PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$0 Jackpot Super High 5 — $2,198 Late Pick 5$0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

9-7-6-2

We’ve got a 9-race card under absolutely perfect skies. #9 Sky Buy (7-2) improved sharply second off the layoff last out, making a nice move from just off the pace and holding onto second. The third-place finisher that day, Aztec Bay, broke her maiden at Timonium two races later. This one should enjoy a good trip pressing the pace on the outside. #7 Celtic War Cry (10-1) was beaten by some of these last out, but the addition of blinkers should help, as she struggled to keep a straight path that day. #6 P J’s Rider (8-5) is absolutely plunging in class for Brittany Russell, having most recently raced against $45,000 foes at Colonial Downs. She has early speed in a race without much of it, so she could work out a nice front-running trip with easy fractions.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS

1-7-5-11

Today’s three scheduled grass races were pulled off yesterday. #1 Loving Cup (3-1) has the best late pace figures in the race. She flattened out a bit last out at Timonium, but should benefit from a well-timed move. #7 Thunder Boss (12-1) has abundant early speed but can rarely finish the job. If she’s ever going to win at this condition, a five-furlong race would be the spot to do it in. #5 Matty Bo (8-1) was a solid second with a 68 in her second start off the layoff, and her most recent dirt effort. She’ll prompt the pace and take advantage should Thunder Boss tire.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

4-7-6-3

#4 Irish Lace (4-1) rated off the pace early and fought late to win at Delaware Park last out. Her only bad dirt race lately has come on a wet track, something she won’t have to worry about here. The main speeds in here are #6 Flat Discount (5-1), who has led and tired in her last few races, and Need a Marker, who doesn’t run nearly as well when she doesn’t get to the front, which will be hard to do with Flat Discount in the race. Irish Lace should be able to pick up their pieces. #7 Some Is Nine (2-1) lasted a lot longer than one might’ve thought last out, as she set the pace and ended up second behind odds-on choice Viking Queen. She’ll likely try to prompt the pace on the outside.

RACE 4: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

7-5-4-2

#7 Summerstateofmind (12-1) was completely ignored in the betting on debut. He went off at 54-1; the second-biggest longshot in the field was 17-1. However, he outran his odds and then some, closing for second behind only a loose gate-to-wire winner. He ran a respectable 73 that day, and Tim Keefe runners generally improve second time out. He’s worth a shot at likely inflated odds. Most of the money will go to #5 Regalo (8-5), and not without reason. He’s a great-grandson of Jersey-bred legend Jersey Girl and sold for $280,000 at this May’s Timonium sale. He’s had some sharp consistent workouts at Laurel Park. #4 Inveigled (7-2) has two bullets within his last three drills for Jane Cibelli. I’ll watch the board on him with curiosity.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $25,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-1A-2-4

The only question about this race is how #6 Chocolate Shake (2-1) will do in his first start since falling at Delaware in early July. His normal race absolutely smokes these. He’s had two good workouts at his home base since then, and is dropping from second-level allowance company, so he should be ready to fire his best shot. #1A Pudge Boy Palace (8-1) struggled around two turns last out, then faced a very tough first-level field two races ago. Take those races out, and his form is much better than that of anyone else with the exception of Chocolate Shake. He looks well-suited for this distance. #2 Shackinthebox (15-1) was a strong second behind an odds-on choice first off the layoff two races back. He returns to the big track after a dull try at Timonium, and his usual low-80s figures and good late punch make him a threat to shake up the exotics at a price.

RACE 6: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS

8-5-14-12

#8 Spicy Margarita (6-1) was done in by a bad break and a wide trip last out. With a cleaner start today, this speedy mare is a threat to take them all the way. Mark Salvaggio will ship Iywaan in today’s feature race, and he’ll bring along #5 Mundle of Joy (6-1). She improved dramatically to win on dirt last outing in her third start off the layoff. There’s lots of speed drawn to her inside, but she should be able to sit just off the leaders and get a nice trip. #14 Hot Lookin Royal (12-1) crossed the wire first two times in a row at Laurel park at the summer meet, but showed little last out at Timonium. She should also benefit from a return to the larger surface.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

7-1A-2-3

Just over two years ago, #7 Murray (1-1) looked like the latest Chosen One for Bob Baffert, and went off as the odds-on choice in the Del Mar Futurity. However, he was well-beaten that day. He hasn’t won since his maiden-breaking score, though he finally started racing regularly again earlier this year and has run in the mid/upper-80s consistently. He’s had back-to-back bullet drills to prepare for his debut for Brittany Russell, and will be tough to beat if he runs his usual race. #1A Aequor (3-1) ran well in every start at Monmouth Park this summer, winning back-to-back races with figures in the 90s, then closing ell for second in his most recent. He has a strong closing kick, but a very fast early pace is almost a requirement, and he might not get it. #2 Find Faith (6-1) went gate-to-wire at 32-1 first off the layoff last out, and is the main speed in this race.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

5-3-6-2

This field is just a notch below the one we saw in the Polynesian Stakes on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of these win a stakes here before year’s end. #5 Iywaan (4-1) has worn down loose leaders to win back-to-back races, most recently chasing down #3 All Threes (2-1) to win last out. It’s likely a similar situation will play out here. All Threes – who got run down by Polynesian winner Double Crown last out – will set the pace, and Iywaan will run him down in the final yards. #6 Offaly Cool (5-1) ran a career-best 99 when second at Parx last out. He should also sit close to the pace.

RACE 9: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

8-9-11-6

#8 Oh Mrs. Maisel (7-5) makes her first start since early March here. She ran some big races near the pace over the winter, and should be the controlling speed. #9 Cynergy’s Electra (8-5) consistently runs in the mid-70s and will pick up any pieces left late by Oh Mrs. Maisel. #11 Cumberland Falls (5-2) drops from first-level allowance company and broke her maiden going away around two turns on dirt at Monmouth in May.

LATEST NEWS