Spa selections 2023: Saratoga picks august 5

  • userJoseph Aiello
  • dateAugust 4, 2023

In Spa Selections, Saratoga correspondent Joseph Aiello provides Saratoga picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action!

Follow along all meet with all the exciting action (and good betting opportunities)!

Race 6 – Grade III Troy Stakes

1. #4 Caravel (3-5) – Wouldn’t be surprising to see this Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint winner lose, but this mare still has a slight edge on this tough field and wins with the right trip

2. #8 Remuda (10-1) – Has shown the ability to win with a stalking trip, which may be necessary here in what could be a quick early pace and should be the right value in this even field

3. #3 Cogburn (8-1) – Back to back wins since switching to turf, this Asmussen trainee might get the right set up to close into and has the closing kick to take advantage

4. #6 Mister Mmmmm (20-1) – Doesn’t quite have the class of some others in here, but a recent  forty-five and two four furlong work and strong record at this distance make him playable

Race 7 – Fasig-Tipton Lure Stakes

1. #3 Dakota Gold (5-2) – This colt’s recent efforts put him among the best here, and the right timing by Irad Ortiz could put this Danny Gargan trainee in the winner’s circle

2. #5 Speaking Scout (9-2) – Has the class to be a top choice here, but seems to want a bit more distance than this, so will need to be closer to mid pack to have winning chances 

3. #1 Portfolio Company (7-2) – This Klaravich and Brown runner has fared well at the Spa, plus Rosario has gotten the most out of him and is best suited staying close to the leaders

4. #2 Smokin’ T (7-2) – Has hit the board in all four tries this year, and even if this isn’t the top win contender, he can close into a good position with the right trip here

Race 8 – Grade I Test Stakes

1. #8 Maple Leaf Mel (2-1) – Undefeated in five tries, this filly is better suited than some to run at seven furlongs, plus has two wins over this track but will need to hold off Munnys Gold

2. #7 Munnys Gold (7-2) – Probably has the most impressive seven furlong race of this field, and a repeat of that effort would be enough to win, plus cuts back to her preferred distance

3. #1 Pretty Mischievous (9-5) – Seems to prefer going over eight furlongs, but still too classy to overlook completely and could be a threat if the pace heats up and she is closer to the lead

4. #4 Jersey Pearl (15-1) – Doesn’t have the class of Dorth Vader, but back to back six furlong wins give a glimpse of her impressive speed which could translate well here as she improves

Race 9 – Grade I Saratoga Derby Invitational 

1. #2 Program Trading (7-2) – Probably will be over-bet and hasn’t shown the most in here, but if the price is right, it would be tough to pass up these connections with an improving runner

2. #5 Far Bridge (2-1) – Should end up as the favorite if Program Trading doesn’t take too much money as this colt has been close in every race and has proven he can get the distance

3. #1 Mondego (5-1) – Will likely be controlling the lead with a chance to wire this field, but will need to get a slower pace and little pressure to be able to make this distance 

4. #6 Webslinger (4-1) – Truly Quality showed more upside than this Casse trainee, but better class and consistent closing efforts give this one a good chance to close into third or fourth

Race 10 – Grade I Whitney Stakes

1. #6 Cody’s Wish (1-2) – The real questions for this runner are whether or not he can manage a two turn nine furlong race, but this is still the clear best in here even if he prefers one turn

2. #2 Charge It (5-1) – This colt by Tapit has a higher chance of pulling an upset than anyone purely due to his running style as he should be close to the lead and the pace might be mild

3. #1 Zandon (9-2) – Put in a solid second last time to Cody’s Wish, but is still a tier below not winning since last year’s Blue Grass although has a good chance to hit the board

4. #5 White Abarrio (6-1) – Might be sitting on a huge effort after a decent finish off an odd trip last time in the Metropolitan and first time in the Dutrow barn, plus gets Irad Ortiz here

Race 11 – Alw 149500n1x

1. #10 Caramel Chip (7-2) – A frequent runner who has been within the top three in his last nine tries, still clearly in good form and might be a better price than the morning line odds

2. #7 Everso Mischievous (2-1) – This Brad Cox trainee may end up preferring longer distance, but has some of the best races and speed figures in this field and comes off a sharp work

3. #5 Frat Pack (9-2) – Has two races both over a sloppy track, and if he adjusts well to a drier surface should compare well to this field based on his last race win

4. #1 Cape Trafalgar (10-1) – Took a while to break maiden, but might have some early speed that could prove valuable here and has been well respected by the betting public

Race 12 – Alw 149500n1x

1. #7 Drakon (15-1) – This feels like a field to take a shot in, and this Diodoro trainee has been improving albeit against lesser competition, but has a strong record in the money on turf

2. #1 Shutters (3-1) – No longer in the Chad Brown barn, this five year old gelding has good winning chances if Velazquez keeps him a bit further back than last time

3. #10 Al’s Rocket (4-1) – Tough post, but has been competitive amongst this class and has a good enough closing kick to find himself in the top four here

4. #4 My Sea Cottage (8-1) – Should be near or on the lead, and the primary question is whether or not he prefers this distance versus going a bit shorter

  • Tiz the Law
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