In Spa Selections, Saratoga correspondent Joseph Aiello provides Saratoga picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action!
Follow along all meet with all the exciting action (and good betting opportunities)!
We provide full-card picks and analysis for this afternoon’s races at Laurel Park.
Race 3 – Smart N Fancy Stakes
1. #4 Poppy Flower (5-1) – One that prefers to close late, but might benefit from a more forward trip from Jose Ortiz similar to her race two back where she won a grade III
2. #5 Roses for Debra (1-2) – The clear favorite with a repeat of her last try, but got a perfect stalking trip and ran a career best there so could be vulnerable if she doesn’t get the same trip
3. #3 Train to Artemus (10-1) – Has two wins over this course and should be in the right stalking position at this distance, and could have chances if the pace is quick
4. #2 Bubble Rock (3-1) – Seems to prefer longer distance, but should be in control of the pace here and is maybe a bit more dangerous if Rosario can keep the fractions on the slower side
Race 7 – OC 62500n2x
1. #1 You Look Cold (4-1) – Didn’t enjoy the softer dirt surface last time so maybe one to avoid if there is a bit of rain, but has a few six furlong races that are good enough to win here
2. #3 Headland (8-5) – Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz have had a great meet together and are likely to be shorter price than expected, but this one can win with a repeat of her last race here
3. #2 Unsung Melody (5-1) – Gets back to a more manageable distance, but ran against Alabama winner Randomized last time so should improve purely on the class drop
4. #7 First to Act (8-1) – Has run progressively worse in graded stakes company, but now faces against lesser horses here which should lead to some improvement
Race 8 – Alw 149500n1x
1. #1 Avenue Niel (2-1) – Faded a bit in the stretch last time and probably won’t be great value, but should improve in her second race in North America and second try over this course
2. #4 Anatolian (3-1) – Nearly won last time at this distance over this turf course, and appears to be in good form in three straight tries on the grass this year and comes off a sharp work
3. #9 Rhombique (10-1) – Has won once on the turf and never hit the board otherwise in twelve tries on grass, but could finish third or fourth at a price with plenty of experience in this class
4. #6 Sweet Dutchess (7-2) – Has a good record in the money, but will need to stretch out to eleven furlongs here and may be best closing from the back of the pack
Race 9 – Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes
1. #5 Nest (4-5) – Wouldn’t be shocking to see this filly by Curlin lose if she doesn’t have the lead at the top of the stretch, but still clearly the one to beat with the right trip here
2. #1 Idiomatic (3-1) – Could be dangerous with slowed down fractions on the front, and clearly doesn’t have distance issues winning going further than this last time for Cox and Juddmonte
3. #6 Clariere (5-2) – Unlike Nest who almost exclusively wins with stalking trips, this mare can win from off the pace and left too much ground last time so needs some pace here to close into
4. #3 Secret Oath (8-1) – Not the likeliest winner, but should be in the mix with Sixtythreecaliber as one to round out exotics or finish a bit closer if the pace sets up for her
Race 10 – Mdn 136.5k
1. #2 Cowichan (3-1) – Has been bet to favorite in four straight, improving marginally each race and likely wins here with a repeat of her last effort against this field
2. #9 Oolong Hai (6-1) – Could show some early speed here, and if the fractions are fair, might have enough to hang on in the stretch with winning chances
3. #10 Arrasou (9-2) – This filly keeps Irad Ortiz for Chad Brown and didn’t get her desired turf surface in her debut, now likely improving on grass second time out at a fair price
4. #5 Risk Free (8-1) – Sixteen chances to break her maiden and has hit the board in twelve of those sixteen, this filly is certainly consistent and may run well here in just her third turf try
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Joseph Aiello, III, a graduate of Colgate University, is a lifelong racing fan and frequent Saratoga visitor, where he avidly hones his handicapping skills.
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