ANALYSIS

This never-won-four allowance contest for state-breds has the look of a chalky affair. Pacewise, it projects to see #5 One Night Mike (5-2) on the lead early while being pressed by #1 Coastal Mission (4-5), with the latter overhauling him in the last quarter-mile to win. Coastal Mission hasn’t done a thing wrong in his seven-race career, and trainer Jeff Runco, who generally spots his horses very realistically, has taken him out of town repeatedly to race at Laurel, where he has a win and three stakes placings. His only defeat in three local tries came when going one turn — shorter than he likes — and he arrives here off a dominant win versus never-three state-bred foes… One Night Mike likewise hasn’t done much wrong and should be the one they have to catch. He’s won his last two starts going 6 1/2 furlongs, and his last, going seven, was fine, as well, a third-place finish versus similar… #4 Strong Lil Kokoro (15-1) enters in career-best form and should be running late… #2 Spanglish (5-1) just missed against similar in last, but we’d like to see a repeat before accepting 5-1 on a horse who’s been 10-1 or more in five straight at this level…