LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: october 7, 2023

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$0

Jackpot Super High 5 — $0

Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

13-6-9-4 (DIRT: 15-10-4-7)

We’re just one week away from the Jim McKay Maryland Million. Let’s try to boost our bankrolls for the big day on this 10-race program. #13 Spirit of Power (15-1) closed well for third first off a brief layoff last out at Colonial Downs, and broke her maiden going two turns at Gulfstream Park earlier this year. I don’t know if she’s being overlooked because she’s on the also-eligible list, but her brisnet speed and pace figures make sure a serious threat if she draws in. #6 Carmel Sunrise (5-2) has run no worse than a 73 in her four grass starts since joining the Hugh McMahon barn earlier in the year. She was dull in the stretch against better last out at Colonial, but should be right there against these types. #9 Hazelmoor Beach (9-2) closed well for second despite a wide trip, but got outkicked by Proper Strom, who rallied from 17 lengths out of it to win it. This one is one of the lighter-raced horses in the field.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $25,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

3-5-2-1

#3 Shiny Slam (4-1) showed a pretty dramatic change of pace in her last start. Usually a front-runner, she was bumped at the start and knocked towards the back of the pack. However, she closed with a rush to win with a career-best 86, the second straight race where she improved dramatically. Andres Chavez, in his first American ride, has the mount. #5 Everlys Girl (1-1) makes her first start for David Jacobson after previously racing in California. She ran back-to-back 83s in her last two starts despite wide trips. She has to be respected, but her figures are not that much better than those of the others to justify the low price. #2 Loving Cup (6-1) won going away last out with a sharp late rally, and is in ascendant form with tactical speed.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

12-11-3-5 (DIRT: 8-4-10-1)

Graham Motion has both of my top picks. #12 Zipadoo (5-2) ran a big race in her first start of the year at Colonial last out. She sat a a nice trip off an honest pace, and made a bit of a premature move before finishing second. While her figure of 81 was earned in favorable circumstances in a vacuum, it’s a pretty strong race for someone coming off almost an eight-month layoff. She’s eligible for further improvement here. Her stablemate, #11 Reconsider Me (3-1), was well-bet in her American debut at Keeneland last out, but was flat. She’s worked well since early August getting ready for her return, and looks to build off the 75 she earned in that Keeneland race. #3 Waridi Candy (10-1) improved to an 81 second off the layoff at Colonial last out. While she got caught for the win, she finished almost two lengths clear of a next-out winner.

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

4-5-6-3

Four of these, including my top two picks, are coming out of the same race at this condition on September 15. The runner-up in that race, #4 P J’s Rider (5-2) plunged in class that day, and ran a big race. She led almost the whole way and got caught late, running a career-best 70 in the process. She’s a serious threat to run them off their feet again. #5 Honor the Truth (8-1) made her first start in more than a year last out, but closed well from far out of it to get fourth, also getting a career-best figure with a 63. She has by far the best late pace figures in the race. #6 Blue Hour (2-1) has shown speed in all three of her starts on grass, and looks like a major pace presence in her dirt debut.

RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)

15-11-7-5 (DIRT: 16-6-13-10)

He’ll need some help drawing into this one, but if he does, #15 King Covee (3-1) will be tough to beat. He’s run at least a 76 twice in his last three starts; no one else has run that well once on grass at any point in their careers. He made a nice move last out at Colonial, but couldn’t sustain it. #11 Peitrelcina (9-5) put together possibly his best-ever rally last out at Pimlico, closing for second for his third straight figure in the 70s. #7 Fleets Bay (2-1) raced on the pace and held third in his most recent at Colonial. He might find himself on a clear lead in a race without much other speed.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $25,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

1-2-4-9

#1 By Its Absence (8-1) ran a career-best 81 first off the claim by Mario Serey last out, rallying for second behind North Highland, who finished a credible second on Thursday. His stablemate, Prins Fire, has some cheap speed, and will try to set it up for this one. #2 Duckpins (8-1) was flat after a wide trip against better last out, but ran a big race on the lead to break his maiden first off a long layoff in his prior outing. #4 Nick’s Little Boy (9-2) ran a big mark of 84 in his lone start on this track, which came in his maiden-breaking score in early July.

RACE 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

4-11-12-1 (DIRT: 11-9-3-4)

#4 Live Fire (6-1), one of a few in here who made their last start at Penn National, is the only one who has run in the 80s in each of their last three grass starts. He’s narrowly missed going five furlongs in his past few starts, and might benefit from some extra distance. #11 Valiant Vinny (3-1) has been unable to convert stalking trips against better in his last few, but has run figures competitive with these, and should benefit from the class drop. #12 Lucci (5-1) has already won twice at this level this year, and will likely be hard-sent to get to the front from the outside.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-6-4-2

Brittany Russell trains both of my top picks. #5 Fainor’s Filets (5-2) lasted through pace pressure to break her maiden at second asking in sharp style. She’s one of two in here to already run at least a 76 on dirt. Her stablemate, #6 Cap Classique (5-1), cleared her maiden condition at first asking on grass last out, converting a great stalking trip. If Fainor’s Filets falters on the lead, she’ll take full advantage. #4 Beachfront Breeze (3-1) ran a huge race in the Keswick Stakes two starts back and just missed, and looks for a rebound off a dull race at Penn National, where she couldn’t change leads and flattened out.

RACE 9: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

11-14-5-1 (DIRT: 7-8-4-14)

#11 Mission Man (9-2), a half-brother to Caravel and Witty, has become a new horse this year. He won easily with a sweeping move at Delaware Park two races back, then ran a career-best 90 last out when fanned extremely wide. He often makes strong middle moves, and will try to sustain one all the way down the stretch this time. #14 Possiblemente (10-1) has won three of his last four on grass between Tampa Bay Downs and Parx. He’s going out for the first time since May 30, but will be a threat at a price if he runs his usual race. #5 Toofareastiswest (2-1) has run in the 80s in each of his five starts, and ran back-to-back figures of 86 and 87 in his last two starts at Saratoga. However, trainer Mike Trombetta is in the midst of a slump. He’s just 2 for his last 33, including an 0-for-21 start to this meet. Yesterday, he sent out the two favorites in the female equivalent of this race, and still couldn’t win. This one is fast enough to break the slump, but it’s still hard to take low odds on a trainer this cold.

RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

6-7-3-2

We’ll wrap things up with the first scheduled two-turn dirt race of the week. #6 Step Ahead (2-1) wore down early leader Great Call last out, but couldn’t hold on to the lead and settled for second. There’s some honest speed in here (including Great Call), so he could work out a nice trip just off the pace. #7 Iceteca (8-1) has closed well off slow paces in his last two races, and is eligible to rally for a slice at a decent number. #3 Sustenance (9-5) consistently runs in the mid-70s, which no one else in the field can do. However, he’s an unknown going two turns.

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