Charles Town picks and horses to watch: April 21, 2023

Charles Town Races has an eight-race card on tap for this evening. Post time for the opener is 7:00 p.m., and we’ve got Charles Town picks.

Carryovers: Jackpot Pick 6, $69,986

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE

Race 3

CONTENDERS

1-3-4-7

ANALYSIS

Top choice #1 Castle Toy (5-1) will need to get out of the gate with alacrity, leaving from the one-hole, but if she manages that — and she usually does — she should have a big chance to take this relatively paceless group all the way. No shame in that last out defeat: winner Great Spirit has the look of a star and ran this miss into the ground. Todays’ rivals look more manageable… Morning line fave #3 Timetogetup (2-1) stacks up well enough versus these, but she’s winless in five outings at the trip, and that seems a direct result of her late-running style, which leaves her at the mercy of what happens up front…#4 Cherokee Castle (5-2) returns on short rest in a new barn, that of trainer Kevin Joy, and she arrives off a win. But she struggled against allowance foes prior, and that’s a dicey resume to accept short odds… Will the real #7 Siente La Brisa (8-1) please stand up? Are you the one with a bunch of 30-something Beyers, including last out? Or the one who ripped off a 64 three back? The latter fig could win here; the former will not…

Race 6

6-1-3-4

We’ll take a small stand against the favorite, #3 Late Night Larry (5-2), on the grounds that it’s his first at CT, first at night, and shifting from a one-turn mile at Aqueduct to three turns here. He’s probably the best of these, but those other factors argue against accepting odds that probably will be shorter than the line… That pushes us towards trip-lover #6 Raise a Speights (3-1), who’s never been worse than second in five outings at the distance and may be controlling speed here… #1 Maximum Impact (5-1) drops a level off an even effort but has an unsightly 0-for-9 mark at the distance… #4 Hobe Sound (7-2) gave willing chase in last…

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