RACE 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

9-3-5-15

It rained here every day from Friday to Wednesday, so unsurprisingly, we’re off the grass today and tomorrow. This was one of four races originally carded for the lawn. At least they made the call yesterday afternoon. #9 Pharoahs Baby Girl (4-1) chased Lady Serenity in her debut, who snuck away to a loose lead and left the others reeling. However, Pharoahs Baby Girl outran the others and finished a strong second. She’s worked well since then and should run another good race second time out for Brittany Russell. Lots of other horses in the field have experience, but no one has showed much promise in their career. As such, I’m leaning towards two debuters to round out my top three. #3 Gold Star (6-1) has worked consistently for a while for Dale Capuano, including a strong four-furlong drill in 49 seconds on September 28. #5 Mo Martha (10-1) was entered for main-track-only, suggesting that Hugh McMahon thinks she has more aptitude on dirt. She’s been working at five furlongs for a while, so she might be looking towards longer distances in the future. This could be a good screw-tightener.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

7-2-5-1

The past performances suggest that this’ll be a two-horse race. #7 Lightfoot Miss (9-5) overcame a bad start and a tougher-than-usual setup to win at Delaware Park two starts back, with a career-best figure of 82. She almost matched that figure with a 76 last out, earned when chasing a gate-to-wire winner. There isn’t much speed in here, but if she can stay close to the pace she has a good shot. #2 Appalachianheights (2-1) has improved her figure in each of her last three starts, including wins in her last two races. She’s been close to the pace in her last few and could find herself on the lead if Lauralea Glaser is aggressive enough. #5 Sheknowsthedrill (8-1) is her biggest threat on the potential early lead. This one’s vied for the lead while wide in her last few, and might try to cross to the rail and the lead.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

7-1-9-11

#7 Eau Claire (6-1) had been shipping up to New York to race against fellow New York-breds in her last few starts for Arnaud Delacour, and now makes her local debut. She raced on dirt at Saratoga, and raced wide before fading, running a respectable 72. She’s lightly-raced and should be able to handle these second time on dirt. #1 Nibbles (7-2) was second on this track in July, and made a big, looping move for a second-place finish. She’s been in improving form on grass and there’s no reason to think it won’t transfer over to dirt. #9 Lunar Ice (5-1) ran in the mid-60s consistently on dirt earlier in the year at Churchill Downs and looks for a rebound after a disappoint grass race last out.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 1 1/16 MILES

6-4-1-2

It wouldn’t be surprising to see a few of these come back for the Maryland Million in 16 days. #6 Rustys Gifvefifty (5-2) took advantage of a ground-saving trip and held on to win an open n/w1x race at Pimlico last out. He’s run in the low/mid-80s consistently all year and will be close to the pace. #4 Crush It (7-2) makes his first start since July 15, when he came from off the pace and won going away with a career-best figure of 89. He likes to rate near the pace and should work out a good trip saving ground. #1 One Ten (6-1), half of the Jose Corrales entry, won a n/w1x race at Timonium last out and has run in the 80s in his last three starts at Laurel. He has great late pace figures, so if he can stay a bit closer to the pace than usual, he’ll be a serious factor late.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

2-4-5-15

#2 Masked Heroine (20-1) has that high morning line but will likely go off at much lower odds on dirt. She broke her maiden in her fifth career start last out, with a career-opt figure of 69. This’ll be first start since June 24, but she’s worked well since then. #4 Walks Like a Lady (7-2) has raced just once in the past year, but it was a maiden-breaking effort on grass here in June. She showed some promise on dirt earlier in her career against decent maidens in Florida. #5 Icy Reply (8-1) has run as high as a 78 on dirt on the past. Last out, she got outdueled by Senson, who held on to win and came back to win here last Saturday.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS

3-7-8-4

Now’s as good a time as any for Sara Hess to win her first race as a jockey. She’s aboard #3 Eleazar (8-1), who showed speed in her first two starts of the year and ran figures in the 70s. She couldn’t get to the front next out on grass and was well-beaten, but I don’t think she’ll have much trouble getting to the front here. #7 Raise a Speights (7-1) returns to a big dirt track. She ran in the 80s and upper-70s earlier in the year, but struggled in her last two starts. One of the came on Timonium, the other one was on grass. She’s dropping in class and will also be near the pace. #8 Bet on Bitz (6-1) closed well from just off the pace for second in her last start, with a season’s-best figure of 73. She’s been getting better ever since returning from a long layoff in mid-July.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

3-9-11-5

There’s not a lot of dirt form in this race. The only one in here who we know can run well on dirt is #3 Acadian Girl (7-5), who has won three in a row by a combined 16 1/4 lengths. This daughter of Norumbega has won those three starts in gate-to-wire fashion and should have her way on the front end once again. From there, she could find herself in the Maryland Million. #9 Utterly Courageous (20-1) steadily runs in the 70s on dirt, which can’t compete with Acadian Girl, but should be able to round out the exacta. She’ll be near the pace and will try to hang on as she stretches out beyond six furlongs. #11 Full Count Felicia (2-1) raced just once on dirt, in last year’s Demosielle Stakes at Aqueduct. She raced wide throughout, and though she faded, she earned a relatively respectable 72. She ran in the upper-80s on the grass twice at Colonial Downs and could make some noise if that form transfers to dirt even a little bit.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

8-2-7-1

It’s the same race as race 7, only with horses who have some aptitude on dirt. #8 Mavilus (6-1) steps up after spending almost the whole year against starter allowance types. She had little chance against Acadian Girl last out but handily won at Delaware two starts back and has hit the board ten times from 15 starts on this track. #2 Glowsity (6-1) has run her two best figures in her last two starts. She didn’t do much against much better in the Weather Vane Stakes last out, but still ran an 85, which is competitive against these. #7 Charming Way (7-2) has finished in the exacta six times from seven starts on this track and gets a faster track than last time, where she showed little.

RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

7-6-3-10

#7 Holy Delite (15-1) was well-bet on debut at Timonium, and made decent ground late despite racing greenly. She’s adding blinkers here and gets to face a field where a lot of the contenders are coming off layoffs. #6 That’s Some Kiss (15-1) closed for second at this level last out, running a career-best figure of 66. She looks like she’ll fit in once again at the level. #3 Ladro Di Fichi (5-2) has hit the board in all seven of her starts, but of course has never won. She’s run in the 70s consistently lately, and this looks like a field she can finally beat.