Charles Town: Which trainers are in the zone?
The Biz- February 8, 2023
As we move into February, we’re beginning to rack up enough data to analyze trainer trends from a betting perspective. Which trainers have been good to bet on? And which not so much?
Using a metric combining win percentage, in-the-money percentage, and return on the wagering dollar, we’ve rated the Charles Town trainers. The number are current prior to the day’s races on February 8.
It’s worth remembering it’s early days in the meet, and some off to slow starts will pick it up as the year continues, while some others may hit some bumpy spots. Still: Who are helping the bettors out? And who aren’t?
On a scale where a rating of 100 will be at or near the top of the heap, the top five among conditioners with 14 or more starts are:
- Mike Jones, Jr.: 137. The veteran conditioner, with 27 starts to date, has been winning at a good clip (19%), but it’s in the ROI category that he really shines. If you had bet on all his CT runners to date, you would have more than doubled your money so far. Four of his five winners have been at least 6-1, and his Little Roo Roo is 2-for-2 on the season, having broken his maiden at 21-1 Jan. 4 and then won again at 11-1 Feb. 1.
- Anthony Farrior: 79. Leading trainer Farrior has 29 wins at the meet, and no other trainer has more than nine. He’s also winning in bunches, with a 34% strike rate.
- Jeff Runco: 67. Longtime local kingpin Runco has to some extent been surpassed by Farrior, with that trainer having a larger barn and a higher strike rate. But Runco still has plenty of quality runners, and his lower profile seems to be a boon for bettors. His ROI of -7% is quite good, the third best among the group.
- Ollie Figgins, III: 66. Figgins also shines in the ROI category at -2%, second best in the group, and he’s winning at a 19% clip.
- Kevin Joy: 55. Joy’s win percentage and in-the-money percentage look quite similar to those of Figgins, but his ROI isn’t quite as strong, at -19%, still better than most.
ALL CHARLES TOWN TRAINERS WITH AT LEAST 14 STARTS AND 1 WIN
| Name | Starts | Win Pct. | ITM Pct. | ROI | Composite score |
| Jones Jr Michael E | 27 | 19% | 41% | 110% | 137 |
| Farrior Anthony | 86 | 34% | 59% | -12% | 79 |
| Runco Jeff C | 50 | 18% | 56% | -7% | 67 |
| Figgins III Ollie L | 16 | 19% | 44% | -2% | 66 |
| Joy Kevin J | 31 | 19% | 42% | -19% | 55 |
| Hurley Jack | 14 | 21% | 36% | -32% | 46 |
| Pickett Crystal G | 47 | 11% | 26% | -22% | 40 |
| Brown Ronney W | 51 | 14% | 45% | -41% | 37 |
| Hillegass Alexandra | 14 | 7% | 14% | -14% | 37 |
| Contreras Javier | 31 | 16% | 29% | -42% | 32 |
| Viands Stacey R | 19 | 16% | 53% | -67% | 25 |
| Casey John A | 16 | 13% | 38% | -64% | 19 |
| Shanley Timothy | 20 | 5% | 25% | -59% | 10 |
| Pennella Rhea M | 15 | 7% | 40% | -83% | 2 |
| Grams Timothy C | 22 | 9% | 36% | -86% | 1 |
| McKee John D | 26 | 4% | 46% | -87% | -1 |
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