LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: october 14, 2023
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 11:30 a.m.
Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$3,766
Jackpot Super High 5 — $2,917
Late Pick 5 — $8,851
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: MARYLAND MILLION TURF DISTAFF STARTER HANDICAP, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED/SIRED, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
11-4-1-3
Today’s the day we’ve all been waiting for: the 38th Jim McKay Maryland Million! There’s a few defending champions on today’s card, among them #11 Pounding Music (3-1), who is the only representative on the dayfor Hangover Kid. She who fended off Downtown Katie, since stakes-placed, to win last year’s edition. This one was flat in her season debut in early August, but has since bounced back with two big performances, including a going-away victory against similar on this grass course last out. She should once again roll late. #4 Chelichna (6-1), one of three in here and 11 on the day for the late Seville, is also a hard-charging sort, having gotten up in the last jump after a wide trip at Pimlico last out, and narrowly missing in her prior two. She runs very consistent brisnet figures, having put up a career-best 81 in her most recent outing. #1 Nicolar (6-1) goes first off the claim by Hugh McMahon, and surged late for second in her most recent.
RACE 2: MARYLAND MILLION STARTER HANDICAP, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 7 FURLONGS
3-6-9-11
#3 Shady Munni (2-1), by Country Life Farm’s Friesan Fire, has run in the 90s twice in his last three starts, with his only dull race coming coming on the Timonium bullring. The way his last start unfolded, with free-wheeling Bob Marco zooming out and leaving them reeling, he had no chance. However, he won three in a row on this track earlier this year with more honest pace setups. There’s no one in here as fast as Bob Marco, so this one will have every chance to fire his best shot. #6 Clubman (4-1), the lone representative for all-time great Maryland stallion Not For Love, was taken out of his last start, a win at Timonium, by Robert Bailes. This 9-year-old veteran, set to make his 48th start at Laurel, has run credibly against slightly better earlier this year, and has a steady closing style that will make him a threat as long as he stays out of traffic. #9 Disputed Claim (9-2), one of 11 on the day for Northview’s Golden Lad, has converted great trips into dominant victories each time, rapidly rising through his conditions after taking seven tries to break his maiden. He’s running for his third trainer in three starts, in this case Emanuel Geralis, and getting Jevian Toledo aboard for the first time.
- This week’s Midlantic stakes scheduleWhich stakes are taking place this week around the Mid-Atlantic? Answers within.
RACE 3: MARYLAND MILLION LADIES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-SIRED, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)
7-1-10-6
#7 Golden Heart (5-1), by Golden Lad, set the early pace and just barely held on to win at Delaware Park last out, her third victory in her last four grass starts. She ran an 88 that day, far and away the best last-out mark in the field, and the second straight race where she ran a lifetime-top by a good margin. Without much other speed in here, she should be able to set her own terms once again, and will try to set slower fractions than she did last time. Jersey-bred #1 Precious Avary (7-2), by Country Life’s Divining Rod, is a perfect 2-for-2 on the lawn, most recently taking the Jersey Girl Handicap on the lead at Monmouth Park. She set the pace through easy fractions that day and fended off 2022 Jersey-bred Horse of the Year Bramble Bay to win. She’s not likely to get that easy of a setup today, but she’s shown tactical speed before and will try to keep Golden Heart honest. #10 Livelovenlaughter (4-1) has a decent shot of drawing in off the also-eligible list (remember, also-eligibles can only draw in if the race drops below eight Maryland-sired starters!). She wore down Money’s Worth in the stretch last out, but couldn’t fend off the late surge of Circle Home, holding second with a career-best 87. She should rate towards the pace on the outside and pounce on the turn.
RACE 4: MARYLAND MILLION DISTAFF STARTER HANDICAP, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 7 FURLONGS
10-14-9-4
#10 Dulce Kiara (7-2), by Bandbox, took a slight step up in class to Maryland-bred allowance company last out. She raced wide on the pace and held clear to win her third start in a row, and hit the exacta for the 11th time this year in 14 starts. She’s overcome some wide trips in her last few starts, so the post position shouldn’t be much of an impediment, and she’ll be in prime position to make her move on the turn. #14 Utterly Enchanting (9-2), by Despite the Odds, goes out for the same team that won this race last year: Michael Scheffres, Carlos Mancilla, and Jaime Rodriguez. This one has been very consistent as of late, with figures between 79 and 81 in her last four starts, and was a solid pace-chasing second in a four-horse field at Delaware last out. #9 Bella Bettina (6-1) saved all the ground and rallied to upset a Maryland-bred allowance field last out. She might have a hard time getting that kind of ground-saving trip again, but her late pace figures are consistently strong.
RACE 5: MARYLAND MILLION TURF, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-SIRED, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)
8-6-2-10
#8 Crabs N Beer (7-2), by Murmur Farm’s Blofeld, hasn’t won this year, but it hasn’t been for lack of trying. He might’ve been best two starts back in the Find Stakes, when he was beaten a neck after getting carried out on the first turn by #2 Wicked Prankster (6-1). He still closed well and lost to the classy Field Pass. His prior two races this year were similarly sharp, including a near-miss first off a six-month layoff in mid-June. He has the best figures in this race, and everything’s pointing towards him finally going to the winner’s circle. #6 Fletcher (8-1), also by Blofeld, faced a strong field in his grass debut, the Penn Mile, and secured third at 98-1. He hasn’t raced since that June 2 effort, but has worked well at Fair Hill since then for Chuck Lawrence. The aforementioned Wicked Prankster, by Mosler, won this race in gate-to-wire fashion last year. He hasn’t won since, but has been working very well since being pulled up in the Find, and should be hard-sent early by Yomar Ortiz.
RACE 6: MARYLAND MILLION LASSIE, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, MD-SIRED, 6 FURLONGS
9-1-2-6
The first 2-year-old race of the day is a wide-open affair, as these types are wont to be. #9 Old Bay (12-1), a daughter of Golden Lad, has finished second four straight times to start her career, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle. However, she’s run well every time, earning figures int he 70s three times. Last out in the Small Wonder allowance, she just missed by a neck behind Just Great, who would likely be odds-on if she were here, despite a wide trip. If she’s anywhere near her morning line, she’ll make a fantastic bet. #1 Remember Me (5-1), by Imagining, ran a huge race in the Keswick Stakes two starts back, dueling all the way down the stretch and ultimately losing by a half-length, with a giant 85. She declined a bit last out when Just Great ran her off her feet, but she’s had a good workout since then should show plenty of speed from the rail. #2 Lucky Cougar (12-1), by Northview’s Madefromlucky, was a game third behind Just Great and Old Bay in the Small Wonder last out, and ships back here from her Thistledown base for Jason DaCosta. Ohio-based Rocco Bowen is named on this filly.
- “Miracle” horse All Caps wins first in two yearsAll Caps nearly died from an infection two years ago. So how did she get to the winner’s circle at Charles Town Saturday? “A miracle,” says her owner.
RACE 7: MARYLAND MILLION SPRINT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, MD-SIRED, 6 FURLONGS
7-4-2-8
Last year’s Nursery winner, #7 Johnyz From Albany (6-1), a son of Blofeld, looks like he’s really coming into his own. He turned in a breakthrough effort last out in a second-level sprint at Pimlico, cruising to victory by 5 1/4 lengths with a career-best 96. He’ll have to deal with some pace pressure here, but he looks fast enough to withstand it, and could turn in another giant effort today. He’ll likely go off at a better price than the classiest member of the field, #4 Twisted Ride (9-5), by Northview’s Great Notion. He’s won three stakes races this year, fighting gamely in the stretch and running big figures each time. He got caught up in the pace in the five-furlong Rumson Stakes at Monmouth last out and flattened out, but if Andy Hernandez keeps him in striking position, he’s got the heart needed to prevail. #2 Seven’s Eleven (10-1) was extraordinarily impressive last out, crushing a Maryland-bred allowance field in his second start off a 5 1/2-month layoff. This 3-year-old son of Bandbox showed flashes of brilliance earlier this year, but now looks ready to put it all together and could sit a very sweet trip.
RACE 8: MARYLAND MILLION TURF SPRINT, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-SIRED, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
3-14-5-2
This race starts the late pick 5, with a carryover! Most of the attention will go to #5 Witty (9-5), a son of Great Notion, and Sky’s Not Falling, by Seville. Those two finished 1-2 in the September 16 Ben’s Cat Stakes at Pimlico in an exciting stretch battle. However, Witty regressed in that race, running an 85 in his first victory of the year. Given his prior tendency to finish second (he had five seconds in seven starts on the year prior to the Ben’s Cat), it’s possible he runs back to his level of competition, and at low odds, it’s a risky proposition that he’ll outgame them. Sky’s Not Falling is a bit consistent, so I’ll try to beat the big two with #3 Cynergy’s Star (8-1), another offspring of Great Notion. He returned to the grass for the first time in a while last out int he Meadow Stable Stakes at Colonial, and closed gamely for second, losing to the classy Determined Kingdom by a neck with an impressive 92. He was in good form on dirt prior to that, having taken a second-level sprint two starts back after a nice trip. He has one of the best closing kicks in the field and will take full advantage of the long stretch run. #14 Whenigettoheaven (15-1), the “other” Mike Trombetta and a son of Street Magician, has consistently run in the 80s all year and should get a good trip stalking the pace on the outside.
RACE 9: MARYLAND MILLION NURSERY, 2-YEAR-OLDS, MD-SIRED, 6 FURLONGS
6-11-4-5
#6 Kohler’s (9-2) a son of Bandbox shipping in from Parx, hasn’t run a bad race in two starts. He pressed the pace on debut and ended up second to Notice of Action, who returned to win the Prince Lucky Stakes on Pennsylvania Derby day. Kohler’s also ran that day, in a maiden special weight, and held on for third after a three-way early duel through honest fractions. He adds blinkers here and should once again be forwardly-placed. #11 Full Proof (6-1), by Anchor & Hope Farm’s Bourbon Courage, improved sharply second time out, going gate-to-wire in a field that included well-regarded Arnaud Delacour and Brittany Russell trainees. He might not be able to get away with as easy a lead as last time, but his ceiling is very high. #4 Catahoula Moon (4-1), by Golden Lad, is by far the most well-regarded of the Jerry Robb trainees, and the one that Xavier Perez will be aboard. He was a solid second behind the much-hyped Boy Magic last out, running an improved figure for the third consecutive race.
RACE 10: MARYLAND MILLION DISTAFF, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-SIRED, 7 FURLONGS
8-10-3-5
Even though it’s not technically the feature, this is the best race of the day in my book. While plenty of attention and love will go towards Luna Belle, a daughter of Great Notion and a two-time Maryland-bred champion, I’m more inclined to look at her stablemate, #8 Response Time (7-2), by Country Life’s Mosler. Also bred by Country Life, she was impressive in victory in the Timonium Distaff last out, beating the speedy Malibu Beauty (who’s also in here) for early position, and then holding sway to win with a career-best 97. That’s right around the range she ran when she dominated some of the best female sprinters on the grounds over the winter. If she’s back to her old self, she’ll be tough. Her most serious competition will come from last year’s Maryland-bred Horse of the Year, #10 Fille d’Esprit (2-1), also by Great Notion. She made her first start off a seven-month layoff last out in what amounted to an exhibition, easily handling a pair of rivals. She won this race last year and is a 13-time winner on this track, often making an explosive move on the far turn. If she makes that kind of move again, she could prove hard to hold off. #3 Mavilus (20-1) by Orientate, won the Conniver Stakes in March in a 26-1 upset with a dramatic late rally. She has the best late pace figures in the race, and while I don’t know if she’s fast enough late to catch Response Time and Fille d’Esprit, she could shake up the exotics at a price.
RACE 11: MARYLAND MILLION CLASSIC, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-SIRED, 1 1/8 MILES
2-1-8-6
#2 Double Crown (9-5), by Bourbon Courage, has a bit of a reputation for being inconsistent. However, if you take out his recent starts where he clearly didn’t belong, you’ll see that he’s enjoyed plenty of success against these types. Most recently, he won the Polynesian Stakes going away over some classy horses (including one of his rivals today, last year’s Classic winner Ournationonparade), and beat similar rivals in mid-August, running in the 90s each time. With plenty of pace signed on, he should get a great trip just off the early tempo. #1 Market Maven (4-1), by Super Ninety Nine, should also get a nice trip just off the lead. He lost a photo for second in the Alphabet Soup Handicap last out, re-rallying after rating off a loose leader. #8 Loose Ends (8-1), by Divining Rod, sustained a move for a while in victory last out at Delaware, and is in improving form. His ceiling isn’t as high as Double Crown’s, but if that rival doesn’t fire for whatever reason, it’ll be to this one’s benefit.
RACE 12: MARYLAND MILLION TURF STARTER HANDICAP, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
4-7-9-1
We’ll bring it home with a big field. #4 Sorolla (10-1), by Seville, rallied from well out of it to clear his non-winners of two condition despite a slow early pace. Three of his four best figures have come in his grass starts this year. #7 Bonded (8-1), by Blofeld, should get a nice trip near the pace and takes a drop in class after facing some salty rivals last out. #9 Nick Papagiorgio (7-2), a son of Outflanker, returned to the grass recently after some disappointing dirt tries, and turned in a pair of solid second-place efforts in Pennsylvania, making up plenty of ground in the stretch both times. He has loads of back-class, having won the Find Stakes last year.
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Good morning John. Happy Maryland Million Day. I appreciate your comments about Dulce Kiara. I hope you are right. Thanks.
Well, here we are.
1: 2-11-4-8 – Say what you will about the quality of the fields she’s faced, but the 2 has found a new home on turf. Should get a perfect stalking trip under Cruz and inch away at the end. (It also doesn’t hurt that her dam used to be one of my favs back in the day.)
2: 6-3-13-9 (originally the 11 in fourth but for Thursday’s race) – This is the year. I’ve been telling everybody since 2017 that the 6 horse would win a Million race, picked him every single time he’s run on this day, and he’s in good form, as well as 4-for-14 on the wet track we might get today. Bailes is 1-for-2 off the claim, and oh yeah, who’s the horse he won with for that stat? Throw the 13 in the exotics.
3: 4-3-6-1 – Good on wet turf, good enough to at least cross the wire first in a stake, and in a race full of inconsistency she’s the play. Not a good price but if we get close to the ML we’re in good shape. 1 and 7 will not like the distance, 6 is last year’s winner but I can’t see her taking it today.
4: 12-10-9-14 – I’m shocked that no one likes the 12 enough to put her in their picks. She’s turned into a horse that will appreciate the extra distance, ridden by a top jockey and she’s been in good form in the Gorham barn. I like the 10’s slop proficiency and consistency, and the 9’s closing kick as well.
5: 8-6-9-3 – Everyone bets the name but no one looks at the turf resume deep enough. Lost to two Brittanys and a Mike Maker, gets a little bit of a freshening and has the distance capability. 6 should be a good price (G2 3rd @ 98-1!) and 3 is just a hunch play for me.
6: 9-6-1-5 – Oh boy this one is wide open. The 9 is too good to lose today, Shuman knows the family and this should be her breakthrough. 5 is good at a price because Hillwood/Jenkins is always live on Million day.
7: 4-7-2-3 – Listen. I stayed away from FTLOB last year, left him off my ticket because of my Parx shipper-phobia and his lackluster ‘21 effort, and he proved me wrong. And I’m not gonna make the same mistake twice. Hernandez is an excellent speed/stalk rider and he should be part of a cracking pace. While I like the 7 almost as much as you do, I’m not falling for the Parx trap again. Toss the improving 2 in there at a good price.
8: 5-3-9-14 – This race really does go through the top 3, doesn’t it? I was going to pick the 3 or 9, and I was really impressed with the 3’s move on a sometimes tough to close Colonial turf, but I was there for the 5’s Monmouth race in July and that was good enough to win here (1:01 3/5 for 5 1/2!). Just please don’t break slow again…
9: 6-4-12-11 – Maybe a bias because of my preference for the Jersey Shore town prevalent in this horse’s connex/breeding/name, but John Servis usually has them live when he ships down here, and is extremely dangerous with the blinkers on. Didn’t run a terrible race on PA Derby day. 12 and 11 are thrown in there for outside speed.
10: 2-8-1-10 – The 2 and 1’s redemption arc! My philosophy has always been that if you’re the best horse in the race layoffs don’t matter, and that is certainly the case for the 2. If Russell keeps the mount, he should have this one ready to pounce around the far turn, ready to catch the 5, 6, and 8’s pace. And hey – wet track, the 1’s looking good! Was victim of speed favoring track in last, gets more focus and should also get a good closing trip.
11: 6-2-4-8 – Who do we appreciate? It’s a horse who always tries hard at longer distances, gets a patient rider (named on him), and dominated last time he was in state bred company. The 4 has turned into a speed-and-fade and the 2 is SUPER inconsistent to be a 9/5 fav, so Ham Smith should secure his elusive Classic win here.
12: 5-3-9-7 – I too like a 10-1 shot, but one that doesn’t totally depend on a deep closing kick to get it done. I learned my lesson back in June with him, and this could be one for the Pimlico trainers here.
Glhf and happy Million day to everyone! 😃