-runner in a race without any early speed. In normal circumstances, he looks like he’ll be able to waltz on the lead as an odds-on favorite. The catch? He hasn’t raced in 16 1/2 months. He’s had three workouts since late June, all of which have been solid, and he’s making his first start for trainer Kenny Cox. I know it’s a gamble taking low odds on a horse off such a long break, but unless he has absolutely nothing left in the tank, the pace circumstance of this race is so favorable he should be able to cruise first off the break. As alluded to above, even though he’ll go off as the favorite, the long layoff will keep his odds higher than they probably should be. #5 Atreyu (6-1) is also dropping in class, although it’s not as big a drop. He was last seen racing against $30,000 starter optional claiming types on this track, and flattened out after rating off the pace. Two starts back, he closed well for third off a fast pace, in his first start in almost five months. His brisnet figures fit with these and he should close for at least a piece. #9 Mohkeef (6-1) also has great closing speed, but lacks any early speed whatsoever. He won against similar in his first start of the year four back but generally leaves himself with too much to do.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

1-6-4-5

Last Thursday, Shug McGaughey won a maiden race on dirt with a heavily favored filly who made her last start in New York. He’s trying to copy the same formula with #1 Hop Picker (1-2). She’s never run a brisnet figure worse than 72 in three starts. While those marks haven’t been good enough to win in New York and Florida, they’re much the best in this race. She should have little trouble with these. The only one who’s a serious threat to beat her is #6 Smart Eulee (6-1). She ran a 74 in her second career start in February, and has hit the board in all four dirt starts while never running below a 66. She’ll have to improve a few points off her recent starts and hope Hop Picker doesn’t fire, but it’s not totally out of the question. #4 Lady Lookout (4-1) has worked well for her debut for Michael Matz, but will have to run a big race right out of the box to seriously contend with Hop Picker.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 1 MILE

2-1-3-5

#2 Welling (3-1) made his first start off a ten-month layoff last out, and might have been a little short. He stalked the pace and made a move, only to flatten out late and finish third. He ran an 83 in that race, a few points lower than what he had been averaging towards the end of last year. He should improve second off the bench. #1 Dream Big Dreams (2-1) hasn’t raced since a fifth-place finish in the Maryland Million Classic last October. He was uber-consistent as a 3-year-old last year, including a win in an open first-level race at Laurel in September. He’s likely to take lots of money as a Brittany Russell trainee, but she has not had a great summer meet. Unlike with Dundalk earlier in the day, I don’t think he’s that much better than his rivals that he can overcome the long layoff. #3 Rustys Gfivefifty (4-1) ran a game race in his last start at Laurel. He battled throughout and outfinished Welling, losing by a nose to next-out winner Mr. Thrifty. He didn’t do much at Delaware Park last out, but he’s at his best on this track.

RACE 5: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED, 1 MILE (GRASS)

8-3-5-1

#8 B Determined (3-1) has been rounding into career-best form as of late. He ran a career-best figure of 91 when he closed for third against better on Black-Eyed Susan day, and has just missed in his last two races. Last out, he rallied for second behind Audacious Quality, who won a second-level allowance optional claiming race on Sunday. #3 Samui Sunset (5-1) has also been steadily improving in his recent races and is usually somewhat forwardly placed compared to B Determined. Last out, he was no match for a free-wheeling favorite in the lead, but he outfinished the rest and got second. #5 Crabs N Beer (6-1) has shown some promise going long on grass, getting up for third in the James W. Murphy Stakes after a wide trip. He can contend at a price if he improves further.

RACE 6: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

5-3-2-4

#5 Otis Otis Otis (3-1) has won two of his last three starts at Parx, including an impressive four-length win last out after dueling on the early pace. Interesting to see Joezer Rangel, who usually rides at Parx but has not ridden this one, come in for the mount. #3 Rock and Fellers (9-2) hasn’t missed the board in his last six. This 9-year-old gelding always turns in an honest effort and will be a threat to Otis Otis Otis on the early lead. #2 Bernie’s on Fire (7-2) showed little first off a long layoff, but drew off to beat a weaker field handily next out, while improving his figure almost twenty points. He still needs to improve some more to contend with these, but I think he’ll take another step forward third off the bench.

RACE 7: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

11-7-9-2

#11 Remembering Wilbur (7-2) competed against starter optional claiming types in his grass debut last out, and showed mild kick in the stretch while beaten just 3 1/2 lengths. He’s dropping into a n/w2L claiming race for the first time and will contend if he maintains that form. Maddie Rowland is here just for this mount. #7 Password Protected (3-1) has gone off favored in his last two starts at this condition and has just missed both times. He’s gotten a good mid-pack trip both times and has rallied well, he just hasn’t gotten there. I’d be willing to give him another chance as long as the price isn’t too low. #9 Flash is Back (10-1) exits the same race as Password Protected. He made a promising stretch move in that race, only to flatten out. He still improved to a 72 second off the layoff and has to be respected at a price.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-7-1A-3

An excellent field of allowance sprinters has lined up for today’s feature. #6 Eastern Bay (9-2) has won twice at this level in his last three starts. This closer didn’t do quite as well as usual going 5 1/2 furlongs last out, losing to some of the horses he’ll face today. However, stretching back out to six furlongs should help the cause. #7 Alwaysinahurry (7-2) exits the same race as Eastern Bay. He closed well from off the pace and lost by a head to Factor It In, who was making his first start of the year. Alwaysinahurry improved to a 90 in that race, and his usual low-90s figure should be good enough to contend here. #1A Yodel E.A. Who (2-1) is my preferred half of the Jamie Ness entry. He’s run back-to-back career-best figures and lost a photo finish to Fortheluvofbourbon, a multiple stakes winner and four-time winner this year.

RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

4-5-8-7

#4 Like n’ Eagle (7-2) ran a career-best figure of 71 last out, closing sharply from the back to get third. In fact, she’s hit the board in her last three starts at this condition. Forest Boyce got aboard her for the first time last out and keeps the mount. #5 Please Marry Me (3-1) gets back to the grass after her race got washed off last time and will be a prominent pace factor. Her main challenge on the lead will come from #8 Bourbon Gypsy (7-2) who almost wired the field at 51-1 last out and was later disqualified from second for drifting out. It remains to be seen if she can handle the distance.

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