PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: MAY 11, 2023

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0 Super High 5 — $0

Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $25,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

1-8-2-3

We’ll kick off this year’s Pimlico spring stand with an 8-race card, with four races on the lawn. I was excited to bet #1 Carmichaelspioneer (8-1) a few weeks ago, but the race was scrubbed when the card was cancelled due to track issues. He’s back in action here, and my enthusiasm remains. He ran big first off a very long layoff last out, dueling most of the way and holding second with a career-best brisnet figure of 77. The winner of that race, Tenax, returned to win his next outing. This one has never raced on grass before, but if he takes to the surface, he’ll be tough. #8 Sharp Red Eagle (7-2) ran in the 70s three times on grass against better last year. He showed little in his first start off a seven-month break on dirt at Penn National last out, but that was likely a mere prep for a race like this. #2 Star Shopping (5-1) loves to cash checks but isn’t too big on winning, having won just once, of course, while finishing second or third nine times. He’s likely to prompt the pace and hang around for a share once again.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

1-3-7-4

I’m looking for a Michael Scheffres/Carlos Mancilla double to start the Pimlico meet with #1 I Am the Mike (3-1). He’s run lifetime-top figures in back-to-back races, most recently earning a 70 with a solid late rally for second. The winner, Fowl Nation, returned to beat an open field of 3-year-old claimers in his next start. #3 Gaming Soul (2-1) drops from the $30,000 level and showed the most early speed he ever has in his last start. He was near the pace and faded that day. There isn’t much other speed in this spot, and he could find himself on an uncontested lead. #7 General J R (9-2) has gotten plenty of checks but no wins, and looks to rebound off an unusually flat effort against $20,000 foes last out.

RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)

3-2-4-7

#3 Cupids Dream (5-1) got up to win first off the claim by Richard Sillaman at Tampa Bay Downs, then came from further off the pace than usual to get a solid second in her most recent outing. Both of those starts were at a mile, after sub subpar races at 1 1/16 miles earlier in the meet, and she gets to stay at her preferred distance today. #2 Erin’s Enthusiasm (9-2) led most of the way before getting caught at Aqueduct last out, and will try to keep moving forward third off the claim by Jamie Ness. She might find herself loose on the lead once again. The other Sillaman, #4 Inanna’s Quest (5-1), took advantage of a very fast pace to win at 1 3/8 miles last out. She ran at least an 82 for the third time in her last four starts in the process. She’ll be far out of it early and hopes to get a pace to close into.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

2-3-7-5

#2 Sir Smoak (3-1) broke his maiden going a mile earlier this year, but flattened out at the distance against winners in his most recent try. His two best figures have come at seven furlongs or less, so cutting back a bit might be just what he needs. #3 Speights Your Mind (4-1) sat the trip and kicked away to win against older rivals in his last dirt start. He returns to the main track after a rough break on the lawn last out. He’s the only one in the field who has won multiple times. #7 Best Choice Baby (3-1) sat a great trip while stalking the pace in his last start, and kicked away to break his maiden with a career-best 76. He’ll try to sit another trip like that here. The second and third-place finishers in that race came back to hit the board in their next appearances.

RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

8-1-5-6

#8 Classic Colors (3-1) held her own against better on grass last year, running the mid/upper-80s twice. She dropped into conditioned claimers at Charles Town earlier this season, and now makes her return to the lawn and her first start for Brittany Russell. This looks like a chance for a fresh start and some serious improvement. #1 Ms Merrabel (10-1) won twice in a row for Ness at Parx and now returns to grass, a surface on which she won back-to-back starts in gate-to-wire style last fall. She hasn’t shown much speed in her last few starts on dirt; we’ll see if that changes here. #5 Princess Javoncia (9-2) sat the trip and kicked away to win her last start with a grass-best 82, but has not been seen since that November 6 effort.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

4-8-6-9

#4 Dancer’s Melody (9-2) has been uber-consistent all winter and spring long and most recently beat a similar field after a wide trip. She should press the pace from the two-path, as the main speed drew to her inside and is likely to falter. #8 Shackleford County (7-2) started her year with three straight wins, all in determined style, but faltered last out. She’s going first off the claim by Bob Klesaris. We’ll see if she rebounds here, although she does run the risk of another wide trip with her post. #6 Awesome View (3-1) outfinished Dancer’s Melody in her most recent dirt start, and returns to the main track after finishing well-beaten last out on grass. She’s one of two in here who has run at least a 78 in each of her last three starts; Dancer’s Melody is the other.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

3-8-6-1

Much like Carmichaelspioneer earlier in the day, this race comes down to whether or not #3 Ladneedshandler (6-1) handles grass. He’s shown blistering speed on dirt this year, and is almost certain to set the pace in this one. While he disappointed in his lone grass start, that was in August of his 2-year-old year, and he’s improved plenty since then. #8 Tenax (6-1) lasted a long way on the lead last out and fended off pace pressure to win, beating some of the rivals he’ll see today in the process. He went on a bit of a downslide over the winter, but has since improved with every start. #6 Boss Man J J (9-2) dueled with Tenax that day and ended up second by a head. That was his second start off a long layoff, while Tenax had the benefit of racing all winter long. This one should keep moving froward third off the bench.

RACE 8: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1-5-2-6

It’s a now-or-never spot for #1 Majestic Frontier (4-5). He’s been unable to break through against better non-winners of three types as of late, burning up a lot of money in the process. However, he’s run no worse than a 78 in his last four starts, marks that tower over those of the rest. As long as he runs his usual race, he should be able to finally break through. #5 Branco Maria (4-1) has closed well to hit the board in three of his last four starts at this level, with figures not far off from those of Majestic Frontier. However, he’s getting a rider switch to Alex Crispin, currently on a 58-race losing streak. I can’t help but be wary. #2 Total Effort (9-2) lasted on the lead to beat n/w2L foes three starts back, and looks like the main speed in here. The distance is the main question.

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