Charles Town: Which jockeys and trainers are hot Mar. 23?

  • userThe Biz
  • dateMarch 23, 2023

For bettors, finding jockeys and trainers on a hot streak can be a huge advantage. Which jockeys and trainers at Charles Town are hot right now?

The metric we devised takes into account win percentage, percentage of in-the-money finishes, and wagering return on investment (i.e., if you’d bet on all of the jockey’s or trainer’s horses, how would you have done financially?).

The most heavily weighted of the three is wagering ROI, so a rider/trainer who is doing well in that category will generally score well even if their other elements aren’t great. But we included the other elements because a) a rider with a high strike rate and a high ROI is the best bet of all and b) they also go to whether a rider/trainer is usable in exotics. Of course, many other factors are also critical in constructing wagers.

To put the focus on the “who’s hot” element, we have included data only from the last 30 days. What’s more, to minimize small-sample-size problems that could significantly affect the list, we have included only those riders and trainers who have made more than 10 starts in the last 30 days.

Limiting the list to those with more than 10 starts leaves us with 24 qualifying jockeys and 19 qualifying trainers.

JOCKEYS ON HOT STREAKS

Here are the top CT jockeys from the last 30 days:

NameStartsWin Pct.ITM Pct.ROIComposite score
Ramgeet Andre R3312%30%106%129
Bocachica Arnaldo5139%71%-11%78
Nunez Juan Mauricio2214%41%12%67
Rodriguez Victor4414%32%13%64
Bocachica Orlando4312%47%1%60
Mendez Marshall6324%48%-12%59
Mckenzie Connie1010%20%-3%46
Hiraldo Christian5114%27%-13%44
Rivera Javier176%12%2%44

NOTES The composite scores of all qualifying jockeys range from 129 to -22; the median is 24… Andre Ramgeet isn’t bringing a lot of winners home — four in the last 30 days — but the ones he does are paying. His lone CT winner this past weekend paid $51.60… Arnaldo Bocachica has 20 wins in the last 30 days to lead the colony, while Marshall Mendez’ 63 starts are the most… Bocachica had a 71% ITM rate during the month, the most of any rider… The “other Boca,” brother Orlando Bocachica, also is in the top group and has a +1% ROI, making him just one of five riders in the colony to have a positive ROI the past month…

TRAINERS ON HOT STREAKS

Here are the top CT trainers from the last 30 days:

NameStartsWin Pct.ITM Pct.ROIComposite score
Lucas Anthony1323%46%429%347
Shanley Timothy157%20%22%62
Farrior Anthony5026%56%-34%57
Figgins III Ollie L1030%50%-42%53
Grams Timothy C1718%29%-15%52
Jones Jr Michael E2516%48%-43%39
Contreras Javier1916%63%-55%37

NOTES The composite scores of all qualifying trainers range from 347 to 6; the median score is 33… Trainer Anthony Lucas has gotten three longshots home the last month to zoom to the head of the class; this past week it was 24-1 Prussian Blue… Anthony Farrior’s 13 wins were nearly double any other trainer (Jeff Runco’s 7 were second), and his 26% strike rate was second among qualifying trainers; Ollie Figgins recorded a 30% win rate with three wins from 10 starts… Lucas and Tim Shanley were the only qualifying trainers with positive ROIs… Four trainers who did not qualify because they had too few starts also are on notable heaters: Kristy Gazzier, Ronald Sigler, Greg Viands, and Lynn Cash all won three or four races during the last 30 days on between seven and nine starts. All four would be on the list had they amassed 10 or more starts…

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