ANALYSIS

It seems like a bunch of these are going to want the early lead, and even though it’s just a 4 1/2-furlong dash — and one of the early types might just go on with it — let’s see if a horse can take a stalk-and-pounce approach to this one. #4 Bella Mela (10-1) won nicely at first asking going 4 1/2 last September before stretching out to two turns for the remaining three starts of her season. She showed pretty steady improvement during the year and arrives here off a couple of months of r’ ‘n’ r’. In her debut, she sat a couple of lengths off the speed before powering home, and a similar trip might be in the offing here… She’ll have to contend with morning line favorite #3 El Lucerito (9-5), who’s just destroyed the competition in her last two starts and is making quick work of her conditions. This should be a good test for the fave, because she should face pace pressure, particularly from the ultra-speedy Now Hook’em (more on her in a moment)… The late-running #9 Mystic O’Shaunesie (5-1) certainly hopes a pace duel develops. She didn’t show a ton last out, but Honeyquist is a pretty different animal than what she’s seeing today, so her late kick may have more impact… #8 Now Hook’em (6-1) has shown tremendous front-end speed; she’s gotten the quarter in sub-22 seconds in three straight races. That should, at the very least, put pressure on El Lucerito. This one’s been away since August, but note that one bullet move in preparation. Trainer Tim Grams is 2-for-13 (15%) bringing horses back off similar layoffs at 4 1/2 furlongs…