LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: november 25, 2023
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$951
Jackpot Super High 5 — $449
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
1-8-5-6
We have three stakes on today’s program, but first, we have undercard business to attend to. #1 Shake It Baby (3-1) won going away second off the Jamie Ness claim last out, pressing the pace at Parx and drawing off to a sharp victory. There’s lots of speed in this one, so Jaime Rodriguez can rate this filly off a potential battle while protecting rail position and then pounce. #8 Made Birdie (20-1) showed improving form over the summer at Monmouth Park, and looks for a rebound off a dull last race at Parx. She usually has some of the best late pace figures in the race, but was completely empty in the lane in her last outing. If you still believe, you’ll get a good price. #5 Fainor’s Filets (2-1) drops in class from first-level allowance company and also has good late speed, but it’s interesting that Brittany Russell didn’t put Sheldon Russell or Jevian Toledo, her usual go-to riders, on this one (Angel Cruz has the mount instead).
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
3-2-5-6
#3 Nottoway (8-5) has won four of his last five races, including a sharp win against similar last out in his first start off the claim by Kieron Magee. His only dull race within his last five came when he was caught impossibly wide throughout at Delaware Park; that’s not terribly likely to happen here. #2 Heads Or Tails (7-2) was a game third against much better two starts ago (losing to a pair of next-out winners, including the very promising Brother Conway), but was caught flat last out. Still, he has the best late pace figures in the field and gets a rider switch to hot-riding Jevian Toledo, who piloted four winners yesterday. #5 Free Square (7-5) has faded after getting pace pressure in his last few starts, but looks fast enough to at least secure the rail and the lead here.
- Sea Dancer gets valuable stakes win in CarouselSea Dancer, a younger half-sis to one of the top turf horses in the country, earned her first stakes win in Saturday’s Carousel at Laurel Park.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
2-9-6-1
Let’s try another Kieron Magee runner. #2 Holey Moley (9-2) ran brisnet figures in the 70s three times on grass last year, and fended off a rival late to secure third as the favorite. He’s making his first dirt start here, and will be tough if his form translates over. #9 Imstillhere (30-1) was far back for most of his debut, but made some mild ground late. He was bred by the Bonsals, better-known for steeplechasers, so he might want to go a bit further than the six furlongs he ran on debut. Who knows if this one-turn mile will suffice, but he should at least turn in an improved effort at a good price. #6 Longworth (8-1) showed little on dirt to begin his career, but has been in improved form on grass lately. It’s entirely possible he can only run that surface, but there’s also a chance he’s made a lot of general progress, and he can run well on both surfaces.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES
6-5-3-7
#6 Charming Way (7-2) has run well in her two starts since getting claimed by Jamie ness. In her most recent race, she shook off pace pressure and held on to win with a career-best 91. She’s never won around two turns, but she should be able to get the distance with the right trip. #5 Haint Blue (8-1) hopes that the track has changed from yesterday, where it appeared to favor speed. She likes to race way off the pace and make one big, late move. She showed little in her last effort, but ran in the 90s in her two prior starts. She should be able to at least get a share at a decent number. #3 I Can Run (3-1) showed speed last out, in a departure from her usual form, and led most of the way before getting caught. She should be forwardly placed once again, but is racing for a cold Claudio Gonzalez barn.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
2-3-4-7
#2 Tweet Away Robin (2-1) rated off the pace and drew off to beat a better field at this level last out. She had been in inconsistent form earlier this year, but since putting together three starts in relatively short order, she’s taken steps forward in each one. #3 Lucky Lorraine (8-1) got up to win despite a wide trip three starts back at Delaware Park, and is the only one in here who has run in the 70s in each of her last four starts. She ran a very solid 76 last out, even though it was a visually unimpressive race, and should be heard from late. #4 Fool Yourself (4-1) drops from the starter optional claiming level and gets a barn switch to Annette Eubanks. She’s struggled against better since coming off a long- layoff in mid-summer, but has back-class and might have enough in the tank to beat these.
RACE 6: CITY OF LAUREL STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS
8-4-5-7
The name of this one is pretty self-explanatory. #8 Giant Mischief (2-1), second in last year’s Springboard Mile, won impressively first off the layoff at Churchill Downs for Brad Cox, and should take another step forward here. There is some early speed to his outside in Byk, but that stopped badly on the lead last out, and doesn’t have the back-class of Giant Mischief. If Byk gives Giant Mischief more trouble than expected, that could set it up for #4 Post Time (9-5), who was a solid third, with a career-best 99, in the Perryville Stakes at Keeneland last out. He’s a perfect 3-for-3 on this track, and at his best has brilliant closing speed, but Giant Mischief might leave him with too much to do late. #5 Let It Ride (5-2) rated off the pace last out in his fist start off the layoff and won going away. He could sit a nice trip near the leaders, or even try to challenge Giant Mischief from his inside.
- “Miracle” horse All Caps wins first in two yearsAll Caps nearly died from an infection two years ago. So how did she get to the winner’s circle at Charles Town Saturday? “A miracle,” says her owner.
RACE 7: SAFELY KEPT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 7 FURLONGS
4-5-7-2
The Maryland-bred 1990 Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion is honored with this race. If #4 Warrior’s Ransom (7-2) can duplicate her Parx form here, she’ll win this one without much drama. She won going away at a mile two starts back with a 101, then just missed behind three-time stakes winner Disco Ebo in her last start. She should get a nice trip near the pace and have every chance to make her move. #5 Howl (4-5) will surely be heavily bet off an impressive maiden win at Keeneland. From the outside post, she rated near the pace and drew off to win by almost eight lengths at first asking, running s very solid 91. This’ll be her first big class test. #7 Apple Picker (5-2) was outclassed in the Raven Run Stakes last out, but was an impressive victress in the Weather Vane Stakes two starts ago. This field looks more her speed.
RACE 8: RICHARD W. SMALL STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES
4-5-6-2
The final stakes of the day pays tribute to the longtime Maryland trainer, best-known as the conditioner of Broad Brush and Concern. #4 Movisitor (12-1), a 3-year-old, has beaten older horses twice in his last three starts. He ran well last out, when he lasted through fast fractions and held on for a nice redemption victory following a disappointing try in the Smarty Jones Stakes two starts ago. If the track is playing like it did yesterday, he’ll be tough to catch. #5 Market Maven (7-2) crossed the wire first in the Maryland Million Classic last out, but was disqualified and placed second behind Ain’t Da Beer Cold (who’s also in here). This one is uber-consistent, having run in the 90s in each of his last nine starts, and has a stalking running style that will serve him well if Movisitor ties. #6 King Kumbalay (9-5) has run at least a 97 in each of his last three starts, including a win in the Alphabet Soup Handicap two starts back, and will be especially dangerous if he’s close to the pace early on.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
2-8-5-1
#2 Frog Town (3-1) won against these types going away at Charles Town two starts ago, and just missed in his first start on this track last out. He’s in ascending form and should sit the trip. #8 Dontinvademyspace (8-1) has won two of his last four starts and run at least a 71 in each race during that stretch. He’ll also be up close to the pace and ready to strike. #5 Island d’Lite (7-2) just missed last out, outfinishing Frog Town in the process, but had showed little in his three starts prior. His form is historically very inconsistent, but at his best, he’s tough, making him a must-use in multi-race bets.
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I really wanted to be at Laurel today, but alas I am swamped with schoolwork, so I’ll offer some quick thoughts.
1: Hard not to go with Ness or Brittany in anything really but I think the 9 might offer value (18 1/2 length maiden breaker!)
2: If I know Kieron I know that one of the two favs will scratch, leaving the door open for the 2 and Toledo’s hot hand.
3: I think we’re done winning for the weekend so I’ll skip the 2 and overlook the Cyrus bias. Either Brittany wins by 10 or Martina springs the upset from the inside.
4: The 2 is one of my favorites just as a horse but the 7 going two turns or really either of the Claudios look decent here.
5: I think you just single the 2 in any horizontal wagers and that’s it.
6: I imagine that Brad Cox will scratch out of here to run in the Churchill spot tomorrow, so the 4 should be back to his old self here.
7: In reality Brittany has two rooting interests in here, and they should be right there – really either of them. Don’t overlook the 3 at a price.
8: I mean, the 6 beat Nimitz Class… and the 1 ran a good race three back for an on-fire duo…
9: The 5 gets the early lead, the 2 stalks, the 4 wins on the drop. Simple as that.
Glhf 😃