Delaware Park picks and analysis: October 21, 2023
Joe Parisi- October 21, 2023
Live racing at Delaware Park kicks off May 24 and runs through late October.
Once again this year, we will have Delaware Park picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the venerable track. Today’s card features eight races, and first post is 12:30 EDT.
Today’s carryovers: Early Pick 5: $13,108; Late Pick 5: $6,090
Race #1 Picks: 1-2-3-4
In this $16,000 claiming race for fillies and mares at one mile, #1 Fire at Midnight (6-1) has been running on the turf. After winning her maiden race she found $20,000 claimers too tough. She has won on the dirt in a race taken off the turf. Trainer Michael Gorham has won at 19% in 37 tries when moving from turf to dirt. She looks like a contender #2 Chez Soleil (4-1) is another turf runner moving to dirt. She had a couple of good efforts this year. Trainer James Lawrence has won at 16% in 44 tries with horses that are moving from turf to dirt. #3 Jess’s Gypsy Girl (8-1) ismoving back to dirt after trying the turf and will now stretch out. The class drop could make her competitive with this field.
Race #2 Picks: 2-5-4-6
In this $5000 N2Y claiming race at five and a half furlongs, #2 Forest Survivor (2-1) has recently been running against tougher horses at Monmouth. He won a race taken off the turf and has previously won several races on the synthetic surface. He appears to have a class edge over this group. He has a recent bullet work at Belmont and we have him on top. #5 Bustinupishardtodo (8-1) won his only race at Delaware with a 73 speed figure, He has three wins in nine lifetime starts. Trainer Carlos David has five wins in eight starts at Delaware this year. He looks like a contender. #4 Great Go Go (8-1) will be making his second start for Elliot Sullivan after the claim. He struggled in last but should improve in his second start for this trainer.
Race #3 Picks: 5-4-2-6
In this maiden special race for two-year-olds at one mile and 70 yards, #5 Smooth Player (9-5) closed well after a poor start and just missed in his debut race at Monmouth. He has a couple of works since that race and he could be ready for a big run. #4 Pappy’s Revenge (8-1) showed early speed but gave way late in his debut race. We expect improvement and think he will be in the mix. #2 Eddie Felson (7-2) has two races under his belt and is improving. That racing experience should help him and if he improves further he could surprise today.
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Race #4 Picks: 3-2-4-6
In this $15,000 N2L claiming race at five and a half furlongs, #3 The Great Gazoo (5-2) rallied in last but could not quite get up to win with $16,000 claimers. Now running at the same class level and he fits well with these. He has a good chance to win today. #2 Austin From Boston (7-2) had some trouble in his last race after winning a maiden race two back. In his most recent he got bumped around at the start and appeared to have trouble changing leads in the stretch. If he gets a trouble-free trip today, he could be dangerous. #4 Drama’s Prayer (9-5) is trained by Jorge Delgado who has 8 wins in 19 starts this meet. He has been running on the grass, but does have a win and a place on the dirt in two lifetime starts at Delaware. His speed figures are solid and he looks like a contender.
Race #5 Picks: 6-3-7-8
In this $6250 claiming race at five and a half furlongs, #6Dart (7-2) will be going for two straight after winning last time out. Trainer Wayne Potts wins at 23% in 119 tries for a $2.17 ROI when going for two wins in a row. He has been running well for most of the year, and we have him on top. #3On Our Way Boyz (9-2) has struggled in his last two but was running well at Penn National. He may have a class advantage over these as he is dropping to the lowest class level of his career. #7Grand Manner(5-2) is in very good form and ran a lifetime best Beyer figure in last. One to consider.
Joe’s Notes
- Appendage, with apprentice Felix Astudillo up for trainer Jason Smith, blew up the toteboard in race four, paying $92.80 to win and triggering early and late Pick 5 carryovers…
- Jockey Jairo Rendon won a pair, including a maiden race on impressive 2yo first-timer Little Ni, a Mohaymen gelding who won by a half-dozen in a fast time…
Race #6 Picks: 6-2-1-3
In this optional claiming/starter allowance race for fillies and mares at one mile and 70 yards, #6 Tiz Herself (6-5) has won seven of eight races this year and looks very tough here. This mare has superior speed figures to all of her foes and she looks much the best today. #2 Our Fantasy (7-2) has three wins this year. One of those wins was a Delaware Park. This mare is consistent and usually puts in a good effort. She should be in the mix. #1 Chloe Rose (9-2) won her last and is in good form. If she can repeat her last she has a shot today.
Race #7 Picks: 3-5-8-2
In this optional claiming/starter allowance race at five and a half furlongs, #3 Rebel Empire (8-5) lost on a head bob in a Delaware certified allowance race in last while posting an 84 speed figure. Prior to that race, he just missed in several races similar to today’s event. Given the foes he is facing today we think he will get up for the win. #5 Aggrandize (7-2) has been facing tough competition at Parx and Monmouth. He had two wins at Parx when facing competition similar to today’s. The drop in class today should put him in good position to impact this race. #8 Lord Berrier (8-1) has won his last two dirt races and appears to be in good form. One to consider.
Race #8 Picks: 2-5-1-7
In this $20,000 claiming race for fillies and mares at six furlongs, #2 One Tough Dame (2-1) ran well in a $32,000 claiming race here and is moving down to $20,000 today. She should be able to close well and finish first with this group. #5 The Sweaty Fox (3-1) ran third behind One Tough Dame two back and fits well here. She could compete for the win if she can show any improvement. #1 Soul of the Beast (10-1) had three wins in a row on the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs and is in good form. Moving up in class today but could still be involved.
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