Delaware Park picks and analysis: October 18, 2023
Joe Parisi- October 18, 2023
Live racing at Delaware Park kicks off May 24 and runs through late October.
Once again this year, we will have Delaware Park picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the venerable track. Today’s card features eight races, and first post is 12:30 EDT.
Today’s carryovers: None
Race #1 Picks: 1-4-5-3
In this #12,500 claiming race at six furlongs, #1 Touchdown Montage (9-5) found $20,000 claimers a little too tough, now dropping down the claiming ladder and fits well here. Owner/trainer Jose Rodriguez has won four of 13 at Delaware this year. #4 Reckless Place (7-2) faltered at Parx after a two-month break and is now coming to Delaware and getting Sam Marin back on top. We think he will improve today. #5 Moon Connection (5-2) has been away from racing for a couple of months since he was racing at Canterbury and won his last by 8 ½ lengths and ran a 71 speed figure. He will be dangerous if he is fit and ready.
Race #2 Picks: 12-8-7-1
In this $12,500 maiden claiming race for two-year-old fillies at six furlongs, #12 Jassai (12-1) has been showing early speed in grass routes and is now sprinting on the dirt. Trainer Gerard Ochoa has won at 17% for a $5.09 ROI when moving form turf to dirt and we have this filly on top. #8 Miss Omaha (8-1) had a very rough trip last time and was eased but had a nice race at Monmouth in the slop prior to that race. We look for her to improve today and be in the mix, #7 Tidbit (5-1) showed early speed with better at Colonial Downs and looks like a contender today.
Race #3 Picks: 1-6-4-2
In this $16,000 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares at 5 ½ furlongs, #1 Three Carats (5-2) has struggled since winning a maiden special race in July. She has flashed speed against better horses at Monmouth. Now dropping way down the claiming ladder and coming to Delaware where she might have a small class advantage over this group. #6 Lady Lancer (7-2) is moving back to dirt after struggling on turf since her maiden win. The class drop should help today. #4 Stephanie My Love (6-1) will be making her debut at Delaware. She has some good races this summer and could be in the mix.
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Race #4 Picks: 10-8-7-1
In this $38,000 maiden special race for two-year-old fillies at six furlongs, #10 Sheza Nasty Girl (10-1) made a closing bid in a $50,000 maiden claiming race but fell a little short. Now she will get an extra half furlong and with a better start she could win today. #8 Burning Embers (8-1) is a first-time-starter for Brittany Russell. This filly has been working very well with several bullet works, one at five furlongs. She should be in the mix. #7 Arch Street (7-2) has two good races at this level but was not able to win. Went off as the odds-on favorite last time. She looks very competitive with this group.
Race #5 Picks: 8-3-5-1
In this $12,500 claiming race for fillies and mares at six furlongs, #8 Big Ambition (7-2) is coming from Parx where she ran second at this class level in last. Two back she ran third in a $20,000 claiming race here at Delaware. She has competitive speed figures and has a good chance to win today. #3 Fast Corey (5-2) was running well until she found $25,000 claimers too tough in last. Now coming to Delaware Park and dropping to $12,500. This looks like a good spot. #5 Mystic Seaport (9-2) won on the turf in last and is now coming to Delaware and dropping in class. This filly has a lot of back class and she may have a class advantage over this group.
Joe’s Notes
- Carol Cedeno won five times last week to pace all riders. The veteran was 5-for-18 with a positive ROI…
- With a carryover coming in, the early Pick 5 returned $4,293 on a 50-cent wager. Key horses in the sequence were Ventilator ($17) and Queen’s Dream ($15).
Race #6 Picks: 8-4-7-6
In this optional claiming/starter allowance race at 5 ½ furlongs, #8 Brother Conway (7-2) is in good form. He won a first-level allowance race at Laurel convincingly in last posting a 93 speed figure. He seldom runs a bad race and he looks the best of this group. #4 Golden Candy (20-1) ran well in an allowance race for Delaware certified horses. He has had several good races at Delaware this year but has not been able to win. He looks like a top contender today. #5 The Judge and Jury (5-1) can run on grass or dirt and seldom runs a bad race. His speed figures are competitive. One to consider.
Race #7 Picks: 4-3-7-1
In this optional claiming/starter allowance race at one mile and 70 yards, #4 Tough Tickets (4-1) has been running on the turf but has proven he can also run well on dirt. In his last try he ran third in the Cape Henlopen Stakes. Now he is moving back to dirt and getting class relief, and we have him on top today. #3 Bobby G (8-1) was away for two months before running a closing third last time out. The nine-year-old got off to a slow start in that race, and if he can get a better start today, he should be able to compete with this group. #7 Lease (8-1) will be making his first start at Delaware after running well at Parx. One to consider.
Race #8 Picks: 3-5-2-4
In this $12,500 maiden claiming race at six furlongs, #3 Rebel Joke (3-1) was running well before taking a two-month break. If he is fit and ready to run, he looks like the best of this group. #5 West Star (8-1) had some good races at Monmouth before trying the turf. He fits well here and looks like a contender. #2 Seax (4-1) is in decent form but is moving up in class today, He should be in the mix if he runs his best.
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