LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: august 19, 2023
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$4,942
Jackpot Super High 5 — $986
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
1-4-11-6
#1 Red Wind (5-2) has used her stalk-and-pounce style very effectively in her last few starts. She kicked away to beat a slightly softer field last out, running a brisnet figure in the 80s for the second consecutive race. She should get a great trip off the leaders on the inside and is a serious threat as long as she doesn’t get caught in traffic. #4 Social Engagement (7-2) makes her local debut for Kent Sweezey. She ran some big figures earlier in the year at Gulfstream Park, but has had some time off since early May, when she flattened out after a wide trip at Indianapolis. She should be close to the pace without losing too much ground, and hopefully that last race disguises her form a bit and drives up her price. #11 Linny Kate (4-1) couldn’t settle in the early stage of her last start at Saratoga and was flat late. When he was more relaxed in her prior grass outing at Pimlico, she rallied to victory with a strong 82. She has the best late kick in the race, but may find herself further behind early than the other main contenders.
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE
1-5-3-2
#1 Chelsea Wall (2-1) enters here off of two straight wins at Penn National and Parx. She kicked it into get to get up and win going seven furlongs at the latter track last out, and should enjoy the long stretch run of the one-turn mile. Her average late pace figure is the best in the race by nine points. #5 Hashtag Lucky (7-2) ran a huge 88 last out under about the most ideal circumstances you can get. It was a four-horse washed-off event, and she strolled on the lead as the 2-5 choice. She had solid figures earlier this year, but had been on the decline in her prior few before her monster win. Could that race have been a confidence booster? Possibly. She was also facing much better than these in those prior efforts. Getting to a level like this should help. #3 Sweet Talia (15-1) is in improving form and should sit close to the pace from along the rail.
- Sea Dancer gets valuable stakes win in CarouselSea Dancer, a younger half-sis to one of the top turf horses in the country, earned her first stakes win in Saturday’s Carousel at Laurel Park.
RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS (GRASS)
5-2-6-9
The description “chased” in the running line of the last start for #5 Rockingham Joe (9-5) is a bit of a misnomer. He pressed the early leader on the outside and ultimately outfinished him by more than three lengths. However, he couldn’t overcome Silver Style, who sat a perfect trip and only got by Rockingham Joe in the last sixteenth. It was a courageous effort, and he’s facing what looks like a pretty easy field. He should handle them without much trouble. #2 Smooth Motion (12-1) has shown improving form on dirt in his last two starts, setting the pace and holding on for shares at Parx. He looks like the main pace threat in this one. #6 Windsor Park (3-1) goes first off a five-month layoff for Shug McGaughey. He’s worked well at Monmouth Park for a while getting ready for this spot, and he has decent grass breeding (his dam, Carriage Trail, won the 2008 De La Rose Stakes on grass), but I wonder if Shug is using this race simply as a screw-tightener for a spot down the road. The board might tell the story.
RACE 4: CLAIMING $40,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
3-1-5-6
#3 Poggibonsi (9-5) has improved sharply since joining the Kieron Magee barn in mid-May. She’s won her two dirt starts since then by open lengths, drawing off to a strong win with an 80 last time on this surface. She was a game second on grass last out, battling for the lead and outfinishing her dueling partner by 2 3/4 lengths. #1 Biogenic Babe (5-2), half of a Jamie Ness-trained entry, cuts back around one turn and has won her last two sprint starts. She has good tactical speed and would get first jump if Poggibonsi tires. #5 In My Opinion (6-1) has been well-beaten in her last four starts, but all of those races were against better rivals. She gobbled up ground in the last eighth at Parx two starts back, making up more than eleven lengths in the lane, and should be a late factor.
RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
1-7-5-9
Following his win last Saturday first off a seven-month layoff, #1 Battalion (5-2) wheels back quickly for a return appearance. He turned in a game performance that day, withstanding the challenge of American Unity on his outside and prevailing in a close photo finish. He’s the only one in here who has run in the 80s in each of his last four starts. #7 Cannon’s Roar (3-1) is a familiar name to anyone who follows the circuit. This 9-year-old gelding is set to make his 48th career start in this race. He hasn’t won since September 2020, but he’s been facing better rivals in recent times. He just missed against $30,000 starter optional types two races ago, so he might still have enough left in the tank to beat a field like this. #5 Hunter Joe (4-1) closed well for second in his last grass start behind stakes winner Spycraft and now stretches out around two turns. He should sit near the pace; from there it’s a matter of how long he lasts.
RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
6-7-3-10
#6 Margie’s Fun Son (5-2) would’ve won last out if the wire was a few feet further away. He closed frantically in the mud but lost by a neck to favored Delegated. This one ran a career-best 79 that day and was claimed out of that race by Claudio Gonzalez, who is always sharp first off the claim. #7 Dowsing Rod (3-1) set the pace that day and ended up beaten less than a length, gamely fending off Delegated for as long as he could. Next out, he came from off the pace and once again showed heart to get second. He keeps getting better with each start since making his 3-year-old debut in mid-June. #3 The Big Enchilada (20-1) was well-backed on debut, going off at 9-2, but faded after pressing the pace and was not persevered with late. He has room to improve second time out and you’ll get a much better price today.
- “Miracle” horse All Caps wins first in two yearsAll Caps nearly died from an infection two years ago. So how did she get to the winner’s circle at Charles Town Saturday? “A miracle,” says her owner.
RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
4-8-5-7
#4 Sevier (5-2) has won two in a row on the lead, and now finds himself in a spot without any competitive early speed. He should cruise on the front end with a very easy trip. Rudy Sanchez-Solomon has a dangerous pair in here whom I figure will round out the trifecta. #8 Shady Munni (3-1) has also won two straight, both on this track, although his figures are slightly below those of Sevier. He has good tactical speed, so he should be able to rate near the pace and outkick the others to hold second. Stablemate #5 Silent Malice (7-2) has run some decent figures in his first two starts back off nearly a year layoff, although he was not a serious factor in either of those contests. He won four of five races last year with big figures each time, making dramatic late rallies to win many of them.
RACE 8: ALL BRANDY STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED/SIRED, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
8-11-2-6
The first stakes race of the day is named for the four-time Maryland-bred stakes winner, who was voted the first Maryland-bred champion 3-year-old filly in 1962. #8 Thegirlfromireland (2-1) has run her three best figures within her last three starts. Last out, she raced wide every step of the way, but kicked on late and defeated a first-level field. The second and third-place runners both came from far further off a hot pace than she did. She has a strong middle kick and will be a threat if Feargal Lynch times his move just right. #11 Coconut Cake (9-5) was outclassed in the Big Dreyfus Stakes last out following a wide trip, but got up to win the Jameela Stakes two races back when she saved ground and came up the rail. While she’s once again drawn towards the outside, she should be able to save more ground than last time if she’s allowed to draft. Last time, Will Humphrey, perhaps paranoid of a slow pace, rushed the mare towards the leaders and had her overland throughout. Sheldon Russell, who rode her victory two starts back, gets back in the saddle. #2 Downtown Katie (3-1) is the only on in the field who haas run at least an 85 in each of her last three starts, but her lack of early speed often eaves her with too much to do. She’s hit the boar din her last eight starts, but has just two wins in that stretch. While she has to be respected, it looks like she’s better-used underneath.
RACE 9: FIND STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
7-3-6-5
The other stakes contest today is named for the hard-knocking Sagamore-bred gelding, who at the time of retirement was the all-time leading Maryland-bred earner. #7 Sky’s Not Falling (5-2) kicked away to win as much the best on this track earlier this year, then held his own against open stakes company in his next two races. He has a strong closing punch and great recent figures, having run at least an 87 in his last four races. #3 The Addison Pour (5-1) looked like the future-book favorite for this race earlier this summer, when he won back-to-back races. Two starts ago, he However, he was outkicked late last out and finished third. Sheldon Russell gets back aboard as this gelding looks for a return to peak form. #6 B Determined (10-1) has run two big races in a row going shorter, but has shown aptitude at longer distances as well. He’ll do his best running late.
RACE 10: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
6-2-1-3
#6 Espresso Lungo (5-1) made a middle move to the front, battled on the lead, and held on to win last out. The other two horses who were on that pace finished off the board, including the favorite who was eased. #2 Salty Heir (3-1) is a consistent sort, with figures in the low/mid-70s in four of his last five starts. He chased the pace and was a solid second at this level behind an odds-on choice last out. #1 Orcovix (7-2) was fourth behind Salty Heir in his most recent, and has run some big marks as of late, with an 80 three back and a 77 five back. While his form is inconsistent, his best race wins this.
LATEST NEWS
- Laurel Park picks and ponderings: December 21, 2024
- Laurel Park picks and ponderings: December 20, 2024
- Laurel Park picks and ponderings: December 15, 2024
- Charles Town picks and analysis: December 14, 2024
- Laurel Park picks and ponderings: December 14, 2024
- Laurel Park picks and ponderings: December 13, 2024