Delaware Park picks and analysis: September 26, 2023
Joe Parisi- September 27, 2023
Live racing at Delaware Park kicks off May 24 and runs through late October.
Once again this year, we will have Delaware Park picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the venerable track. Today’s card features eight races, and first post is 12:30 EDT.
Today’s carryovers: None
Race #1 Picks: 5-7-4-2
In this optional claiming/starter allowance race one mile and 70 yards, #5 Paradise Pride (2-1) has won his last four starts and is undefeated at Delaware with four wins. He is going to have some pressure on the front end today, so a victory won’t be easy. Although we think he is the most likely winner, he is far from a sure thing. #7 El Hermano (8-1) is a closer who could swoop in and pick up the pieces if the speed falters. He has been running against tougher at Monmouth, and his closing style may work well against this field. #4 King Cairo (3-1) is another speed horse. He finished behind a couple others here three back but has been running better since that race.
Race #2 Picks: 2-8-7-1
In this $6250 claiming race at one mile, #2 Musical Cat (9-2) is taking a class drop. She showed speed but faded against better horses and may have a slight class advantage against this group. She should be able to get the lead today can win if she controls the pace. #8 Heleonortiz (7-2) has been running well and just missed last time out. She has early speed and should be considered. #7 Chica Rabiosa (5-2) will be back running for trainer Rudy Sanchez-Salamon after being away from him for two races. She ran fairly well for this trainer when she had a second- and two third-place finishes over the summer, and she fits well here.
Race #3 Picks: 1-6-5-7 In this first-level allowance/optional claiming race at six furlongs, #1 Massimo (3-1) will be making his first start for Brittany Russell. He has not raced since last year but has been working well since June. This colt has lots of back class, and if he is in shape, he should defeat this field. #6 Cloud Music (2-1) has three wins in six starts since being claimed by Jamie Ness. The frontrunner will take the lead and challenge the others to track him down. #5 Motivating (6-1) is coming back from a long break but has been working well, and Michael Stidham wins at 27% in 45 tries when bringing back horses who have been away for 180 days or more.
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Race #4 Picks: 8-9-2-7
In this $16,000 starter allowance race at five furlongs for fillies and mares that has been taken off the turf and will be conducted on the main track, #8 Golden Tabby (6-5) has been running well under the training of Jamie Ness. She ran second in a $100,000 Pennsylvania-bred stakes race in last. This filly looks like a solid favorite in this race and we have her on top. #9 Awesome Pic (5-1) has a win in a route here this summer and had some good turf performances in Florida earlier this year. #2 Awesome View (8-1) didn’t like Timonium but is now returning to Delaware where her speed figures say she will be competitive with this group.
Race #5 Picks: 4-3-10-8
In this $100,000 allowance race for Delaware certified two-year-old fillies at six furlongs, #4 Just Great (3-2) won going away at this distance in her debut. She has a sharp workout since that win, and there is no reason to believe she can’t repeat that effort. #3 Lucky Cougar (15-1) had a nice win at Thistledown in her debut and has been working well since that race. She looks well placed here. #10 Still Game (8-1) posted a nice closing win for Lynn Ashby in her debut and should improve off that effort
Joe’s Notes
- Delaware canceled this past Saturday because of the storm…
- Pedro Nazario led all trainers last week with three wins and has 11 at the meet, tying him for sixth…
- Jockey Daniel Centeno went 3-for-4 last week – the most wins of any rider – with an average payoff of $13.30…
Race #6 Picks: 10-5-4-1
In this $16,000 N2L claiming race at one mile and 70 yards that was taken off the turf and will be contested on the main track, most of the field are plodders without much speed. #10 Husband Material (2-1) almost won on the dirt here three back and then showed some early speed at Saratoga before fading. Repeating either of those races might be enough to win today, and we have him on top. #5 Coronova (9-2) had a good recent race on the turf and was facing better competition on the dirt over the summer. He may have a slight class advantage on dirt over some of the other runners today. One to consider. #4 Hexagon (6-1) had a decent race at Penn National in last and was running well at Gulfstream in the spring. A possible contender.
Race #7 Picks: 3-8-4-5
In this $100,000 allowance race for Delaware certified two-year-olds at six furlongs, #3 Give it a Whirl (5-2) won two races easily before running 4th in the Sapling Stakes. One of those wins was a 7 ¼-length victory in his maiden special debut here at Delaware Park. This looks like a top contender, and we think he will prevail today. #8 Copper Tax (3-2) won by eight lengths here a few weeks ago with a 76 speed figure. That was an impressive win, and if he can repeat that race, he has a good chance for the top spot. #4 Thunder Lad (15-1) has a nice win in the slop at Laurel in July, and if the track is sloppy today he might run better than his odds predict.
Race #8 Picks: 8-2-6-5
In this $6250 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares at 5 ½ furlongs, there is no obvious standout. We usually don’t like betting first-time starters, but we can’t land on a horse we like in this race. So we are going to go with #8 April’s Gold (6-1), who has been working slow, but Lynn Ashby has won with three of twelve maiden claimer first-time starters, and we are going to take a flyer on this filly. If she has any speed at all she might best this group. #2 Providing (9-5) had a rough trip and still managed to run second in her last at Timonium. A possible contender. #6 Rain of Blessing (3-1) is still a maiden after 33 races but may get a small piece of the pie today.
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